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Some tweets about this today too. I think people are seeing what is going on and now see that it’s going to be awhile. Gone are the thoughts of epic cold eastern winter. Dec 1994 has similar MJO progression and of course blow torched. It took a couple of weeks after leaving phase 5 before a return to cold occurred. But, phase 6 ain’t great either so could be longer this go around.
Just looking at the last 15 years, it most likely won’t take more than 14 days after leaving phase 5 to get over to 8. However, it took 3 weeks in 2013 and 2.5 weeks both in 2008 and 2003-2004.
Seems a lot of punting of January and we are sitting here in December still. I understand the wringing of hands, I really do but all most of us need is one good anomalous event to hit our yearly averages in most cases down here. Long way until I start worrying about January "busting".
I hope all of you have a blessed New Year and for tonight, Roll Tide!!!
I hope all of you have a blessed New Year and for tonight, Roll Tide!!!
Well, I am not shocked that 18z didn’t have the threat either. It works off the 12z data. Let’s just see what the 0z runs says. If it stays course then I would be worried.
Toss this to garbage, banter or ban me, but ...
It's stayed the course for 6, 7, 8 ... days now ...
...and no one but Larry (@GaWx) is more optimistic than I (and he and I both have good cause to look at every glass half full way down here) ...
Best!
Your Curmudgeon ...
I went further back and found it also took 2.5 weeks in 2001, 1999, 1985, and 1981. The alltime longest was a whopping near 4 weeks in 1995. Upon further review, I’d say patience is needed as it taking 2.5 weeks from when it leaves phase 5 to when it reaches phase 8 is very realistic based on there having been 8 cases taking at least 2.5 weeks since 1975. That would be near Jan 17 IF it were to take 2.5 weeks though each phase is better than the preceding one with phase 7 itself often being a pretty good one. Phase 7 would obviously be reached sooner.
One thing to note, however, is that none of these 8 cases was during El Niño. So, perhaps that means it should take no longer than 2 weeks. That would be near 1/14-15.
????Toss this to garbage, banter or ban me, but ...
It's stayed the course for 6, 7, 8 ... days now ...
...and no one but Larry (@GaWx) is more optimistic than I (and he and I both have good cause to look at every glass half full way down here) ...
Best!
Your Curmudgeon ...
Your funny, I had a good laugh at your post. I trend to look at things in a positive way also. Because if you think negative and say bad things it will happen. Sometime it tends to come true. My better half (wife) taught me that. But, I have always have positive outlook even in the bleakest moments of things. ?
Also people should consider moving up to Minnesota if you want to see snow every year.
Going to be a lot of disappointed people down here if they think it’s going to snow every year. ?
Sincerely,
Patrick
Kudos to Robert for being realistic about the first 10+ days of January. That’s refreshing and makes him more believable when he forecasts cold/wintry.
Also, he said he was wrong instead of saying delayed but not denied like JB does so often. That helps his credibility.
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We will see. You still have that post of mine queued up where I said the first half of January was toast
Just a reminder on how long MJO lags can take. Smart people are tweeting it could take longer this time.
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/december-deal-or-no-deal.461/post-132076
Yep, I got the quote. You said that things wouldn't turn until sometime in February. We'll see....
I’m quite disappointed in the model consensus cold teases these last three weeks and especially this week’s tease about the 1st 10 days of Jan. I even made some fairly rare negative posts due to my frustration about losing most of the first half of Jan. However, I still am holding out hope that from about 1/14 on that cold will dominate the SE US since by then the MJO will almost surely at least be in phase 7. Maybe also the SOI will finally go back to negative. As bad as it has turned for early Jan, it can turn back the other way on a dime. Also, by then, hopefully we’ll have sn entrenched -AO finally returning, which the GEFS is hinting at.
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Good luck, I will be rooting for you.
I think your response was you would bump my post when we are freezing our butts off in January.
Brrrr...
