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Pattern Jammin' January

This phases you are going to have a whopper of a OhV and interior northeast major winter storm.

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The latest EPS and GEFS have no more than about two cold days over the SE through midmonth. At one point runs early in the week had cold for most of early Jan. So, assuming models are right, we’ve lost the 1st half of Jan and can’t trust any current day 15-16 maps that hint at a colder change soon after. Heck, the models were first hinting at a colder pattern change starting ~12/23 as of 12/10 runs and look where we are now. So, we can only hope that this finally occurs 2nd half of Jan. The 0Z GEFS does have -AO as we head into mid Jan but it has had a -AO bias of about -.50.
Regardless, JB/Pioneer DJF historic SE cold chances of verifying going down which each passing day of delay in cold pattern change. Now he’s referring to the coldest change from Dec to Jan in the SE history, 1985.
 
These aren't earth shattering but are moving in the right direction.
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GaWx said:
The latest EPS and GEFS have no more than about two cold days over the SE through midmonth. At one point runs early in the week had cold for most of early Jan. So, assuming models are right, we’ve lost the 1st half of Jan and can’t trust any current day 15-16 maps that hint at a colder change soon after. Heck, the models were first hinting at a colder pattern change starting ~12/23 as of 12/10 runs and look where we are now. So, we can only hope that this finally occurs 2nd half of Jan. The 0Z GEFS does have -AO as we head into mid Jan but it has had a -AO bias of about -.50.
Regardless, JB/Pioneer DJF historic SE cold chances of verifying going down which each passing day of delay in cold pattern change. Now he’s referring to the coldest change from Dec to Jan in the SE history, 1985.
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Assuming the models are right is a big assumption Larry! They’ve been crap as of late I’m not sure they get their act together suddenly...hopefully we can salvage the 10-15 day, I’m not jumping yet....


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Ptree City's point forecast for Thur night is 33 and rain. That's close enough for me any winter. Just because the models don't show a huge winter storm for the deep south doesn't mean it can't happen. After all my years of watching winters disappoint, my criteria for getting interested are a lot less stringent than most of ya'll, lol. And old boundary, cold close by, impulses kicking out of the southwest...that's enough for me. Since most winters I don't see anything anyway, getting close is exciting. Maybe you just have to be old, and used to heart break, to take what you can get. Torch, or not, if it's 33 and rain is forecast, it's worth watching, just in case. Most of my good storms are "just in case" storms anyway. I live in the deep south where it usually won't happen no matter what any models says, or doesn't say. If it's 33 and may rain, you go outside and look, just in case, you don't look at no damn model and ----- because it's not in the 20's.
 
Kylo said:
Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.



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Not going to fall for this again. The models have been failing with a cold bias and keep revising warmer as of late. These day 15 maps have been nothing more than teases to only be revised later a la Lucy. These day 15 maps have been looking good on and off for the last 3 weeks of runs. Why believe them now? I’m going to need them to move to within day 10 to possibly start to get excited again about a true pattern change. But now we face a noncold first half of Jan vs looking cold just a few days ago.
 
The evolution of the mid week system between the big three is kinda funny with the different solutions . 12z euro
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GaWx said:
Not going to fall for this again. The models have been failing with a cold bias and keep revising warmer as of late. These day 15 maps have been nothing more than teases to only be revised later a la Lucy. These day 15 maps have been looking good on and off for the last 3 weeks of runs. Why believe them now? I’m going to need them to move to within day 10 to possibly start to get excited again about a true pattern change. But now we face a noncold first half of Jan vs looking cold just a few days ago.
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But I want to believe :). And it does have to start somewhere. If EPS starts to show it would make us feel better.

But it isn’t close :-(
 
FV3 better that run. A good cold shot around the 9th and Canada is reloaded at the end of the run. The players may not be on the field yet but we might have a stage with decent acoustics.


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dsaur said:
Ptree City's point forecast for Thur night is 33 and rain. That's close enough for me any winter. Just because the models don't show a huge winter storm for the deep south doesn't mean it can't happen. After all my years of watching winters disappoint, my criteria for getting interested are a lot less stringent than most of ya'll, lol. And old boundary, cold close by, impulses kicking out of the southwest...that's enough for me. Since most winters I don't see anything anyway, getting close is exciting. Maybe you just have to be old, and used to heart break, to take what you can get. Torch, or not, if it's 33 and rain is forecast, it's worth watching, just in case. Most of my good storms are "just in case" storms anyway. I live in the deep south where it usually won't happen no matter what any models says, or doesn't say. If it's 33 and may rain, you go outside and look, just in case, you don't look at no damn model and ----- because it's not in the 20's.
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Love this post because it echoes my thoughts and you resemble my geography. I have lived about 30 miles SW of ATL. In that time I have experienced 15 snowless winters. Some of our coldest winters (like 02-03) netted me no snow. Some of our warmest like 01-02 ( a blow torch winter if there ever was one) and last year, netted me big snows when the pattern did turn briefly cold. I know that expectations in places like NC can and probably should be different than mine, but history tells me if I am waiting for extended extreme cold and numerous storms, I will be disappointed. I choose not to set myself up for disappointment.

WRT the current weather, I will take the STJ pattern with precip. every few days and take my chances that we will get our chances at some cold and snow. I have never trusted a favorable MJO or SSW to produce winter weather. Seen too many if/then on these two factors and then see them under perform. I would love to see them align with the current el nino and produce some blockbuster cold and storms from mid Jan and beyond, but again, not holding my breath. I am also saying that even if a cold pattern does not eventually over take us, the STJ could provide several opportunities for winter weather throughout the SE.

Lastly, today is warm. The next few days will be rather mild/warm, but this is no blowtorch. I have seen a winter blowtorch and this is not and will not be a blowtorch winter.
 
Batman said:
Love this post because it echoes my thoughts and you resemble my geography. I have lived about 30 miles SW of ATL. In that time I have experienced 15 snowless winters. Some of our coldest winters (like 02-03) netted me no snow. Some of our warmest like 01-02 ( a blow torch winter if there ever was one) and last year, netted me big snows when the pattern did turn briefly cold. I know that expectations in places like NC can and probably should be different than mine, but history tells me if I am waiting for extended extreme cold and numerous storms, I will be disappointed. I choose not to set myself up for disappointment.

WRT the current weather, I will take the STJ pattern with precip. every few days and take my chances that we will get our chances at some cold and snow. I have never trusted a favorable MJO or SSW to produce winter weather. Seen too many if/then on these two factors and then see them under perform. I would love to see them align with the current el nino and produce some blockbuster cold and storms from mid Jan and beyond, but again, not holding my breath. I am also saying that even if a cold pattern does not eventually over take us, the STJ could provide several opportunities for winter weather throughout the SE.

Lastly, today is warm. The next few days will be rather mild/warm, but this is no blowtorch. I have seen a winter blowtorch and this is not and will not be a blowtorch winter.
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I think it is like that here, too. We don't get any storms when we have extended periods of really cold weather. And seems like we get our best storms when there is a lot of back and forth with the cold and warmth.
 
We don't want a lag, if you want a better pattern in January. Question is can we salvage the last 10 days of January.

 
Batman said:
Love this post because it echoes my thoughts and you resemble my geography. I have lived about 30 miles SW of ATL. In that time I have experienced 15 snowless winters. Some of our coldest winters (like 02-03) netted me no snow. Some of our warmest like 01-02 ( a blow torch winter if there ever was one) and last year, netted me big snows when the pattern did turn briefly cold. I know that expectations in places like NC can and probably should be different than mine, but history tells me if I am waiting for extended extreme cold and numerous storms, I will be disappointed. I choose not to set myself up for disappointment.

WRT the current weather, I will take the STJ pattern with precip. every few days and take my chances that we will get our chances at some cold and snow. I have never trusted a favorable MJO or SSW to produce winter weather. Seen too many if/then on these two factors and then see them under perform. I would love to see them align with the current el nino and produce some blockbuster cold and storms from mid Jan and beyond, but again, not holding my breath. I am also saying that even if a cold pattern does not eventually over take us, the STJ could provide several opportunities for winter weather throughout the SE.

Lastly, today is warm. The next few days will be rather mild/warm, but this is no blowtorch. I have seen a winter blowtorch and this is not and will not be a blowtorch winter.
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Preach brother.
 
Kylo said:
Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.



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It will not take weeks to change the pattern once the MJO moves into a favorable phase. Things will happen fast once it starts. The first thing to look for is the Aleutian low to position itself in a manner to prevent Canada from being flooded with Pacific air. Then the dominoes will fall.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
It will not take weeks to change the pattern once the MJO moves into a favorable phase. Things will happen fast once it starts. The first thing to look for is the Aleutian low to position itself in a manner to prevent Canada from being flooded with Pacific air. Then the dominoes will fall.
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We will see. You still have that post of mine queued up where I said the first half of January was toast :)

Just a reminder on how long MJO lags can take. Smart people are tweeting it could take longer this time.

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/december-deal-or-no-deal.461/post-132076
 
The eps and euro op are much further NW with the frozen precip vs the other guidance . Hard to bet against the eps
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Kylo said:
But I want to believe :). And it does have to start somewhere. If EPS starts to show it would make us feel better.

But it isn’t close :-(
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Unlike JB always does, I won't keep saying delayed but not denied. He never backs down and often fails as a result. I'm saying delayed and maybe denied, too. At a minimum, we're denied more and more peak winter days with every day the models fail.
By the way, those very cold FV3 runs are looking real bad now.
He may be a blind squirrel but Mack is looking the smartest of all of us.
And to add insult to injury, the new EPS is looking warmer than the 0Z and lousy through the end. ATL lows 40+ most days. 360 hour map sucks, too.
I'm usually quiet when things look bad, but I can't hold back any more.

. Could global warming be a part of this? The Arctic continues way warmer than normal:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
 
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