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Pattern Jammin' January

SD said:
12z CFS at 744hrs says no need.
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Wake County bifurcation. Lock it up!
 
Fv3 still has that novelty looks like next Saturday. Temps are a lock for mountains marginal outside mountains.


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FV3 continues to have energy remain together as it comes ashore S California next weekend and stay south as it moves across the South. 850s colder this run than 12z out ahead. Right now looks like it's the only model showing a possible 2nd threat day 9-10 time frame so take fwiw.fv3p_z500_vort_us_28.pngfv3p_z500_vort_us_36.pngfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.pngfv3p_T850_us_37.png
 

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StoneMtnWx said:
FV3 continues to have energy remain together as it comes ashore S California next weekend and stay south as it moves across the South. 850s colder this run than 12z out ahead. Right now looks like it's the only model showing a possible 2nd threat day 9-10 time frame so take fwiw.View attachment 10053View attachment 10055View attachment 10054View attachment 10052
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Unfortunately it got suppressed this run. Guess it’s to cold i don’t know. Hopefully it be back on future runs


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It's not to cold, there's high pressure/An slp all around it which is actually a good look at this timeframe, plus looks like a weak eb -nao may be in place at that time, also soi will probably be good(negative) at that timeframe, something to watch but I'm more interested in that first wave
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It's not to cold, there's high pressure all around it which is actually a good look at this timeframe, plus looks like a weak eb -nao may be in place at that time, also soi will probably be good(negative) at that timeframe, something to watch but I'm more interested in that first wave
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I like that first wave to and it’s 7 days out.


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I really think things will get interesting again starting next weekend. We now have some runs showing a small storm next weekend. And folks have been talking about the 15th onward for a while, and now we have a model run showing a storm on the 15th. I know it is 10 days out and the Canadian, but you have to get some fantasy snow on the models first before you get the real thing.
 
WxWatch said:
0z ICON brings a good amount of snow for AR, northern MS, TN, KY, western NC, and the mid Atlantic.
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Yea the drums are beating louder for a legit threat to chase no denying. Just because you have a storm to chase doesnt mean your back yard will score, but it beats the pants off talking , reading endlessly about LR patterns and whether we need sunscreen or the umbrella before heading out.
 
Also this different gfs look. I think it will help us on down the road with maybe another threat. We will know here in a few mins.
 
Gfs is showing rain in area that I believe would be snow. Temps support it


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I believe we will have a threat for area north of I-20. Just wish there was a little more cold air to the north. This run had a little more cold air to work with. Still 7-8 days out. Let’s reel it in guys!!!!
 
Storm5 said:
Who’s gonna kill the crow for ARCC next weekend ? Asking for a friend


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If it snows with that look, Ill try to shoot one. I can hit a deer in the heart with my 30/30 at 100 yards with iron sights. Of course there wont be anything left to cook. I cant hit anything with my .22.
 
Storm5 said:
Don’t forget the cmc has a well known cold bias . In situations like this where temps will be marginal it’s important to remember that bias
thank you storm. it's the cmc.

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Nice consistency on models for that possible event next weekend, especially for western nc, models continue to show a light snow event now, ofc it's pretty much I-85 as the r/s line which happens often
 
DarkKnight said:
I believe we will have a threat for area north of I-20. Just wish there was a little more cold air to the north. This run had a little more cold air to work with. Still 7-8 days out. Let’s reel it in guys!!!!
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CMC is better because that northern wave is able to dive in and bring cold air with it. GFS is improving but it doesn’t dive enough and is essentially a lakes low killing our cold air transport. I know y’all hate hearing this but we need her to dig!
 
Good grief there’s a lot to watch in the next 280 hours. We went from doom and gloom to this. And when/if the pattern finally does go full tilt I can’t imagine what that’s going to open up especially with the STJ throwing bowling balls at us every other day
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Good grief there’s a lot to watch in the next 280 hours. We went from doom and gloom to this. And when/if the pattern finally does go full tilt I can’t imagine what that’s going to open up especially with the STJ throwing bowling balls at us every other day
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You never know what can happen when it comes to weather.
 
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