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Pattern Jammin' January

Jon said:
Oh I’m calm. How am I supposed to tell that was sarcasm when the post beforehand mentioned heat and you added no context? I’m bad at mind reading, glad we agree.


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Just to further our conversation...Yesterday I did give credit to the GEFS and GEPS for catching the upcoming pattern change. Kudos to you and a few others in recognizing they were on to something and the EPS was lost. It’s just very hard for me to trust those other suits b/c I’ve watched them crash and burn so many times.


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These guys have been pretty bullish on winter but shows some people scratching there heads about where we go from here.

 
Kylo said:
These guys have been pretty bullish on winter but shows some people scratching there heads about where we go from here.

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I stopped reading at setting aside enso. Larry has done amazing research on MJO phase evolution I’m not so sure these guys have seen it lol

Edit: just re-read this. They’re making the same point he did but just with less data. Circle of death is actually circle of life for cold after phase 8.
 
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Jon said:
I stopped reading at setting aside enso. Larry has done amazing research on MJO phase evolution I’m not so sure these guys have seen it lol
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Jon, do you really think this unusual pattern relinquishes itsself and shifts to a better pattern this winter? Be honest lol
 
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Golf7575 said:
Chris, i guess its good to have the soi dropping, but our main issue is the strong Pacific jet stream. Overly strong. We have a ways to go imo.
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If we could ease some of that ridging over Hawaii that would of go a long way in keeping that steady barrage of waves from crashing into western Canada
 
Golf7575 said:
Jon, do you really think this unusual pattern relinquishes itsself and shifts to a better pattern this winter? Be honest lol
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Yes. I still think Fab Feb is on. Late Jan pattern change to colder seems likely. Storms may take a while, but I do think we get there though. Worst case the storms miss a little north but spin up some nice cold on the backside.

I do think there’s really no better timing for this change. Analogs say Feb had the best pattern for weak and moderate ninos, and since it takes 20ish days for tangible SSW impacts, there’s no better way to head into a climo-favored month for cold and stormy than the events unfolding now.

In any event, winter returns.


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My understanding is Strong Pacific jet = no Aleutian Low = No western ridge = no eastern trough

transient cool shots at best for the next several weeks. Maybe longer

Edit: But I like what Jon is selling and he’s a whole lot more knowledgeable than I am
 
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deltadog03 said:
Another very nice drop in the SOI.
View attachment 10033
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That teleconnects nicely to the massive shift in the MR on the EPS. Here's the last 6 days of 0z runs of the EPS centered on Wednesday 7pm. Our very best global ensemble suite is struggling past days 5-7...and people panic over day 15 SMH.ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_fh120_trend.gifecmwf-ens_T850a_us_fh120_trend (1).gif
 
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I present to you from hour 174 the CMC. Yes, that is mostly to all snow.
gem_asnow_seus_40.png
 
I'm becoming a tad more intrigued by next weekend's system. The FV3 has a light event with close temps for NC; The ICON has a juicy system with marginal temps. You see the CMC above. Something to track at least.
 
Poimen said:
I'm becoming a tad more intrigued by next weekend's system. The FV3 has a light event with close temps for NC; The ICON has a juicy system with marginal temps. You see the CMC above. Something to track at least.
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You could make the argument that the 12z icon was headed for a cutoff solution like the cmc had if we were to extrapolate the 12z run
d082a686a13aebc9eab845d6297a5502.jpg



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Storm5 said:
You could make the argument that the 12z icon was headed for a cutoff solution like the cmc had if we were to extrapolate the 12z run
d082a686a13aebc9eab845d6297a5502.jpg



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That ridge pump on the cmc is no joke. That’s how we’ll win out with a flow like this. Interested to see how ensembles trend here.
ff6c09c8a6993e3de4c7e0039efef82f.jpg



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cyclogent said:
That teleconnects nicely to the massive shift in the MR on the EPS. Here's the last 6 days of 0z runs of the EPS centered on Wednesday 7pm. Our very best global ensemble suite is struggling past days 5-7...and people panic over day 15 SMH.View attachment 10037View attachment 10039
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I actually think we have a shot of the winter mischief potential for some of the south with that system
 
I wouldn't get too excited about the 12z CMC. That run was the first run that it showed significant snow for that time frame. There needs to be other model support.
 
WxWatch said:
I wouldn't get too excited about the 12z CMC. That run was the first run that it showed significant snow for that time frame. There needs to be other model support.
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The gfs showed a minor event on the last run. Then suppressed it on this new run. The the players is on the board for something.


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WxWatch said:
I wouldn't get too excited about the 12z CMC. That run was the first run that it showed significant snow for that time frame. There needs to be other model support.
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The gfs , FV3 and icon have all show a system during that period . There is ensemble support for a system of some sort during that period

Whatalife has been all over the 13-15th period . If there is a system for someone I’m naming it Reid


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Storm5 said:
The gfs , FV3 and icon have all show a system during that period . There is ensemble support for a system of some sort during that period

Whatalife has been all over the 13-15th period . If there is a system for someone I’m naming it Reid


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Yeah decent signal in the ensembles for several days. Not a bad look at this lead.

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_33.png
 
Storm5 said:
The gfs , FV3 and icon have all show a system during that period . There is ensemble support for a system of some sort during that period

Whatalife has been all over the 13-15th period . If there is a system for someone I’m naming it Reid


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Yep. Nice storm signal and it has some ensemble support.


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1300m said:
Don't think anyone can deny models are sniffing out Phase 8 MJO. @Webberweather53 and I both were saying 1/7 to 1/20 period back in late December I believe. Starting to see what we expected to see.
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Definitely. There are threats popping up all over the mid term now that we are headed in the right direction. With the massive swing up we are having in temps, maybe they are a precursor to a winter storm. It seems to do that sometimes. It's nice to see signals and it would be great to see 2 storms in a week too.
 
Jon said:
Day 15 two meter temperature anomalies are notoriously terrible. Gotta look big picture and focus on pattern evolution that will drive colder temperatures. These won’t verify if the 500mb pattern looks the way it does.


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Dont you use logic

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