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Pattern Jammin' January

Meteorologist1999 said:
Thanks y’all my phone wasn’t loading image.. but I imagine e17 is a lot of ICE/SLEET
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Correct
eddd2041bd26ba75332d0e65d3834852.jpg



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I guess the good news is, both GFS’s picked up on the December threat, so it’s good to have them trending better
 
whatalife said:
We need to wait just another day or so before we start the thread.


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Exactly because the cold air we have to work with here is marginal. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen just we really have to thread a needle here outside the mountains.


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packfan98 said:
What a turnaround from 4 days ago when most of us were thinking the pattern wouldn't turn favorable until the last week in January or the first of February. It's hard to believe that we are tracking an event that will happen PRIOR to Jan 15th! Looks to be heading towards a classic nino winter.
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Not to sound pompous or anything but 1300m & I have keyed in on this period from the 2nd-3rd week of January for the last several weeks and nearly a month ago even and remained stedfast when most here were worried about a blowtorch. Things have evolved generally as we expected and we both anticipate the pattern to remain favorable or become more so as we get into late January & February.

Dec 18 (me): "Mid-January certainly is starting to hold a little large-scale promise that something could appear on the horizon during that timeframe"

Dec 26 (me): "in line w/ the long-term post-2000 tendency, I'm expecting a legitimate threat for wintry weather to appear in NC once the MJO nears phase 7 sometime around mid-month"

Dec 26 (me): "I’ve got a hunch we might crank out another event the 2nd or 3rd week of January before we even hit this canonical Nino window."
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not to sound pompous or anything but 1300m & I have keyed in on this period from the 2nd-3rd week of January for the last several weeks and nearly a month ago even and remained stedfast when most here were worried about a blowtorch. Things have evolved generally as we expected and we both anticipate the pattern to remain favorable or become more so as we get into late January & February.

Dec 18 (me): "Mid-January certainly is starting to hold a little large-scale promise that something could appear on the horizon during that timeframe"

Dec 26 (me): "in line w/ the long-term post-2000 tendency, I'm expecting a legitimate threat for wintry weather to appear in NC once the MJO nears phase 7 sometime around mid-month"

Dec 26 (me): "I’ve got a hunch we might crank out another event the 2nd or 3rd week of January before we even hit this canonical Nino window."
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And I believe I Liked all of these posts.. so I feel like I was a part of this. Your welcome . ( sarcasm)


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WxSouth says it’s on like Donkey Kong!

“The MJO phases match pretty nicely the Cold November, the warmer December and early January and now--oh boy if they are correct, here comes a Wicked heart of Winter in the next few weeks with split flow, active southern nino Jet and Blocking, tall west coast ridging showing up, and now we can add Polar Vortex splitting and plenty of severe Cold in Canada that come come down easily with time late Jan and early February. Make use of the current sunny and warm weather while you can.”



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cyclogent said:
FV3 consistency...check
Old GFS suppressed...check
Growing GEFS/EPS support...check
Mentioned in the WPC day 3-7 disco...check
5 days out...(at least per the FV3 for western parts of the Southeast)...check

I vote Kylo to fire it up.
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packfan98 said:
Do it @Kylo.
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There is less than 0% chance I will ever start a storm thread. To superstitious :)
 
ATLwxfan said:
WxSouth says it’s on like Donkey Kong!

“The MJO phases match pretty nicely the Cold November, the warmer December and early January and now--oh boy if they are correct, here comes a Wicked heart of Winter in the next few weeks with split flow, active southern nino Jet and Blocking, tall west coast ridging showing up, and now we can add Polar Vortex splitting and plenty of severe Cold in Canada that come come down easily with time late Jan and early February. Make use of the current sunny and warm weather while you can.”



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Insert Paul McCartney song "Let it be, let it be" -- Let the coming cold and active pattern late January - February be
 
I remember when many here & even distinguished mets were worried about this period being blowtorch warm.
With the subtropical jet constantly undercutting said ridge over east-central Canada, it's hard to get seriously warm in the SE US for very long even when ridging is favored over east-central North America as a whole. The incessant subtropical & Pacific jet undercutting is one of the main reasons why the SE US remains at the very least mild or slightly below normal in El Nino winters even though most of the rest of the CONUS may be warm or very warm. This pattern for our upcoming storm with cP air masses coming out of central Canada congregating with frequent southern stream disturbances is the classic recipe for a winter storm in an El Nino winter. Particularly when the EPO tanks & cross-polar flow deposits Siberian air into the North American continent in concert with this active southern stream, areas along the I-20 corridor could more easily get involved, we may have to wait a little longer for this to happen.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_7.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not to sound pompous or anything but 1300m & I have keyed in on this period from the 2nd-3rd week of January for the last several weeks and nearly a month ago even and remained stedfast when most here were worried about a blowtorch. Things have evolved generally as we expected and we both anticipate the pattern to remain favorable or become more so as we get into late January & February.

Dec 18 (me): "Mid-January certainly is starting to hold a little large-scale promise that something could appear on the horizon during that timeframe"

Dec 26 (me): "in line w/ the long-term post-2000 tendency, I'm expecting a legitimate threat for wintry weather to appear in NC once the MJO nears phase 7 sometime around mid-month"

Dec 26 (me): "I’ve got a hunch we might crank out another event the 2nd or 3rd week of January before we even hit this canonical Nino window."
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I did say this, but it was on Dec 27 on Twitter.
“the next chance at snow on eastern seaboard ~Jan 5-11, however could be closer the tail end (week 2)”

A little too bullish on the range but that’s why I added the tail end caveat. High five guys.


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ATLwxfan said:
WxSouth says it’s on like Donkey Kong!

“The MJO phases match pretty nicely the Cold November, the warmer December and early January and now--oh boy if they are correct, here comes a Wicked heart of Winter in the next few weeks with split flow, active southern nino Jet and Blocking, tall west coast ridging showing up, and now we can add Polar Vortex splitting and plenty of severe Cold in Canada that come come down easily with time late Jan and early February. Make use of the current sunny and warm weather while you can.”



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Game on! Where is that, I don't see it on facebook or twitter. Didn't he do away with a paid site?
 
GaWx said:
If only there really were to be a good moist WSW flow at H5 and an accompanying GOM surface low crossing central FL in mid Jan meeting up with a very cold high wedging SW pretty far down into the SE US, I know you know as much as anyone that not just I-20 but even Macon could possibly see something significant. Since that's almost what the 0Z Euro shows along with 0Z EPS support, I'd say game could even be on all the way down to you. Of course, the central FL low track on this run may turn out to be the furthest south of any run. Nobody knows. But I wouldn't bet on that just yet due to recent trends/supporting indices.

Edit: Looking at the closeup maps. I see a 1015-16 mb sfc low move E from the central Gulf to just N of Tampa and then to Cape Canaveral, a quite far south track. The Euro does give Macon 0.75" of QPF by the way, a nice healthy amount. It gets you down to 36-37 through most of the rain!
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Yeah it’s not that far off, and I know if the high pressure can be a little bit quicker coming in and certainly a little stronger that obviously helps everybody. I won’t hold my breath, LOL but at least there’s something to look at other than 60s and 70s.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I remember when many here & even distinguished mets were worried about this period being blowtorch warm.
With the subtropical jet constantly undercutting said ridge over east-central Canada, it's hard to get seriously warm in the SE US for very long even when ridging is favored over east-central North America as a whole. The incessant subtropical & Pacific jet undercutting is one of the main reasons why the SE US remains at the very least mild or slightly below normal in El Nino winters even though most of the rest of the CONUS may be warm or very warm. This pattern for our upcoming storm with cP air masses coming out of central Canada congregating with frequent southern stream disturbances is the classic recipe for a winter storm in an El Nino winter. Particularly when the EPO tanks & cross-polar flow deposits Siberian air into the North American continent in concert with this active southern stream, areas along the I-20 corridor could more easily get involved, we may have to wait a little longer for this to happen.

View attachment 10097
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Webber, do you forsee the Pacific jet relaxing and epo going negative or "in the tank" at any point this winter? That jet is cranking
 
I think next weekend is just the start. Things really look to be jammin from the second half of January onward.
 
87 swings was crazy.

Temps the week before two big winter storms dumped on the east.


Screen Shot 2019-01-06 at 11.07.59 AM.png

Temps during the two big winter storms.

Screen Shot 2019-01-06 at 11.08.07 AM.png

Then the 2 weeks after. What a blowtorch.

Screen Shot 2019-01-06 at 11.08.18 AM.png

Then after blowtorch we get 2 more winter storms within a 10 day period.

Screen Shot 2019-01-06 at 11.08.26 AM.png
 
12z guidance more suppresed, not to worried since it will come back nw, and as long as ensembles keep the signal, still in business
 
Even if the fv3 is wrong, it's been the only really consistent for about 5 runs now, I would take it's solution
 
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