It looks pretty close to average to me for most areas considering its between now and Feb 25.
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Does that include ice ?? (kidding btw)
*facepalm
18Z is what's great! I can't see the future model runs lol.
Weeklies for weeks 3-5: look the same or slightly colder each week vs prior run. Weeks 3-6 all colder than normal SE with -NAO/-AO/+PNA. Though they may very well be underdoing the cold intensity, they're not extreme cold by any means at 2 meters or even at 850, which may mean just glancing blows from some of the Arctic highs and with warmups in between. Which is probably what most here would want anyway since they don't want extreme cold/dry. The best place to be for most in the SE for big snow chances often is at the bottom of Arctic highs as opposed to them plunging deep down here, which is usually means dry. But the jury is still out on that. Precip near normal all weeks in most of SE US, which is indicative of it not being a dry pattern from deep cold plunges.
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accu35
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I knew what you meant, I was picking with ya LOL
Jon
Member
There’s a lot of areas in the SE near their seasonal total in this 1.5 mo snapshot though.
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packfan98
Moderator
Exactly. If we get this pattern to verify, it will probably trend colder and colder as the models have a hard time with temps with snowpack.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
HM has delivered a message. We now await the interpretation.
HM??? Who is HM???
Storm5
Member
???????
Storm5
Member
Well, sometimes I am not good with initials. ???
He is the GOAT in the world of weather
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Nice cold shot from 222 to the end of the run. Now we just got to get one of the waves to produce is a storm.
Also looking on course with pattern change with the GEFS...
Cary_Snow95
Member
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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In that whole animation, the coldest I get is 27 degrees, and getting close to February at the end! That’s about 4-5 degrees below normal. Don’t know what everybody is excited about!?
I don’t know exactly what part of North Carolina your from. You don’t want it too cold then you have to worry about storms being suppressed. Plus if you take a look at the bigger picture you can see all that cold in Canada. It wouldn’t take much for it to come rolling on in the Southeast with the correct blocking. I am looking at the big picture in general and not mby.
That map even shows 0.1" way down here. Have we ever had two winters in a row with measurable snow? I could find only one: 1988-9 and 1989-90. However, I'm aware of several winters with two: 1851-2, 1917-8, 1976-7, and 1985-6. Also, there's a good chance there were at least two during 1799-1800.
Alright, here's the deal. The discussion threads have gotten chaotic recently with banter, off topic, one liners, wannabe jokers, etc.
Basically, the moderators don't want to be "jerks" like "other places" that we seem to be accused of lately, so I'll handle it myself.
Keep the off topic banter in here. Only warning. We want people to be able to read the pattern/storm threads and learn something versus sifting through 500 garbage posts in between.
If you hate this place so much or think it's "turning into the other place" then you're free to request an account deletion.
Basically, the moderators don't want to be "jerks" like "other places" that we seem to be accused of lately, so I'll handle it myself.
Keep the off topic banter in here. Only warning. We want people to be able to read the pattern/storm threads and learn something versus sifting through 500 garbage posts in between.
If you hate this place so much or think it's "turning into the other place" then you're free to request an account deletion.
Good news. The EPS says to ignore the King. We're all good and still on the way with the pattern change. Nighty night.
Storm5
Member
Bias or no bias , the 06z gefs is one of the coldest runs in a while starting at day 8 through the end of the run
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Ilovesnow28
Member
6z GFS has me interested in two potential system for the south
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NWMSGuy
Member
The waves out of the Southwest continue:
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Brick Tamland
Guest
The week of the 20th has been on the radar for a few days now. Really good signals for some storms coming the last two weeks of January. Not sure why some are saying the pattern isn't changing.
The upper air pattern stinks for a SE winter storm for this time frame, as depicted on the regular GFS. Take a look: There is a nice ridge along the west coast and up into Canada. But notice how the trough axis is oriented farther west. Also notice that there is no blocking. Also notice that the storm is already too far north, as it should be, based on the model's upper air depiction. This would most likely be front end slop for the far northern/western zones, maybe, followed by rain.
Now, look at the FV-3 for the same period: The ridge isn't quite as tall, but it's still very effective, along the west coast. But what do we see over Greenland? A nice big fat west-based -NAO. The PV is farther south and oriented more west-east, and the storm track is farther south. It is a classic suppressed pattern. If this shows up for real, it is time to sound the alarm, load the boat, back up the truck, go all in, etc.
Unfortunately, it's been a long time since that pattern showed up for real. But if it does, it's full steam ahead snowstorm city.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I hope the FV3 is correct and we all taste that delicious awesome sauce. Really, are we going to believe the GFS over the FV3 anymore?
SnowNiner
Member
Looks like MLK is the threshold for a nice cool/cold pattern that locks in. Everything after was a moderate cold that hangs around through the end of the run. Nice.
Agreed. Honestly, it's difficult to believe any model at that range. But if I knew that one of them was going to be right and didn't know which one it was, I'd probably pick the regular GFS, just because that's the kind of "good" pattern that we've seen continue to repeat the last several years. -EPO driven with no blocking, ending up in mostly mixed events and Miller B things.
Storm5
Member
All I need is a western ridge and a -epo . You Carolina peeps can worry about the NAO . I figure we get a 2-3week window with chances starting the week of the 20th. A -epo pattern has been money for the last decade for my area . What’s the saying , if it’s not broken don’t fix it .
That said if we happen to get a -NAO that’s great . Then maybe we can get a slow crawling Miller A . One can dream right ?
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FV3 has been better in the long range so I will go with that. We may not always get sustained -NAO blocking but with a -EPO we are money as well.
It's been a while since we had a slow moving Miller A that hammers most of the south from TX to the Carolinas. I would say we are overdue!
Yeah, you guys are far enough west that you don't need the NAO as bad. I can't recall the last time I've seen a storm in winter move through southern GA/southern SC/northern FL and then just off and up the coast. That track doesn't seem to happen anymore. Probably mostly due to lack of wintertime blocking.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Did we have a -NAO with the December storm?