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Pattern Jammin' January

Even with drier than normal for a 5 day period, you can get a major snow. 5 day normals are near 0.75” at ATL. But many of the major snows there have had liquid equivalent of only 0.30-.50” with no sig precip otherwise around the day of the storm.
 
GaWx said:
Even with drier than normal for a 5 day period, you can get a major snow. 5 day normals are near 0.75” at ATL. But many of the major snows there have had liquid equivalent of only 0.30-.50” with no sig precip otherwise around the day of the storm.
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Best snows are when cold squeezes the air dry ... ;)
 
SnowNiner said:
Oh, come on. Seriously? We get the pattern change and it gets dry? Of course...lol. ensembles still look like a split flow long range so not sure I buy that.
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Well, if we go deep in the freezer, and if the analogs are used are very cold ones, then deep cold and dry makes sense. That's why I hope it's not super cold, just 30s with lows in the teens to 20s.
 
SnowNiner said:
Oh, come on. Seriously? We get the pattern change and it gets dry? Of course...lol. ensembles still look like a split flow long range so not sure I buy that.
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Was just responding to a post, not offering any prognostication. In fact, your old Curmudgeon tends to agree with you on a split flow being very likely. Where I have issues is any sufficient cold of any duration to really amount to a hill of beans (at least deep south) ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
Was just responding to a post, not offering any prognostication. In fact, your old Curmudgeon tends to agree with you on a split flow being very likely. Where I have issues is any sufficient cold of any duration to really amount to a hill of beans (at least deep south) ... o_O
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Not bone dry, I hope.
 
GaWx said:
I’ll remind folks that the heaviest concentration of major winter storms at ATL since the 1870s during weak to moderate El Niño’s was during the 1/21-2/7 period. So, the timing on this projected cold is mighty nice from that perspective.
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You just guaranteed a board wide winter storm on February 8 LOL
 
If the coming cold pattern means the STJ dies and we have nothing to show for it but a NW flow clipper parade, I would rather it stay warm
 
cd2play said:
If the coming cold pattern means the STJ dies and we have nothing to show for it but a NW flow clipper parade, I would rather it stay warm
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That is why the location of the western ridge is important. If it forms as modeled, dry clippers wont be a big problem.
 
cd2play said:
If the coming cold pattern means the STJ dies and we have nothing to show for it but a NW flow clipper parade, I would rather it stay warm
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A colder pattern doesn't necessarily mean that the STJ will get cut off. If the northern stream presses too far south it can easily get cut off though.
 
0z CMC was close of having something good for next weekend in the southeast.
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Also from 240 and on past has potential written all over it.
Cold past 240 until the end of the run. A305703F-AD92-48AD-BA93-058AA4FA3E59.png35E8F50E-AEDC-48A8-908B-9803B4E130C8.png
 
0z GFS is big time cold thru the end of the run. Shows the NE getting heavy snows with 850s around -15 and surface temps in the teens. Man if only the south could pull off a low stress event like that lmao
 
Well looks like a classic storm hit on the fv3 on long range. I know it will change on next run. Here is 2 frames of it from noaa. I will post the the other frames as it becomes available.

Also if I am up I will post the tropical tidbit website fv3 version. Easier to read maps. 8A4D3300-571F-4E2D-A73B-D2BE881287A0.gifE7C12AD1-094A-4E43-8080-86E1A0CA193F.gif
 
Ayeee those maps bring back the memories from when I was a teen, and lazy outside of using Meteostar (which I do still use, just not as my main option). That does look like it would be a decent hit of snow before rain in north Alabama, but it is of course, still fantasy land.

The torch seems over with either way even if it doesn't get epically cold, but if the PV visits at some point it will.
 
Man. This has been a boring winter so far for the true south. I just want to see something falling at this point. It's rained for days. So much wasted potential...and every where I read was screaming a snowy winter. Bah. Hoping we at least get something to track for those of us in my neck of the woods soon.
 
20th system is now rain and a cutter! Pattern change, FTW! :(
 
As we discuss and debate what might happen next in our winter weather, let us briefly remember a discussion last week on this very thread about freezing temps in Atlanta. There was actually discussion here as to whether or not ATL would get below freezing again this winter. The models did not look good and there was lots of doom and gloom and folks walking towards a cliff. There was already talk on January 2 that the month of January was toast. One week later at 7:00 am 1/10/19 Atlanta is reporting 30 degrees. Amazing what a difference a few days can make (especially when you live and die by each batch of computer model runs). This may not end up being the best winter ever, but I will take where we are right now vs. most winters I have experienced in the SE.
 
Details remain largely unknown and the large scale pattern to is in flux but there’s definitely a signal for a significant storm of some kind even if it doesn’t produce wintry weather around Jan 19-20th or so. We still have quite a ways before even considering this a legitimate threat for snow/ice in the SE US but there’s certainly a chance it could become one if a few dominos fall into place
 
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