Pattern Jammin' January

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That's close to the type of look @pcbjr needs! Have to believe that this is overdone and that the reality will end up being that there is a storm or precipitation event somewhere. But like you said, analyzing D10 is essentially worthless. Cool to see, though.
Sorry, but I don't know what look I'd like ... LOL ... can you point me to the map or model (or the post itself)?
Thanks!
 
Here's the EPS meteogram for Greensboro which highlights the 26th-28th period that @1300 has been talking about. Looks to be over 30 ensemble members with some type of winter weather during that time frame.
View attachment 11770
Wow that’s really good. @packfan98 can you happen to pull that for Columbia SC for me. I’m really anxious about the Midlands.
 
Sorry, but I don't know what look I'd like ... LOL ... can you point me to the map or model (or the post itself)?
Thanks!
ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png


ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png
 
Well, 8 is the record low for Baton Rouge airport, so I wouldn't be surprised if North Florida had similar numbers. Teens are somewhat rare here. At least below 18.

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I have lived most of my life in Western GA west of Atlanta and I would say our coldest temp in an average winter was around 14.
 
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Actually had time to go over some weather modeling today, caught up on the last week and 1 /2 of runs and I will venture to say, everyone is about to start seeing some very wild solutions. Yes, Wintry solutions. I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing some "historic" type stuff showing up..

Please don't model chase though. They're going to be back and forth in the atmospheric chaos that the modeling is alluding to. I'd use the ensembles for the overall pattern recognition/temperature (PV stuff) and use the operational runs for 500mb energy and ideas at this point.

The higher resolution operational runs are going to pickup on pieces of energy the lower resolution ensembles will just plain miss out on for their forecast. There's a lot of volatility about to float around and small changes to angles, strength, and speed will greatly affect the way these systems track and develop.