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Pattern Jammin' January

Ilovesnow28 said:
I know this probably should be in banter but how reliable is Joe bastardi? Because so far he keeps saying by mid January we should be seeing cold air which is why I'm keeping my eye on a potential system also around mid to late month
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I think you already know the answer to your question.


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Ilovesnow28 said:
I'm definitely keeping a watch out for a potential system for the deep South around the 18 and 19 of this month if the cold can be in place around that time we may finally have something to track
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Big If. GFS is not showing a whole lot of cold. The SER looks to be back later in the month based on this run.


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GEPS day ten
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Storm5 said:
Why do people take the LR GFS OP as gospel ?And where is the southeast ridge that’s been mentioned ???
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That pattern on the GEFS looks good to me. EPS was pretty good as well. Models still trying to figure it out for sure.
 
I don't like the trend on the GEFS in the long range. It's moving the PV further north, and there's less blocking, like everywhere. Cold is muted. Hopefully that turns back around.
 

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ATLwxfan said:
I don’t want to be negative AT ALL. I’m just remarking at what the model shows for better or for worse. And it’s way way out but it’s funny how the GFS has been on an island with regards to the cold.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019010906/gfs_T2ma_us_53.png


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Agree ... not be negative. Just being realistic ... models over night took a back step overall imo... could it be different for 12z suits. Sure it can... thank a lot of patience running out for lot people ....
 
SnowNiner said:
I don't like the trend on the GEFS in the long range. It's moving the PV further north, and there's less blocking, like everywhere. Cold is muted. Hopefully that turns back around.
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The long range GEFS has a standing wave bias towards a +PNA & -EPO, I wouldn’t call this so much of a trend as it is the model is correcting for this bias and given how far this is from verification it’ll continue to change going forward and could “trend” back in the other direction when better data is ingested into the model.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The long range GEFS has a standing wave bias towards a +PNA & -EPO, I wouldn’t call this so much of a trend as it is the model is correcting for this bias and given how far this is from verification it’ll continue to change going forward and could “trend” back in the other direction when better data is ingested into the model.
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Thank you! It also muted the greenland ridge significantly so that worries me that the ridging all around faded. Just got to wait and see like you said.
 
SnowNiner said:
Thank you for the EPS update! Looks better with the ridging long range....
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Will be interesting to see which way the gefs goes over the next few days and to see if the eps holds this similar look and moves it forward. The eps has been all over the place lately which is why I’m not a 100 percent believer yet.

Seeing the GEPS with that look is encouraging as it’s the second highest scoring ensemble set.

Still lots of questions as we are all on pins an needles lol


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Not sure if we're going to get rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain with this weekend's storm. But maybe the most important thing from it is it seems to be kick-starting the pattern change and more threats will be on the way the rest of the month.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Not sure if we're going to get rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain with this weekend's storm. But maybe the most important thing from it is it seems to be kick-starting the pattern change and more threats will be on the way the rest of the month.
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That's what I'm wondering as well. Hopefully by the end of the month we get a deep cold air mass with a new threat so most of the board gets in on some action.
 
GaWx said:
Added, to this the 12Z GEFs coming in colder heading toward that period. Duckies getting ln s row nicely.
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Next shot may be around January 20 give or take. It's been showing up on the GEFS for a bit. Way out there, but may be the same issues. See if we can get the highs to press down and strengthen. No 50/50 low.

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edit: storm ninja'd me...lol.
 
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