Kylo
Member
Nice little tweet thread on MJO on why differences and what to expect coming up.
Here we go, bring it in FV3!![]()
Bingo!So we have the GEFS that is coming down off it’s unrealistic off the chart for the MJO forecast and now isn’t as bad in the longer range. And we have the eps favorable in the longer range and more realistic in short term (ie like the GEFS) moving the MJO through. Funny thing is none of the models look “right” or in tune with what phases the MJO roll through.
Phil, I've always liked communing with the birds and bees to determine the weather. One of my favorite sleet storms occurred while I was doing the birds and the bees, and, thus, I was still awake when the heavy rain turned to heavy sleet. Lots to be said for the birds and bees, even for old, old men and women, lol.Tony,
I try cases. I look and listen; body language and inflection. From that and not the words themselves I know where things are going.
Weather is much the same; one needs a 6th sense. Models are 1 - 5. Not 6. Models are a tool, and a good one. But not the end-all.
What's going on with trees, birds, wind, sky and on and on in October and November are just as, if not far, more telling.
Spoken with truth and conviction by an old
Curmudgeon,
Phil
Just slight differences.....
6z...
There is something very genuine and heartwarming about sincere sarcasm ... LOL ...
Kind of like the minimums recently that didn't bring about a global cooling...yet! The results will only be perceived well after the fact. But, since nature loves to swing the pendulum, there might be a quick bounce back. Maybe 14 plus days leads to two weeks under a white blanket for the south, lol. One thing about extremes....they breed extremes.More precisely, the longest strong Nov-Mar phase 5 on record is only 8 days (1/1990) and we’re headed to 14+!
The 12Z GEFS doesn't look good compared to earlier runs until you get out to very unreliable and cold biased day 15 or so. That's when the mirage of a very tall western ridge reappears.
I'm really interested in the 1/10 period. I think that is our first fork in the road time frame going forward.The next couple of weeks are going to suck watching the failed attempts to roll positive changes forward.
Works both ways though, I remember 2014, models keep wanting to warm things up and it didn’t until March. From mid-Jan to early March it was as cold as a period I could remember.
I'm really interested in the 1/10 period. I think that is our first fork in the road time frame going forward.
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The fv3 is much more euro/eps like in the longer range which is disappointingAgree. If we get to 1/10-15 and we are still scratching our head on when/if this pattern will turn then I may start to worry about the first part of February.
But yeah...right now it sure looks like we are so screwed.
This tweet just about says it all.
The fv3 is much more euro/eps like in the longer range which is disappointing
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