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Pattern Jammin' January

Matthew East posted this today on Facebook. I guess I am too worried about what the models show past a couple of days.

I have no changes to the ideas I've had, & the pattern is evolving as expected. This week was the week we began to step down our temps. Our weekend system is then the front guard to a pattern that will, more often than not, likely be cold through late January into February.

Snow and ice fans will likely be rewarded in this upcoming pattern, & this will also be a pattern where some of the winter weather 'threats' could tend to pop up with shorter notice than usual. No guarantees, but if you like snow and ice, I still this upcoming pattern looks as good as it gets at this point.
 
1300m said:
Tons of potential at H5 and copious cold air to work with.

ecmwf_T850_us_9.png
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Absolutely, by far & away the best looking pattern we've had all winter up to now.

As an aside, I've also been one of the unfortunate souls who got to witness first-hand what it was like to be in northern Minnesota during the middle of January when one of these PV lobes dropped the temp to -40F with wind chills in the -60s. Almost instantaneous frostbite.
 
Euro with what looks like a pretty big storm at 216, anyone with maps able to clarify? Snow or ice in the Carolinas? Big TN and deep south snow?
 
Can we get moisture over the top of that cold the big question


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The cold is descending like Viserion swooping down from the Wall. Would this put clippers more into play for the Deep South? Man if we get even a hint of gulf or pacific moisture it’s a powder keg of...well...powder.


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What a wild run - essentially the entire tropospheric PV phases into the base of the trough. It would actually be better for areas further east (GA/SC/NC) for this not to happen and just pieces of energy to rotate/dig down the trough, hopefully setting up a prolonged overrunning event for a large part of the board.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh168-216.gif
 
1300m said:
What a wild run - essentially the entire tropospheric PV phases into the base of the trough. It would actually be better for areas further east (GA/SC/NC) for this not to happen and just pieces of energy to rotate/dig down the trough, hopefully setting up a prolonged overrunning event for a large part of the board.

View attachment 11760
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Fortunately, I don't think we'd have to wait much longer after the end of that run for a storm to show up even if it verified.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Question, is that the end of the run? Does it move into north Georgia?


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The storm is over by the end of the run. What you see on the map is the storm totals for the entire 10 days. The storm center is way north and the precip fizzles out east of the mountains. The cold is also lagging behind a bit for areas east of the mountains. This depiction doesn't usually work out for these areas.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fortunately, I don't think we'd have to wait much longer after the end of that run for a storm to show up even if it verified.
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Very true! Although taken verbatim that would probably favor a very suppressed storm track at D10 and beyond (nonsense to be analyzing haha).
 
A setup like the Euro is showing and Feb 1895 wouldn't be out of the question

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