Pattern Jammin' January

[SnowNiner]

All I need is a western ridge and a -epo . You Carolina peeps can worry about the NAO . I figure we get a 2-3week window with chances starting the week of the 20th. A -epo pattern has been money for the last decade for my area . What’s the saying , if it’s not broken don’t fix it .


That said if we happen to get a -NAO that’s great . Then maybe we can get a slow crawling Miller A . One can dream right ?



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agreed. I think your -EPO pattern is a given honestly. I've said from day one that's probably going to be this winter's theme....persistence. What we've had in our cold patterns this year is what we've had for the last several winters, -EPO/+PNA/+ or neutral NAO.

The weeklies at week 4 have a true -NAO with not just ridging over greenland, but lower heights in SE Canada/Nova Scotia/West Atlantic. That's what I'd really like to get a hold of, but what I think is a mirage. The west coast ridging just does not want to leave. I think when we get rid of the WAR and get a true -NAO we get a real Miller A IMO.

 

[Rain Cold]

Did we have a -NAO with the December storm?

I *think* the value might have been negative, but the configuration certainly wasn't ideal.

 

[SnowNiner]

I *think* the value might have been negative, but the configuration certainly wasn't ideal.

Agreed, I thought it was neutralish negative. Bit of ridging over greenland and a 50/50 low. Not stout by any means IIRC.

 

[Storm5]

Man St. Louis gets crushed again next weekend with snow on the 12z gfs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SnowNiner]

Do you believe in unicorns? Are they actually real this time? Can't be can it?

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Man St. Louis gets crushed again next weekend with snow on the 12z gfs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

All of their snow probably won't even be melted by then lol.

 

[whatalife]

All of their snow probably won't even be melted by then lol.

Having a healthy snowpack to our north certainly can’t hurt as we move forward.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TheBatman]

Man St. Louis gets crushed again next weekend with snow on the 12z gfs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

All of their snow probably won't even be melted by then lol.

Could you imagine with the artic gates opens up with all that snow on the ground. It wouldn’t be much moderation in temps. That would pretty awesome..

 

[tennessee storm]

Could you imagine with the artic gates opens up with all that snow on the ground. It wouldn’t be much moderation in temps. That would pretty awesome..

will someone please un lock the gates then....

 

[Storm5]

12z GFS has the coldest air on the planet on our side of globe inside day ten


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Having a healthy snowpack to our north certainly can’t hurt as we move forward.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Snow for me is good for you down the road, as long as it doesnt melt

 

[TheBatman]

All of their snow probably won't even be melted by then lol.

Check that out. Just amazing for Southern Illinois and Missouri .. wow!!

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Check that out. Just amazing for Southern Illinois and Missouri .. wow!!View attachment 10686

It shows over a foot here so there must be another snow on the way between now and the 20th.

 

[GaStorm]

Do you believe in unicorns? Are they actually real this time? Can't be can it?

View attachment 10683

The split is going good. Judah mentioned the QBO reversal was one of the main reasons for this. Hoping it can produce a -NAO at some point.

 

[Storm5]

A great snow pattern for the Midwest on the 12z gfs between now and January 22nd . Gonna be feet in those areas if this run were to verify


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[tennessee storm]

A great snow pattern for the Midwest on the 12z gfs between now and January 22nd . Gonna be feet in those areas if this run were to verify


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

yep... were going to have to get a neg nao in some fashion to drive the storm track south....

 

[Storm5]

yep... were going to have to get a neg nao in some fashion to drive the storm track south....

We don’t need that , we just a western ridge to establish. There is plenty of cold air around

But since you mentioned the nao the 12z gfs goes nuts

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[tennessee storm]

We don’t need that , we just a western ridge to establish. There is plenty of cold air around

But since you mentioned the nao the 12z gfs goes nuts

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

holy jesus batman... wow

 

[RollTide18]

Look at all that energy

 

[TheBatman]

We don’t need that , we just a western ridge to establish. There is plenty of cold air around

But since you mentioned the nao the 12z gfs goes nuts

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just beautiful!!! This is what we have been waiting. And the best thing is... It’s within our grasp...

 

[Kylo]

OhV and interior NE look great for snow blitz next couple of weeks. As mentioned cold coming to NA.



For the SE we look to remain wet.

 

[RBR71]

OhV and interior NE look great for snow blitz next couple of weeks. As mentioned cold coming to NA.

View attachment 10688

For the SE we look to remain wet.

View attachment 10689

Yep and realistically we knew this had to happen first, truly the beginning of that step down process.... just think of the snowpack to our N/NW, systems like this weekends want be marginal then. Welcome winter, better late than never

 

[Rain Cold]

Yep and realistically we knew this had to happen first, truly the beginning of that step down process.... just think of the snowpack to our N/NW, systems like this weekends want be marginal then. Welcome winter, better late than never

If we don't get a quick reversion back to a crappy pattern, that snowfall should remain up there for a while. That could definitely help us down the road. Still would really like to see some semblance of true blocking down the line.

 

[Kylo]

Trough position probably a good spot for our Deep South friends in AL/GA.

 

[ATLwxfan]

yep... were going to have to get a neg nao in some fashion to drive the storm track south....

The NAO is key for our wonderful dear MA and NE friends. We like it but this time of the year, gimme a negative EPO and a trough directly down the Mississippi to the gulf and hand me my damn sled.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Trough position probably a good spot for our Deep South friends in AL/GA.

View attachment 10691

Would this also be a good position for our friends like Brent in Texas ?

 

[Rain Cold]

Would this also be a good position for our friends like Brent in Texas ?

Yep.

 

[SnowNiner]

OhV and interior NE look great for snow blitz next couple of weeks. As mentioned cold coming to NA.

View attachment 10688

For the SE we look to remain wet.

View attachment 10689

It's semantics probably but to me we're not in a true pattern change to colder than normal yet. Next week and a half we bounce to cool/warm back and forth. MLK is really the date GEFS locks in on as the true pattern change to colder than normal over the SE. You can see Canada literally open up and the cold flows in. Looks great. Not sure we want the PV in the center of Canada, need more blocking over the top to get it SE Canada.

 

[TheBatman]

Snowfall mean on gefs is increasing.

 

[Philstorm91]

Would this also be a good position for our friends like Brent in Texas ?

Those of us on or near the Gulf coast need a deeper trough. But it's really amazing to see the snowpack build to the north, if this pattern can hold long enough to deliver down here.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[Deleted member 1449]

I know this is out there in la-la land, but it matches with our LR expectations. Check out the developing -NAO and say hello to our little friend in the GOM:

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Dropping this bad boy off from the FV3 in fantasy land:



Looks like a good one, doesn't it? IF this ends up coming true, I'll end up chasing it (probably just going to Lafayette).

 

[Philstorm91]

Dropping this bad boy off from the FV3 in fantasy land:

View attachment 10693

Looks like a good one, doesn't it? IF this ends up coming true, I'll end up chasing it (probably just going to Lafayette).

If this is true, I may pay my brother in Jackson, MS a visit.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Dropping this bad boy off from the FV3 in fantasy land:

View attachment 10693

Looks like a good one, doesn't it? IF this ends up coming true, I'll end up chasing it (probably just going to Lafayette).

The ever-elusive pure Miller A!

 

[Storm5]

First time all year I’ve got tight pants from looking at the gefs day 10-13 are active as hell

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SoutheastRidge]

If this is true, I may pay my brother in Jackson, MS a visit.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Just make sure you tell him you are coming there to see him and not the snow

 

[Kylo]

It's semantics probably but to me we're not in a true pattern change to colder than normal yet. Next week and a half we bounce to cool/warm back and forth. MLK is really the date GEFS locks in on as the true pattern change to colder than normal over the SE. You can see Canada literally open up and the cold flows in. Looks great. Not sure we want the PV in the center of Canada, need more blocking over the top to get it SE Canada.

EPS isn’t as enthused with the deep cold. As you mentioned the PV west of Greenland isn’t good.

 

[ForsythSnow]

The FV3 ends with another storm coming down the line after a near boardwide storm.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Dropping this bad boy off from the FV3 in fantasy land:

View attachment 10693

Looks like a good one, doesn't it? IF this ends up coming true, I'll end up chasing it (probably just going to Lafayette).

Might not be a fantasy after all. The models are all over the 20th to the end of the month with storm chances. I think it's either going to be just bad luck or the models are completely off with the pattern coming up for there not be at least one good storm between the 20th and 31st.

 

[Storm5]

EPS isn’t as enthused with the deep cold. As you mentioned the PV west of Greenland isn’t good.

View attachment 10695View attachment 10696

For areas to the west we will gladly take that PV placement . I love the trough orientation for MBY that you posted above . It really depends on ones location when looking ahead in the LR and seeing the different looks. Certain looks would benefit some areas of the southeast while screwing others .

As nice as it looks I know it will look different on tonight’s runs. I think we will have a true idea of where we are headed by around the middle of next week say Wednesday


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk