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Pattern Jammin' January

In terms if energy, 12Z is not the same as 6Z is. Some differences are there. For starters, the energy is a bit slower, and the wave behind it is much more defined and stronger. They may or may not phase this run too which will probably send this thing the way the CMC has it going, or a cutter too far west.
 
Probably going to be really good for West Virginia this run.
 
Storm5 said:
Yep a long duration storm and lots of 40s and rain for us .


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Plenty of time to trend back. Heck, we might all be right back in the game at 18z, who knows.
 
Yeah it looked like on this run, the wave slowed down too much. Now the good thing is, it heads OTS so the northeast doesn't see anything from it.
 
Storm5 said:
Yep a long duration storm and lots of 40s and rain for us .


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Yep. That is the most probable scenario, I think. But there's still time for things to change favorably. 144 hours is a long way away in GFS land.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Wow VA gets 2 days straight powder.
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snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
Here is gfs trend.

4 of the last 5 have been good snows for VA. Only 1 for NC.
0F073013-165A-4E9F-89C4-E5F022126581.gif
The 06z gfs was abt as perfect of timing as you can get. If this slowing trend continues this will progressively cut more and more.
 
Lots to figure out with the timing of this storm, we will continue seeing varying solutions for another 1-2 days as models figure out the timing of all 3 pieces of energy. Meanwhile the CMC drops the motherlode of cold down into the Eastern US. It's dry/cold but man this would be frigid... these are HIGH temperatures.
1547828812975.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Lots to figure out with the timing of this storm, we will continue seeing varying solutions for another 1-2 days as models figure out the timing of all 3 pieces of energy. Meanwhile the CMC drops the motherlode of cold down into the Eastern US. It's dry/cold but man this would be frigid... these are HIGH temperatures.
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That's the key word.... dry
 
I think the possible wave behind the 24-25th wave is the first one that could have the potential to be a legit winter storm for the southern U.S. if it can continue to dig further southwest. AND with a massive snowpack to our north in step-down fashion, it only makes since for the southeast to get in on the next one.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh186_trend.gif

BOTH the op GFS and the FV3 are trying hard on that one. The Euro is much further east and progressive with it, but at this range it's the one to watch. I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z GEFS doesn't have some members with something in the 26th to 28th window.
 
The best thing so far on the 12Z GFS is the developing -NAO by day 10 (see below). That's the good news. The bad news is, we've seen the GFS/EC show a day 10 -NAO several times recently, only to lose it in subsequent runs. Will this one verify?

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_40.png
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Not a good thing I would love for snowpack to expand up north
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tell me why its a good thing the northeast not goig
Poimen said:
The best thing so far on the 12Z GFS is the developing -NAO by day 10 (see below). That's the good news. The bad news is, we've seen the GFS/EC show a day 10 -NAO several times recently, only to lose it in subsequent runs. Will this one verify?

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_40.png
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exactly...we have seen this movie before... keeping fingers crossed
 
WOW!! The GFS develops a strong Greenland blcok in the long range,which would keep storms suppressed. I would like to see west coast ridging with this Greenland block,however the GFS will show a whole different solution in 6 more hours. 500h_anom.na.png
 
GaWx said:
Very rare deep south major snow (3-5" Biloxi/Mobile moving east) hour 384 due to well south low in Gulf but it is hour 384. Fantasy/entertaining.
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100% won’t verify but would be fitting for an El Niño winter, would make it back to back winters with snow along the Gulf Coast.
 
Here's another view of our fully formed -NAO at hour 288. User beware: use with extreme caution:

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_45.png
 
RollTide18 said:
100% won’t verify but would be fitting for an El Niño winter, would make it back to back winters with snow along the Gulf Coast.
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I know these weather boards tend to thrive on hyperbole but how can anyone ever say 100 percent won't verify to anything? You just never know....

The way this winter has gone, Mobile will probably see snow flakes before I do!
 
GFS Clown at 12 z today looks almost identical to last nights 0z. Id say the 6z (could happen) but most likely the southern end of envelope with timing and consensus is what we just saw. Northern side of envelope is the cutter like Canadian has had , where it amps , bundles everything up earlier. None of this sunrises me and should be expected
 
DixieBlizzard said:
I know these weather boards tend to thrive on hyperbole but how can anyone ever say 100 percent won't verify to anything? You just never know....

The way this winter has gone, Mobile will probably see snow flakes before I do!
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Because it’s the 384hr GFS.

Now yes, something similar could happen but we gotta get in the right pattern for that to happen.
 
FV3 seems to be continuing with the gentle shifts away from being as awesome as it was for the western SE. Now it has snow but it mainly looks great for western TN and far western/northern Mississippi.

Also, a few GEFS members are showing something for the 26th-27th. Not many, just a few.

#itsastart

Edit again: Okay, now that I looked harder, it's more than a few, lol.
 
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