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Pattern Jammin' January

Rain Cold said:
I can’t imagine there being any real concern over a 46 day snowfall map. The take-away is to be happy it thinks the pattern will support snow at all. The rest will work itself out.
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... all the whinin' ... o_O ... if there were even a thought of 1" south of most, even just a thought, they'd ban an old Curmudgeon for a posting a continuos rampage of :):):):):):p:p:p:p:p:po_Oo_O:p:p:p:p:p:p;););););):D:D:D:D:D:D;););):):):)
 
Rain Cold said:
I can’t imagine there being any real concern over a 46 day snowfall map. The take-away is to be happy it thinks the pattern will support snow at all. The rest will work itself out.
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Yep. These things essentially follow climo, and are sometimes helpful when determining a pattern change, but that’s it. I don’t take the mean seriously at all.


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deltadog03 said:
Doc has a massive ridge going up starting D7 tho.
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Wow.

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They way things look now I’d say the SE may be tracking another winter storm towards the end of the month. Especially if the Euro is right at hr. 240 (not that it’s been all that consistent ). Nice +PNA going up.
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Jon said:
Now that’s a pattern change. GFS is extremely active. I did sat the active PAC will probably help more than hurt once the change is underway...

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Yes, that looks very active. A shot at a storm this weekend and then another one next Friday. Great to see all this potential showing up now.
 
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NC got hit 3 times on the O6z run of the GFS. Salt in the wound. I always felt like this might be a NC north winter with the STJ so juiced up but damn. We are going to need some major help this year
 
ForsythSnow said:
With a 1068 over Greenland and a 1062 north of Alaska and two 1055 highs dropping into the us? Absolutely crazy and unrealistic.
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I'm glad we are continuing to see progress on all sides. First a smidgen of HLB on the ensembles, then more, then the OPs are showing decent HLB and now sometimes crazy HLB. Like I said as well, while it's crazy, you can see it start building in under ten days so now we are really getting somewhere.
 
Seems like MLK is the time we start getting good looks if the GEFS is right. Can't see the 15 on EPS, but 10 still sucks. Yeah, waiting really sucks. I feel it could be worth it though.

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The 12z GFS is meh. Not really a drastic pattern shift but more glancing shots of cooler weather along with warm ups and some rain. Canada nice and cold by late month.


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Kylo said:
Crazy run of the GEFS. Deep crazy cold day 10+. The snow mean is nuts how far south it is.
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Blocking everywhere, and yes, a nice split flow underneath the ridge while the PV visits east of Hudson Bay. I see snow in that picture. I'm starting to envision how wet it's been and switching out the rain with snow. Could that be what happens? Are the weeklies starting to come into the actual forecast? May need MLK to rest up.

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