Pattern Jammin' January

[Stormlover]

I don’t do Facebook. How bad is it?


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Well I'm going to be dead wrong on the pattern change to colder as we begin January. Its just not happening. Instead, most of North America, including us in the South, are going to start turning warmer and warmer as we go through the first couple weeks of January. Meanwhile Europe to Russia will likely turn bitter cold. The raging Pacific Jet and zonal west to east flow will keep the cold bottled way up for quite a while. We may have a couple slight cool down, esp. when there's a north wind, or lots of cloud coverage, but when it's sunny-it will be quite warm. Just no Arctic air, or anything close to that, in sight for much of the Nation for a while.
Image day 10 of ensemble pattern. Lots of Pacific storms running west to east across the nation, with mild air.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Good luck, I will be rooting for you.

I think your response was you would bump my post when we are freezing our butts off in January.

Brrrr...

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What is NOAA seeing that would lead them to go cold for the last half of January?

 

[Spurs up]

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What is NOAA seeing that would lead them to go cold for the last half of January?

they just haven't changed their forecast yet but I'm sure they will.

 

[SD]

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What is NOAA seeing that would lead them to go cold for the last half of January?

I believe the discussion pointed to the SSW.

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[Stormlover]

they just haven't changed their forecast yet but I'm sure they will.

Why? that is from the 12th on, not the next two weeks.

 

[Spurs up]

Why? that is from the 12th on, not the next two weeks.

I'm just being pessimistic. sorry.

 

[Kylo]

View attachment 9715
What is NOAA seeing that would lead them to go cold for the last half of January?

Well that map is saying there is a 55% chance of being BN and 45% chance of EQ or AN. Makes sense, I could see last part of Jan being slightly BN with seasonal temps and above normal rainfall for the SE. What did they show for precip weeks 3-4.

 

[Jon]

Anyone want e12?

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[NoSnowATL]

Anyone want e12?

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Na.... E12


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[cyclogent]

 

[CyclonicFury]

Anyone want e12?

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E12 looks like a January 2011 redux. GSP/ATL scores big while RDU gets the shaft. A lot of promise on the ensembles despite the bleak operational runs.

 

[Brent]

I start my vacation Tuesday, I'm thinking that I need to do a little chasing on my vacation if next week storm does well for NW MS. Just desperate and snow starved

Come to Dallas lmao

 

[TheBatman]

Come to Dallas lmao

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That’s a strong high pressure in Colorado. 1050 wonder if that could happen.

 

[Storm5]

Yet another H5 solution from the gfs .

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[TheBatman]

So close....

 

[TheBatman]

 

[TheBatman]

Also on this run got a better source of cold to the north.

 

[TheBatman]

There should be some interesting members on the gefs tonight.

 

[TheBatman]

Candian has same idea. Just about 75 miles to the northwest.

 

[ATLwxfan]

I believe the discussion pointed to the SSW.

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Which is peculiar because the SSW solution leading to cold in the east is just one possible outcome.


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