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Pattern Jammin' January

Rain Cold said:
That's close to the type of look @pcbjr needs! Have to believe that this is overdone and that the reality will end up being that there is a storm or precipitation event somewhere. But like you said, analyzing D10 is essentially worthless. Cool to see, though.
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Sorry, but I don't know what look I'd like ... LOL ... can you point me to the map or model (or the post itself)?
Thanks!
 
packfan98 said:
Here's the EPS meteogram for Greensboro which highlights the 26th-28th period that @1300 has been talking about. Looks to be over 30 ensemble members with some type of winter weather during that time frame.
View attachment 11770
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Wow that’s really good. @packfan98 can you happen to pull that for Columbia SC for me. I’m really anxious about the Midlands.
 
Truth is how do you even prepare for zero degrees. Never seen that before


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I experienced 13 last January. Any exposed skin turned numb and painful. I had to dress like an Arctic explorer.

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Sleet City USA said:
Coldest temp I've ever experienced is probably about 14 degrees.... man 0 would be something
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I was staying on top of Sugar Mountain one year and it was about -5 with a wind chill in the -20’s. We were spitting on the sliding glass door and it was freezing on contact. Good times
 
Will Rossman said:
Well, 8 is the record low for Baton Rouge airport, so I wouldn't be surprised if North Florida had similar numbers. Teens are somewhat rare here. At least below 18.

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I have lived most of my life in Western GA west of Atlanta and I would say our coldest temp in an average winter was around 14.
 
Actually had time to go over some weather modeling today, caught up on the last week and 1 /2 of runs and I will venture to say, everyone is about to start seeing some very wild solutions. Yes, Wintry solutions. I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing some "historic" type stuff showing up..

Please don't model chase though. They're going to be back and forth in the atmospheric chaos that the modeling is alluding to. I'd use the ensembles for the overall pattern recognition/temperature (PV stuff) and use the operational runs for 500mb energy and ideas at this point.

The higher resolution operational runs are going to pickup on pieces of energy the lower resolution ensembles will just plain miss out on for their forecast. There's a lot of volatility about to float around and small changes to angles, strength, and speed will greatly affect the way these systems track and develop.
 
Shawn said:
Actually had time to go over some weather modeling today, caught up on the last week and 1 /2 of runs and I will venture to say, everyone is about to start seeing some very wild solutions. Yes, Wintry solutions. I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing some "historic" type stuff showing up..

Please don't model chase though. They're going to be back and forth in the atmospheric chaos that the modeling is alluding to. I'd use the ensembles for the overall pattern recognition/temperature (PV stuff) and use the operational runs for 500mb energy and ideas at this point.

The higher resolution operational runs are going to pickup on pieces of energy the lower resolution ensembles will just plain miss out on for their forecast. There's a lot of volatility about to float around and small changes to angles, strength, and speed will greatly affect the way these systems track and develop.
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Miss you man happy to see you back.
 
Hey ladies and gents, just a very friendly reminder things are getting interesting and business is really picking up (which is great btw) but we've been very loose lately but now help us out please.... keep the non-pattern/storm discussion comments in banter please. The reminiscing, how to dress, etc.... again just because traffic is significantly on the increase. Thank you again for flying the SouthernWx Arctic Express
 
James Spann really blew it on his afternoon update. He did show the Euro showing bitter cold in 10 days, but said he didn't see any snow chances in the next 8 ,9, 10 days other than flurries, so he completely ignored what the Euro shows with snow. Really lazy.
 
18z GFS continues N trend, VA gets crushed, TN gets some love on the Wed/Thur system
 
Stormlover said:
James Spann really blew it on his afternoon update. He did show the Euro showing bitter cold in 10 days, but said he didn't see any snow chances in the next 8 ,9, 10 days other than flurries, so he completely ignored what the Euro shows with snow. Really lazy.
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What does he benefit by saying more than that 8-10 days out? His collusion with Wal Mart doesn't run that deep! LOL!
 
Don't get me wrong, the cold shot w/ the first lobe on this run around day 8/9 is very impressive, the 2nd PV lobe over central Canada is much stronger (notice how low the tropopause heights are) and diving straight towards the US. We're gonna see a bunch of crazy scenarios the next several days but if it wasn't clear several days ago to many here, it should be now that we're going to turn much colder late in the month.
gfs_DTpres_namer_35.png
 
Fv3 has the exact same system as euro and gfs ... snow almost board wide I believe it’s showing... I’ll have to look at the tropical tidbits map which would load in around 6:30 or something like that to confirm.
 
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