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Pattern Jammin' January

12z CMC brings a nice surprise. CMC is by itself, GFS and FV3 have different looks during that time.
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DarkKnight said:
Starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel?.?.?.?.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure. This is what the models were doing about 7 days ago when they were showing a cold first week of january. In time we should evolve to a look like this but im not certain we are only 12-15 days out

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Seems like the past couple of weeks when the EPS takes a step forward the next run it takes 5 steps back. But, it's got to start somewhere.

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Pretty good snow mean too.

14-km EPS Probability Precip Snow United States Snowfall 360.png
 
Below is the wxbell winter forecast: note the sub -5 over the heart of the SE. I'll be lenient and just call it -5:

Per the latest very warm forecasts for the first half of Jan of near +5 combined with Dec that will end up near +3, the period 12/1-1/13 is projected to be near +3.75. So, what would Wxbell need during 1/14-2/28 to get DJF down to -5 there? Near -13.5. Has this ever happened at, say, ATL? Let's see:

Top 8 coldest KATL 1/14-2/28 (9) since 1878-79:

1905: -9.9 (weak El Nino)
1940: -9.4 (weak El Nino)
1963: -9.4 (cold neutral)
1977: -9.2 (weak El Nino)
1978: -8.9 (weak El Nino)
1895: -8.1 (weak La Nina)
1902: -7.2 (cold neutral)
1885: -7.0 (weak El Nino)


So, the coldest on record is -9.9. If that were to occur this time, ATL and nearby areas would end up DJF only down to -3. By the way, all 8 of these had 12/1-1/13 that were -1 or colder vs the current projection of +3.75.

Conclusion: Wxbell will not get their -5. However, 4 of the 5 coldest were during weak El Nino and these were in
the ~-9 to -10 range. Getting that would get KATL down to -3. Then again, all 4 of these had -3 or colder for 12/1-1/13 vs the current projection of +3.75. So, getting -9 to -10 and thus the -3 for DJF will be very tough considering today's background state though not out of the realm of semireasonable possibilities. A more realistic hope though would probably be something like -6 to -7 for 1/14-2/28, which would get DJF down to the -1 to -2 range.

So, due to the near almost +4 for the first half of winter, I think the heart of the SE US has virtually no chance now of a -5 for DJF as it would take unprecedented cold going back nearly 150 years. However, the weak El Nino gives a good shot at a cold 1/14-2/28. But even with that, the best they could do now for DJF per recorded history is -3 with -1 to -2 being a more reasonable hope.
 

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The storm system Jan 10th bares watching. It’s not far off on gfs and the cmc shows something


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That’s a strong clipper coming down Jan 8th. See where it goes on gfs


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GaWx said:
Below is the wxbell winter forecast: note the sub -5 over the heart of the SE. I'll be lenient and just call it -5:

Per the latest very warm forecasts for the first half of Jan of near +5 combined with Dec that will end up near +3, the period 12/1-1/13 is projected to be near +3.75. So, what would Wxbell need during 1/14-2/28 to get DJF down to -5 there? Near -13.5. Has this ever happened at, say, ATL? Let's see:

Top 8 coldest KATL 1/14-2/28 (9) since 1878-79:

1905: -9.9 (weak El Nino)
1940: -9.4 (weak El Nino)
1963: -9.4 (cold neutral)
1977: -9.2 (weak El Nino)
1978: -8.9 (weak El Nino)
1895: -8.1 (weak La Nina)
1902: -7.2 (cold neutral)
1885: -7.0 (weak El Nino)


So, the coldest on record is -9.9. If that were to occur this time, ATL and nearby areas would end up DJF only down to -3. By the way, all 8 of these had 12/1-1/13 that were -1 or colder vs the current projection of +3.75.

Conclusion: Wxbell will not get their -5. However, 4 of the 5 coldest were during weak El Nino and these were in
the ~-9 to -10 range. Getting that would get KATL down to -3. Then again, all 4 of these had -3 or colder for 12/1-1/13 vs the current projection of +3.75. So, getting -9 to -10 and thus the -3 for DJF will be very tough considering today's background state though not out of the realm of semireasonable possibilities. A more realistic hope though would probably be something like -6 to -7 for 1/14-2/28, which would get DJF down to the -1 to -2 range.

So, due to the near almost +4 for the first half of winter, I think the heart of the SE US has virtually no chance now of a -5 for DJF as it would take unprecedented cold going back nearly 150 years. However, the weak El Nino gives a good shot at a cold 1/14-2/28. But even with that, the best they could do now for DJF per recorded history is -3 with -1 to -2 being a more reasonable hope.
Click to expand...
:p
Larry,
Saw it snow once on the 4th of July ...
... but that was on the Canadian border ... :D
Best,
Phil

~~~~~~~~

EDIT:

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GFS gets a 1038 to the NC/SC border at 240 then everything goes *poof* I’m intrigued...that is until everything changes in 6 hours
 
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