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Pattern Jammin' January

NoSnowATL said:
Man Georgia is getting no love on fantasy runs so far this year. It’s like snow just jumps the state.


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For good reason. Mountains to the north and we don’t get the full benefit of the wedge. You need a perfect recipe for snow here and it ain’t easy to bake that cake.


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I saw where we have made it to phase 8. The Euro is predicting 7-8 more days in phase 8 before entering the COD in phases 8 and 0 for several more days. Looks great! What do you think @GaWx??
 
packfan98 said:
I saw where we have made it to phase 8. The Euro is predicting 7-8 more days in phase 8 before entering the COD in phases 8 and 0 for several more days. Looks great! What do you think @GaWx??
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I love it for this weekend’s prospects for sure. From a pure MJO point of view from my perspective, there’s no place I’d rather be for the SE as a whole (not talking MBY specifically), especially during El Niño and even moreso during Jan. The consensus of either a little outside phase 8 or on/inside left part of circle during just El Niño Jans going back to 1977 that I posted about recently to supplement the all ENSO analysis of Jans 1975-2014 that I put in the blog 2 years ago said this being the coldest MJO location for the SE on average has actually been most evident during El Niño.
I’ll probably post more about the history related to this for RDU and ATL later.

Edit: Combining this with -2 AO this Thu and +0.75 PNA this weekend and you have a great combo of these three indices!

Another edit: Looking further out in time, I love where the EPS is curling the MJO within the circle! So, also looking nice for late month from pure MJO perspective.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
I'd love to see this fill in a bit in advance of our storm, absolutely abysmal snow cover in the east-central US right now
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that's not snowcover, that's 24 hour accumulation
snowcover
scover.gif
 
What will it take for us deep South folks to score in January especially with everything lined up so far with the mjo going to phase 8 and soi tanking negative or do it really matter more for the upper south east folks
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
What will it take for us deep South folks to score in January especially with everything lined up so far with the mjo going to phase 8 and soi tanking negative or do it really matter more for the upper south east folks
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Allan says it best I think. Otherwise we need great timing like this potential day 6-7 threat.

 
Ilovesnow28 said:
What will it take for us deep South folks to score in January especially with everything lined up so far with the mjo going to phase 8 and soi tanking negative or do it really matter more for the upper south east folks
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It all matters in figuring the chances for the deep south, too, but there is of course always going to be a much lower chance there on average just due to being further south. I'll do a hypothetical to illustrate. Let's say all of the major indices are lined up like 7s on a slot machine for a 5 day period starting in about a week. Whereas the longterm average chance for any wintry precip during that 5 day period may at RDU be, say, 30%, say 10% at Tusc., and say 1% at SAV, it may be with all the 7s lined up, say, 75% at RDU, 30% at Tusc, and 4% at SAV. It may increase the chance more in relation to a location's normal further south but it would likely still be much higher further north...just not as steep a gradient,
 
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Kylo said:
Allan says it best I think. Otherwise we need great timing like this potential day 6-7 threat.

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Who needs a sustained cold pattern? Seems like we get the big storm threats when we go from really warm like today to just cold enough a week later.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Who needs a sustained cold pattern? Seems like we get the big storm threats when we go from really warm like today to just cold enough a week later.
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I wouldn’t prefer to have sustained cold so we don’t go 6 weeks between chances. But to each it’s own.
 
GaWx said:
It all matters in figuring the chances for the deep south, too, but there is of course always going to be a much lower chance there on average just due to being further south. I'll do a hypothetical to illustrate. Let's say all of the major indices are lined up like 7s on a slot machine for a 5 day period starting in about a week. Whereas the longterm average chance for any wintry precip during that 5 day period may at RDU be, say, 30%, say 10% at Tusc., and say 1% at SAV, it may be with all the 7s lined up, say, 75% at RDU, 30% at Tusc, and 4% at SAV. It may increase the chance more in relation to a location's normal further south but it would likely still be much higher further north...just not as steep a gradient,
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Thanks I'm always learning something new here and I appreciate all the information being presented
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Does the south ever really get sustained cold ? Sustained cold to me would be weeks of highs in the 20s and 30s. I dont ever recall having sustained cold in GA.
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Just last year we had almost 2 weeks of highs below freezing and lows in the teens and lower. The one day that went above freezing hit 34 or 35 for an hour or so then back below. Lakes and streams were frozen solid and some could be walked on.

Edit: I just noticed you said Georgia.
 
GaWx said:
It all matters in figuring the chances for the deep south, too, but there is of course always going to be a much lower chance there on average just due to being further south. I'll do a hypothetical to illustrate. Let's say all of the major indices are lined up like 7s on a slot machine for a 5 day period starting in about a week. Whereas the longterm average chance for any wintry precip during that 5 day period may at RDU be, say, 30%, say 10% at Tusc., and say 1% at SAV, it may be with all the 7s lined up, say, 75% at RDU, 30% at Tusc, and 4% at SAV. It may increase the chance more in relation to a location's normal further south but it would likely still be much higher further north...just not as steep a gradient,
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I get a better avg when I get a Beaumont to Sav storm and everyone gets rich, than waiting on a central Ga sleet storm. Those have been far apart this century, and back in the 90's. Come to think of it I haven't had either one in well over 20 years, not a good one. I'd like to see an 8 or 9 state duzy :)
 
Brick Tamland said:
Who needs a sustained cold pattern? Seems like we get the big storm threats when we go from really warm like today to just cold enough a week later.
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I'm often reminded when I get a deep snow that I'm only getting a small part of it. I lost most of it getting cold enough to accumulate because it's been so warm. Makes me appreciate what it takes to get a foot :)
 
Good run of gfs but temps remain marginal outside mountains. Probably mid 30s


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The end of the new 0Z EPS, aw of 1/21-22, is the best I can recall for any run ending this month with regard to the western ridge. Still not nearly as tall as the GEFS ridge then but an improvement for the EPS. Is this sign of a new trend? Finally?!?
 
GaWx said:
The end of the new 0Z EPS, aw of 1/21-22, is the best I can recall for any run ending this month with regard to the western ridge. Still not nearly as tall as the GEFS ridge then but an improvement for the EPS. Is this sign of a new trend? Finally?!?
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Should be a great run of the weeklies tonight, I hope.

Just to compare how the last Thursdays weeklies, which we all thought was great, are comparing. We are actually ahead of schedule.

14-km EPS 46-DAYS Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 456 (1).png14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 360 (3).png
 
Kylo said:
Should be a great run of the weeklies tonight, I hope.

Just to compare how the last Thursdays weeklies, which we all thought was great, are comparing. We are actually ahead of schedule.

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Looking through the members, I would say the mean would look even better than that because a few skew it in the other direction. I would say ~75% have a strong western ridge. That mean does agree with the lack of an -NAO though.
 
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