• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

Lots of reasons for optimism for the vast majority of this board. We are headed towards a favorable pattern near the climatological "peak" of winter wx for the Southeastern US.
 
Would like to see that ridge out west a little taller but you would be hard pressed to find a better end to an OP run than this right here. Phil you might want to add this to the gallery. 49CC1441-EFD5-4F22-B1FA-346E823C95EB.png
 
NOTICE THE LINE OF ZR STARTING AROUND HR 174 AND IT GOES TO THE END OF THE RUN. LOTS OF SNOW AS WELL

 
LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS AND VERY LOW TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE SE WITH THESE WINDCHILLS
Capture.PNG
 
Last edited:
I like this look on the 6z GFS

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_42.png

gfs_z500_vort_namer_42.png
 
The last times of having great luck in my mind is when ya'll all changed hour profile pics to hot girls. Maybe we should all do that again. Gettin so excited for what's coming up. Maybe not start a thread until we have multiple storms and it gets too confusing. We can only hope it GETS CONFU
SING RIGHT?? WOO HOO
 
We don’t need record breaking cold to get a good snowstorm, just seems like it! Give me some mid / upper 30s for highs, upper 10s / low 20s airmass a day or two before a storm and we will be ok! That’s only about 15-20 degrees below normal, type of cold.
 
SnowNiner said:
Somebody's going to get a huge storm with that one. At this point probably the northeast. Eps has more ridging over the top than the gefs pushing the pv down, need that to continue.
Click to expand...

And we should be cheering this one on if it’s a southern storm or NE storm because it’s this storm that throws us into the ice box for the 2-3 storms right behind it.

Storm signals are:

20th (likely another ice threat or NE monster)
22-23rd (gfs, fv3, cmc all have very suppressed storm)
25th ( another suppressed storm)
28th (fv3 end of run system)


All of these threats revolve around the 20th system bombing out and throwing arctic air down into the US.
 
It is discouraging to me not to see the NAO block that the models were hinting at yesterday. I’m not sure why it’s so impossible to actually get that feature to show up. But I think, at the very least, we can say the pattern change is getting underway. And like others have said, we should have multiple threats to track for at least part of the SE.
 
Rain Cold said:
It is discouraging to me not to see the NAO block that the models were hinting at yesterday. I’m not sure why it’s so impossible to actually get that feature to show up. But I think, at the very least, we can say the pattern change is getting underway. And like others have said, we should have multiple threats to track for at least part of the SE.
Click to expand...
Negative nao is coming ... ensembles picking up on it ...
 
Rain Cold said:
It is discouraging to me not to see the NAO block that the models were hinting at yesterday. I’m not sure why it’s so impossible to actually get that feature to show up. But I think, at the very least, we can say the pattern change is getting underway. And like others have said, we should have multiple threats to track for at least part of the SE.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I've given up on a real block until the end of January and in to February, that's when the weeklies showed it's supposed to show up. My hope is it actually does at that time. Until then, we have the cold funneling into the south east, so who knows? Hopefully somehow the flow and storm track get to our south.
 
Rain Cold said:
It is discouraging to me not to see the NAO block that the models were hinting at yesterday. I’m not sure why it’s so impossible to actually get that feature to show up. But I think, at the very least, we can say the pattern change is getting underway. And like others have said, we should have multiple threats to track for at least part of the SE.
Click to expand...
If only it were January!?
 
Rain Cold said:
It is discouraging to me not to see the NAO block that the models were hinting at yesterday. I’m not sure why it’s so impossible to actually get that feature to show up. But I think, at the very least, we can say the pattern change is getting underway. And like others have said, we should have multiple threats to track for at least part of the SE.
Click to expand...

Any winter NAO will be transient or fleeting from now until the end of time. That and a strat warm actually helping are the 2 things we know by now.

Yay for the EPO.
 
Speaking of EPO...let’s see how quickly it does go positive. In our “good” winters the models will try and rush it positive.

C2B526AE-C72E-4166-96CF-74B82D5CAB4B.png
 
Storm5 said:
At this point I could care less if we get anything sustained or not . Models always seem to rush breaking down ridges anyway

If these looks hold through the weekend I’m going all in on the 20th-25th


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I’m with you. No talk until then.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kylo said:
Keep dropping. Just a 100-200 miles SE.

View attachment 10789
Click to expand...
I briefly alluded to this yesterday, it’s wash, rinse, repeat of 2013-14 & 2014-15 with the EPS when it comes to -EPOs, the depth of the Canadian vortex is usually way underdone and too far north in the extended and medium range. Given how active the STJ is going to be the next few weeks and has been this winter, it should be evident to most by now we are trying to put together my personal favorite & classic recipe for a nice southern US overrunning event/southern slider.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I briefly alluded to this yesterday, it’s wash, rinse, repeat of 2013-14 & 2014-15 with the EPS when it comes to -EPOs, the depth of the Canadian vortex is usually way underdone and too far north in the extended and medium range. Given how active the STJ is going to be the next few weeks and has been this winter, it should be evident to most by now we are trying to put together my personal favorite & classic recipe for a nice southern US overrunning event/southern slider.
Click to expand...

Yeah, good things happen when that shifts SE.
9D8C7C8E-33EE-4ABA-9BF6-8B268B3BEC97.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top