How often does this happen, ridge bridge over the pole and pushing into Greenland.
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Storm5
Member
We’ve gone from saying it will have an impact to now saying he has no idea . The sky might be blue it might not .
Damn form an opinion and stick with it regardless if it’s right or wrong
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Damn form an opinion and stick with it regardless if it’s right or wrong
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Storm5
Member
Does the GEPS have a cold bias as well cause it’s just as cold. Not being a smart ass , it’s a legitimate question . I ask because the cmc has a huge cold bias as you already know
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Does the GEPS have a cold bias as well cause it’s just as cold. Not being a smart ass , it’s a legitimate question . I ask because the cmc has a huge cold bias as you already know
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Good Q. The GEPS has had an even larger cold bias than the GEFS (due I assume to the underlying very cold biased op CMC).
Regardless, I and I assume most look for trends in each model more than their exact solutions.
Edit: So far as of12Z, all models have ben trending colder at least late 6-10+.
tennessee storm
Member
100 percent agree ... what I take from this. It may get cold. And again ... it may notWe’ve gone from saying it will have an impact to now saying he has no idea . The sky might be blue it might not .
Damn form an opinion and stick with it regardless if it’s right or wrong
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Euro op looks interesting
I had already liked this prior to the edit but I'll double like it after the edit.... very good point. And most probably do look for trends in that range, those that don't should, that is definitely what is the biggest take away from the 12z model suites today. Thanks Larry
whatalife
Moderator
Are you speaking of how it ended. I would agree if so.
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I suspect we will start seeing more and more runs like todays 12z run at 372. Since the members are showing a change now.
I suspect we will start seeing more and more runs like todays 12z run at 372. Since the members are showing a change now.
Kylo
Member
Who you got
ATLwxfan
Member
We’ve gone from saying it will have an impact to now saying he has no idea . The sky might be blue it might not .
Damn form an opinion and stick with it regardless if it’s right or wrong
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So annoying. If you have no idea what the impacts might be, why comment on it ad nauseam?
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GEFS mean showing a lot of snow across most of the eastern half of the country the next 10-12 days.
Storm5
Member
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olhausen
Member
I don’t think we are overdue as we are just now entering our prime climo for snow in the mid and upper south. The early cold and hype did get me a little more excited and then worried more then I normally let myself get. We have some cold now so a snow storm could pop at anytime within 5 day’s out for at least the next 5-6 weeks. A lot of times up here when we miss out on a big system we then get some snow on the other side that wasn’t initially modeled. It’s not usually much but can still get a few days of flurries and snow showers that give a dusting to inch that was not expected 3-4 days earlier. You live close to my area so I’m sure you know these types of days I’m talking about.
SnowNiner
Member
Let's keep the trends going. The cold seems to just not quite get totally in the SE fully. -3-4 for normal? Maybe it's too far out and it's spread thin in the ensembles, but it doesn't seem to be impressive cold on the GEFS, even with a cold bias. Seems like it wants to mostly stay bottled up in Canada.
Winter is finally going to show up for the rest of us. ????money in the bank....
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Indeed it does, a signal for something is there for next weekend.
Remember for snow in Deep South we don’t want it to be too cold cause that lead to major suppression if it’s too cold.
Hopefully the Midlands can finally score.
If we can’t win with that pattern, we’re not winning this winter
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Yea no kidding... Couldn’t ask for a much better pattern.
Was this the same type of pattern that delivered for us in February 2014 and 2015.
This is the kind of look North Alabama needs.
18z GFS, it still has that good look for late next week. I'd like to see a more northern stream press, but not too much.
18z GFS, it still has that good look for late next week. I'd like to see a more northern stream press, but not too much.
Not a horrible look at all if we have a few more things trend in our favor.
Attachments
Hopefully we'll have those good trends. The system is cutting (for now) but there could be a south trend, especially if the NS presses further.
Also looks like fv3 is back up now.
I just have this gut feeling that a lot of this board is going to get hit with a big snowstorm before mid February. Not a mixed bag either. Widespread 3-6” with 10-12” lollipops. Well, it’s either a gut feeling or that Long John Silvers I ate for Lunch
On tropical tidbits.
pcbjr
Member
No big freeze or anything on the southern-most horizon, but Yes, Virginia, there is still a Santa Clause ... 
Precip maps?No big freeze or anything on the southern-most horizon, but Yes, Virginia, there is still a Santa Clause ...
View attachment 10478
View attachment 10479
They are on noaa website you can download them from there.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Maybe we can get a storm like January 2011, as close to as boardwide as you can get. Wouldn't mind one like it either if it ended up a lot like it.
I’m starting to get really excited. We are starting to get consistent winter mischief in that 19-25th timeframe. I hope it will continue and that many of us in Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee, can get on board for the winter. My patience has been running thin, but we are heading into a great time of the winter for our chances!
pcbjr
Member
