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Pattern Jammin' January

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Thank you. MLK it is.

But what's up with that stubborn vortex north of Hudson Bay? That thing just sits there the whole run and doesn't move. Wonder if it interferes with the cold delivery.
 
FV3 has been showing some serious frigid air dropping into the south the last week of Jan for a few runs now but the GFS has temps 20°F warmer for the same days. Which way will it go?
 
FV3 has been showing some serious frigid air dropping into the south the last week of Jan for a few runs now but the GFS has temps 20°F warmer for the same days. Which way will it go?

I say it will go the very cold FV3, GEFS, GEPS, and now EPS way. The GFS is warm biased in case you didn't know and is therefore on a warm island.
 
With a 1068 over Greenland and a 1062 north of Alaska and two 1055 highs dropping into the us? Absolutely crazy and unrealistic.
Seems like to me that with HPs that strong moving our way there wouldn't be a drop of moisture North of Cuba. I would think we would be facing bone dry air in the SE if that verifies. Maybe the STJ would say otherwise.
 
Thank you. MLK it is.

But what's up with that stubborn vortex north of Hudson Bay? That thing just sits there the whole run and doesn't move. Wonder if it interferes with the cold delivery.
You want that pv lobe there. In recent years that pv lobe sitting in that location with a epo ridge has acted as a pseudo -nao. If you remove that feature you open yourself up to cutting

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This system has been showing up on it's past several runs. Of course, it's too early to say that it will being winter weather, but something to watch. If it will turn out to be a winter event, perhaps it will be a "ticket" storm for area's further south that hasn't seen much in the way of snowfall (yet) this winter.
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I was texting with storm and delta earlier and told them that if we can't score in the modeled day 10-20 pattern it just isn't our year

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I agree conpletely. Should have have a steady supply of storms turning the corner in our wheelhouse with cold to boot.
 
Temperature felt like it dropped 20-30 degrees here in N Alabama/Madison County over past hour or so. Stormlover what’s your gut tell you about our area over the next 10 days. My niece is due the 20th and my brother said as soon as they found out his wife was due in January he just knew there would be a snowstorm when she went into labor. I just said I hope so ?
 
I was texting with storm and delta earlier and told them that if we can't score in the modeled day 10-20 pattern it just isn't our year

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I hope so. I am starting to think this weekend's system is fizzling out for here.
 
Just took a look at the 12z fv3. Looks like a rain changing to snow scernio for some of the southeast . Been a long time since I read the ole ncep maps.. lol.
I update you guys in a few if I see anything on tonight’s fv3 0z model run.
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January 19th could very well be the next period to pay attention too and yeah, those maps take me back to a simpler time...
 
I'm definitely keeping a watch out for a potential system for the deep South around the 18 and 19 of this month if the cold can be in place around that time we may finally have something to track
 
Still lots of spread in the EPS. Id really like to more agreement. Probably more spread in timing than pattern agreement though.
 
I'm definitely keeping a watch out for a potential system for the deep South around the 18 and 19 of this month if the cold can be in place around that time we may finally have something to track
I got my eye on that time frame myself ..... were over due here in mid south also.... west tn. East ark. N miss...
 
I know this probably should be in banter but how reliable is Joe bastardi? Because so far he keeps saying by mid January we should be seeing cold air which is why I'm keeping my eye on a potential system also around mid to late month
 
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