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Pattern Jammin' January

DarkKnight said:
If your going to worry about one model run showing rain. You’re going to have a long missable winter.
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GFS has a string of lousy runs before finally flipping yesterday. Now the pendulum has swung back and so have emotions. At this point all I care about is this -EPO because that’s our ticket to paradise. The frozen kind.


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Tarheel1 said:
All the greatness that is supposed to happen , is always 15 days away, and been that way for like 3 weeks! And the 1” of sleet in December, didn’t really make it a great winter, so far
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You know 1 inch of sleet is a whole lot more then what I got. But I haven’t given up. Your not a true weather weenie if you give up so easily. That was like a stretch of 5 years and we didn’t even see a snowflake around here. But, I still didn’t give up hope.
 
Tarheel1 said:
All the greatness that is supposed to happen , is always 15 days away, and been that way for like 3 weeks! And the 1” of sleet in December, didn’t really make it a great winter, so far
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I agree with the last part. But pattern change actually seems like it is in progress now, not as quickly as we would have hoped a few weeks ago, but within the general time frame that many non-JBs expected. It’s frustrating to have missed out on the December storm. Believe me. I know. But, there’s a reason to be optimistic. At least a little.
 
Just last week folks where punting first 15 days of January at a minimum. Heck Robert was punting,Larry congratualting him on not being stuborn like JB. But its January 10th. Walk outside today if you havent been and let that breeze hit you for a few minutes. Got full sun here and well be lucky if we hit 40 today. Also webber has hit nail on the head,there is a strong signal for a big storm next weekend, 20th give or take a day. We may miss and MA get pummeled or we may luck out get nailed or western areas get a nice backside thump. All cards on table. But its everyones next shot after this weekends weak sauce exits stage right. Watch the ensembles, espeacilly eps and the low plots where it shows all 50+ members on one frame and their lp placements. Probablly see like 25+ on there 10 days out and then each cycle see if they consilidate to and grow in number to the same general location. Then 7 days out see if the global op models start picking up on it as well. Looking at 5h from 10 days away it sure looks like something big should be brewing and we should have some good atlantic blocking and nice ridge out west.
 
Tarheel1 said:
All the greatness that is supposed to happen , is always 15 days away, and been that way for like 3 weeks! And the 1” of sleet in December, didn’t really make it a great winter, so far
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It ain’t over til it’s over! DB444B80-3A40-4F39-A3F8-4941B29C2AB4.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Just last week folks where punting first 15 days of January at a minimum. Heck Robert was punting,Larry congratualting him on not being stuborn like JB. But its January 10th. Walk outside today if you havent been and let that breeze hit you for a few minutes. Got full sun here and well be lucky if we hit 40 today. Also webber has hit nail on the head,there is a strong signal for a big storm next weekend, 20th give or take a day. We may miss and MA get pummeled or we may luck out get nailed or western areas get a nice backside thump. All cards on table. But its everyones next shot after this weekends weak sauce exits stage right. Watch the ensembles, espeacilly eps and the low plots where it shows all 50+ members on one frame and their lp placements. Probablly see like 25+ on there 10 days out and then each cycle see if they consilidate to and grow in number to the same general location. Then 7 days out see if the global op models start picking up on it as well. Looking at 5h from 10 days away it sure looks like something big should be brewing and we should have some good atlantic blocking and nice ridge out west.
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Check this trend on the eps over the last 3 days 00z runs.

Definitely a good signal for this period.
6EA939B7-A149-4922-954C-F5310E971A97.gif

So this is a good start to our storm signal. To see a 50member ensemble trend that much stronger with our HP already.
 
DarkKnight said:
You know 1 inch of sleet is a whole lot more then what I got. But I haven’t given up. Your not a true weather weenie if you give up so easily. That was like a stretch of 5 years and we didn’t even see a snowflake around here. But, I still didn’t give up hope.
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Here I am praying for 1 inch of the sloppiest sleet you’ve ever seen.


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Kylo said:
Telling we have a 1040h just n of upstate NY and we we will be raining. We usually lament not having a 1040h, we get one and it doesn’t matter. What’s not to like about 33F in mid January rain.

Maybe in mid Feb when our averages are 10F warmer it will be easier to get snow.
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Well that's just the track of the low. If it rode the coast we'd snow/sleet I think. Miller Boo boo will boo boo.

But I still don't get the warm fuzzies on the GEFS/GEPS long range. Now the trough is in the central US because the western ridge is too far west. :confused: It's long range and yeah it can change, but the promised land keeps getting blurred out in time, something just keeps mucking it up. EPS 10 days still stinks. I'm probably just being impatient, but yeah. It looks to me like January is essentially shot IMO. We're probably in the game, but January looks like a hail mary....which is a shame considering the expectations this winter.
 
SnowNiner said:
Well that's just the track of the low. If it rode the coast we'd snow/sleet I think. Miller Boo boo will boo boo.

But I still don't get the warm fuzzies on the GEFS/GEPS long range. Now the trough is in the central US because the western ridge is too far west. :confused: It's long range and yeah it can change, but the promised land keeps getting blurred out in time, something just keeps mucking it up. EPS 10 days still stinks. I'm probably just being impatient, but yeah. It looks to me like January is essentially shot IMO. We're probably in the game, but January looks like a hail mary....which is a shame considering the expectations this winter.
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I'm sorry but this is compete bullcrap aside from the fact we're getting a nickel/dime storm in arguably the transition period to a cooler pattern, it's pretty obvious things are changing in the extended period with a North Pac high throwing the coldest air relative to normal into North America starting next week.

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_nhem_6.png
 
The cold is coming, people are just getting impatient because models continue to spit out cutter after cutter followed by sharp temp drops before warming up enough for another cold rain. Models are highly volatile and will continue to be past 5-6 days but the trends shown by the EPS and GEFS point to an active late January into February. I could see a period where we have legit winter threats every 4-5 days in February once this pattern locks in.
 
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