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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
That sound you hear is my driver hitting golf balls
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you mean that whiffing sound? lol
 
GFS showing a glimmer of hope for TX OK and AR. Starting to look like a Fayetteville spcl
 
Wow, is the GEFS drunk? Another much improved run at 0Z! Below normal temps start in SE 1/9 now. What happened? Check out the western NA ridging building higher and higher! Even better than 18Z.
 
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GaWx said:
Wow, is the GEFS drunk? Another much improved run at 0Z! Below normal temps start in SE 1/9 now. What happened? Cehck out the western NA ridging building higher and higher! Even better than 18Z.
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Looks great! Eastern Canada is looking cold. Good signs to get it cold here too with the trough orientation. Let’s see if we can get that look to hold or improve for a couple of days...
 
GaWx said:
Wow, is the GEFS drunk? Another much improved run at 0Z! Below normal temps start in SE 1/9 now. What happened? Check out the western NA ridging building higher and higher! Even better than 18Z.
Click to expand...
I like the look post D10 and onward. Now usually I would favor the eps but not right now. I think the GEFS is doing a better job overall.
 
Interesting system for the mid Atlantic on the GFS and Euro that has seemed to pop from nowhere near Day 9.

a7451bf747c7cc4b97160c8d91917fd3.jpg


The ensemble means increased over NC on both models. Still far out enough for the modeling to have drastic changes, like the euro overnight. But the overall track looks like a MA/NE threat.

722ccd2d2af5fd6d62602c9205b664d8.gif




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Well, maybe 2019 will flip this (though nothing is suggestive) ...

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Anyways, have a great day and nice rest of the year ... :cool:
 
Last 3 Days of the SOI:
15.98
6.64
-0.42

This is a pretty fast drop. If it can stay negative for a while, it will help usher in some of the changes we want. Usually there's about a 10 day lag time. I see no reason not to have the middle of January circled for a better, more winter-like, pattern.
 
packfan98 said:
Last 3 Days of the SOI:
15.98
6.64
-0.42

This is a pretty fast drop. If it can stay negative for a while, it will help usher in some of the changes we want. Usually there's about a 10 day lag time. I see no reason not to have the middle of January circled for a better, more winter-like, pattern.
Click to expand...

The GEFS/GFS has been pretty good with the MJO forecast from past couple of weeks, much better than EPS. I hope that explains the large differences as GEFS has it slow rolling ph7 and EPS, as of yesterday, has it diving into COD. The GEFS runs were great overnight and the EPS took step backwards from it's 12z run yesterday.

operdyn_verif8D_full.gif
 
Jon said:
Interesting system for the mid Atlantic on the GFS and Euro that has seemed to pop from nowhere near Day 9.

a7451bf747c7cc4b97160c8d91917fd3.jpg


The ensemble means increased over NC on both models. Still far out enough for the modeling to have drastic changes, like the euro overnight. But the overall track looks like a MA/NE threat.

722ccd2d2af5fd6d62602c9205b664d8.gif




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Click to expand...
I'll chase that one because they normally get the big ones. Plus I'll be on vacation
 
It's no wonder EPS looks so different, has MJO heading back over towards warm phases (4-5). EPS has one member that is like the GEFS (ph7)

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
 
packfan98 said:
Last 3 Days of the SOI:
15.98
6.64
-0.42

This is a pretty fast drop. If it can stay negative for a while, it will help usher in some of the changes we want. Usually there's about a 10 day lag time. I see no reason not to have the middle of January circled for a better, more winter-like, pattern.
Click to expand...

Good point as its been the wrecking ball for the past week or so. Fingers crossed.
 
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