Pattern Jammin' January

[whatalife]

Oh I’m calm. How am I supposed to tell that was sarcasm when the post beforehand mentioned heat and you added no context? I’m bad at mind reading, glad we agree.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just to further our conversation...Yesterday I did give credit to the GEFS and GEPS for catching the upcoming pattern change. Kudos to you and a few others in recognizing they were on to something and the EPS was lost. It’s just very hard for me to trust those other suits b/c I’ve watched them crash and burn so many times.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Kylo]

These guys have been pretty bullish on winter but shows some people scratching there heads about where we go from here.

 

[deltadog03]

Another very nice drop in the SOI.

 

[Golf7575]

Another very nice drop in the SOI.
View attachment 10033

Chris, i guess its good to have the soi dropping, but our main issue is the strong Pacific jet stream. Overly strong. We have a ways to go imo.

 

[Jon]

These guys have been pretty bullish on winter but shows some people scratching there heads about where we go from here.

I stopped reading at setting aside enso. Larry has done amazing research on MJO phase evolution I’m not so sure these guys have seen it lol

Edit: just re-read this. They’re making the same point he did but just with less data. Circle of death is actually circle of life for cold after phase 8.

 

[Golf7575]

I stopped reading at setting aside enso. Larry has done amazing research on MJO phase evolution I’m not so sure these guys have seen it lol

Jon, do you really think this unusual pattern relinquishes itsself and shifts to a better pattern this winter? Be honest lol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Chris, i guess its good to have the soi dropping, but our main issue is the strong Pacific jet stream. Overly strong. We have a ways to go imo.

If we could ease some of that ridging over Hawaii that would of go a long way in keeping that steady barrage of waves from crashing into western Canada

 

[Jon]

Jon, do you really think this unusual pattern relinquishes itsself and shifts to a better pattern this winter? Be honest lol

Yes. I still think Fab Feb is on. Late Jan pattern change to colder seems likely. Storms may take a while, but I do think we get there though. Worst case the storms miss a little north but spin up some nice cold on the backside.

I do think there’s really no better timing for this change. Analogs say Feb had the best pattern for weak and moderate ninos, and since it takes 20ish days for tangible SSW impacts, there’s no better way to head into a climo-favored month for cold and stormy than the events unfolding now.

In any event, winter returns.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

My understanding is Strong Pacific jet = no Aleutian Low = No western ridge = no eastern trough

transient cool shots at best for the next several weeks. Maybe longer

Edit: But I like what Jon is selling and he’s a whole lot more knowledgeable than I am

 

[Webberweather53]

My understanding is Strong Pacific jet = no Aleutian Low = No western ridge = no eastern trough

transient cool shots at best for the next several weeks. Maybe longer

Strong Pacific jet actually = monster Aleutian low

 

[deltadog03]

The SOI drop should help to start to pump heat northward over the pac and that should also help buckle/slow down that jet.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Strong Pacific jet actually = monster Aleutian low

Fair enough but don’t we want the low to establish itself instead of moving west and smashing into the west coast constantly? Hard to set up a ridge out west with this happening?

 

[cyclogent]

Another very nice drop in the SOI.
View attachment 10033

That teleconnects nicely to the massive shift in the MR on the EPS. Here's the last 6 days of 0z runs of the EPS centered on Wednesday 7pm. Our very best global ensemble suite is struggling past days 5-7...and people panic over day 15 SMH.

 

[Storm5]

Friends don’t let friends look at how close the 12z CMC was for next weekend


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ForsythSnow]

I present to you from hour 174 the CMC. Yes, that is mostly to all snow.

 

[accu35]

 

[Deleted member 1449]

I'm becoming a tad more intrigued by next weekend's system. The FV3 has a light event with close temps for NC; The ICON has a juicy system with marginal temps. You see the CMC above. Something to track at least.

 

[Storm5]

I'm becoming a tad more intrigued by next weekend's system. The FV3 has a light event with close temps for NC; The ICON has a juicy system with marginal temps. You see the CMC above. Something to track at least.

You could make the argument that the 12z icon was headed for a cutoff solution like the cmc had if we were to extrapolate the 12z run

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jon]

You could make the argument that the 12z icon was headed for a cutoff solution like the cmc had if we were to extrapolate the 12z run

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That ridge pump on the cmc is no joke. That’s how we’ll win out with a flow like this. Interested to see how ensembles trend here.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[deltadog03]

That teleconnects nicely to the massive shift in the MR on the EPS. Here's the last 6 days of 0z runs of the EPS centered on Wednesday 7pm. Our very best global ensemble suite is struggling past days 5-7...and people panic over day 15 SMH.View attachment 10037View attachment 10039

I actually think we have a shot of the winter mischief potential for some of the south with that system