Iook at the advantages with a above average pattern, you can grill out, have a nice soccer/football game, nice jogging weather, still tho I gotta admit this pattern is pissing me off
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SnowNiner
Member
I tend to believe the GEFS now, more than earlier because it's now showing us getting into the colder/favorable MJO phases. Before it showing improved conditions in the warm phases, so whatever it was spitting out before was bologna. Now it makes more sense. EPS still shows the MJO making a B-line to the COD which we've discussed ain't happening so we can take what it shows and toss it IMO. The GEFS is starting to show -AO up top so that's a start. If this is the start of the turn around right at mid month, I'm fine with that. It's not great at that point, but it's the light at the end of the tunnel. That's right on time for us to get cranking late January and if it gets better from there next week we're gold I think.
However my concern is the below. That stinking loop around. Other models are showing it too. If the stall, loop around happens and we're stuck in phase 6 we're toast. I'm not sure I'm a believer in phase 7 either honestly as those analogs are based on nino, and we're not in a full nino state yet based on the +SOI. So really until we get into 8 and we get the SOI- I think we fail IMO. MJO is just driving the ship, no matter what the models say. When the MJO and the ensembles align, that's where the truth lies.
Deep down I think we get there, but we may be waiting on a Fab Feb.
Jessy89
Member
Last season in upstate sc at least. I can’t speak for others. We had a few inches in December then January was warm. Then we saw a little 1-2 inch snow in February. This year probably going to be similar
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pcbjr
Member
Larry,
What need to change are naked expectations.
Models do what they do ... they are not weather ...
Best!
Phil
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're getting a double whammy of stratospheric warming events from both the northern & southern hemispheres, (the S Hem is undergoing a final warming event). The Brewer Dobson Circulation is going to be kicked into overdrive the next several weeks.
As seen in the diagram below, sudden stratospheric warming events at the poles are associated with large-scale adiabatic sinking, the sinking essentially compresses and warms the air. Thus, air in the stratosphere over the tropics has to rise more quickly to replace it, which leads to anomalous adiabatic cooling down to the tropical tropopause that is capable of triggering convection in the tropics and having a significant impact on the MJO by altering the upper level wind shear and static stability.
The models usually have some hint. And the worry is that they keep on losing/delaying the pattern change (for 3 weeks now).
Expectations are usually high and have to be taken with a grain but they were extra high for many to start this time fueled largely by the monthly Euro DJF fcast and a few others along with the Pioneer combined with weak/mod Niño climo and enhanced by the SSW. The chances of DJF for us being cold averaged are rapidly dripping. That being said, all it takes for a memorable winter is one good winter storm and late Jan-early Mar can still give that.
Kylo
Member
Just look at how bad the EPS has been. Well all models for that.
10-15 from 5 days ago v/s today run
Are these errors made worse now because we’ve in strong phase 5 for 10 days and will end up with a two full weeks in there? Also, is the strongly +SOI related to strong phase 5?
Kylo
Member
That’s what I am thinking. It’s stunning that the SOI is as high as it is and I really don’t see a -SOI on the models now. This winter is so odd.
Round Oak Weather
Member
Do you think we get slammed in February and early March cause that’s what I’m starting to think. Which no matter what anyone says February and March produce the best winter storms in my area
dsaur
Member
Models are not the weather! Old man winter, and mother nature say "what models? We don't need no stinkin' models!!!" When I was a young winter weather enthusiast my model was the airport reporting on weather conditions at 10k feet, and a minute of happy talk entertainment weather on the tv machine, and some times I got surprised. Today we have amazing models, and sometimes we get surprised, lol Imagine that. Do not trust your gagets.....when the big rock from space comes you won't be using your gadgets. You'll be talking to spiders, watching wooly worms, and sniffin squirrel whizz, to determine the weather, or oh, yes, observation, and you'll still be surprised
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS looks fairly upbeat atm for Brent to see some snow in Dallas next week.
Per this link, the longest strong phase 5 since1975 during Nov-Mar has been only about 10 days and longest in moderate 5 12 days (Dec 94). Compare this to what’s going to end up as 14 days of strong phase 5 this month: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt
Kylo
Member
Yes I do. I think we get a 2-3 week window in Feb and a couple of chances. I think eventually MJO, strat and nino climo all come together in Feb. I think we torch March though.
pcbjr
Member
Models are not the weather! Old man winter, and mother nature say "what models? We don't need no stinkin' models!!!" When I was a young winter weather enthusiast my model was the airport reporting on weather conditions at 10k feet, and a minute of happy talk entertainment weather on the tv machine, and some times I got surprised. Today we have amazing models, and sometimes we get surprised, lol Imagine that. Do not trust your gagets.....when the big rock from space comes you won't be using your gadgets. You'll be talking to spiders, watching wooly worms, and sniffin squirrel whizz, to determine the weather, or oh, yes, observation, and you'll still be surprised
Tony,
I try cases. I look and listen; body language and inflection. From that and not the words themselves I know where things are going.
Weather is much the same; one needs a 6th sense. Models are 1 - 5. Not 6. Models are a tool, and a good one. But not the end-all.
What's going on with trees, birds, wind, sky and on and on in October and November are just as, if not far, more telling.
Spoken with truth and conviction by an old
Curmudgeon,
Phil
Lol at the differences between the gfs and euro for the late week system
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More precisely, the longest strong Nov-Mar phase 5 on record is only 8 days (1/1990) and we’re headed to 14+!
The eps is trying to progress to something better during days 10-15.
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