David Lowery
Member
Great article!This article talks talks about "warm snow storms." https://www.iweathernet.com/educational/weather-myths/too-warm-for-the-snow-to-stick
Great article!This article talks talks about "warm snow storms." https://www.iweathernet.com/educational/weather-myths/too-warm-for-the-snow-to-stick
While its undeniable, has it really changed so much we can't compare decades ago to today?Not really sure why your Smh’ing.. were clearly in a warmer background state. To deny this is pure ignorance. The data and research is abundant and easily accessible..
No they are absolutely useful. The same mechanics are still there. You just gotta approach them with the knowledge that we’re in a warmer background state.While its undeniable, has it really changed so much we can't compare decades ago to today?
Be nice if esrl sites were up. Looks like 1914 and 1915 were both snowy too. Would love to see the Jan patterns in those and what they flipped too.
Its going to be 4 degrees with a wind chill of -15 where i am tonight. So yeah its very cold in much of the US right now.It's not warm everywhere in the CONUS ... in fact in some places it's quite cold ... Please don't let your back yard fog your brain ...
Well pardon me, but S!¡† ... wanna share ...? ...Its going to be 4 degrees with a wind chill of -15 where i am tonight. So yeah its very cold in much of the US right now.
I would like to see how the surface low went.I bet this was awesome !!!
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I would like to see how the surface low went.
Dang what a storm!!!!!! Wish we could get something like that again.Spann tweeted this
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Thing is, you will.Dang what a storm!!!!!! Wish we could get something like that again.
Yea it just a matter of time.Thing is, you will.
System looks too flat to funnel cold air in? Or maybe we just suck at cold. Idk. Probably the latter
Why isn’t there more cold air funneling down with a high this strong?
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I bet this was awesome !!!
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You can & should still use ancient analogs, you just have to know how to use them. Any signal you're trying to attain by using years in the past 30-40 years is more likely to be riddled with noise that has little or nothing to do w/ ENSO, than if you used all years because event-event variability is as large or larger than the basic state changes in the climate you're acknowledging by changing the analyzed subset of years. Studies by Garfinkel et al noted that a record of at least several hundred years length is required for ENSO-derived signals to be larger than internal variability! Adjusting ancient analogs to a modern climate period is one of the better ways to use them.
Climate change has altered some aspects of the circulation response to ENSO but most of its key features have resonated for hundreds-thousands of years in the Holocene & very likely will continue to do so long into the future.
Very few people or professional mets actually know what to do w/ ancient analogs, how to utilize them responsibly or understand the basic caveats associated with them, leading to instances over over and misuse like we see w/ JB et al, and on the other end of the spectrum, being overly critical of those who take advantage of them properly.
I regularly look at years in the late 19th & early-mid 20th century because while I know the climate has changed significantly since then, I also understand the modern observed record is far too short to capture most or even sizable portion of sub-interannual variability that's legitimately possible in our current climate and looking at data only after 1980 severely misrepresents extreme events that both have the biggest impact on society, yet occur w/ such finite regularity that a 30-40 year record is less likely to identify them at all.
Henceforth, not at least looking and grappling with some of the basic messages that ancient years "teach" you actually limits your capabilities as a forecaster/enthusiast, leads to an over-funneling of perceived, permissible modern weather/climate variance & will make you more apt to respond with excessive, blind fervor to extreme events when they do occur.