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Pattern Jammin' January

Models keep on throwing out a big storm right around the 20-25th I feel like by the end of next week we will be tracking a big southern snowstorm for many
 
Going to be a long couple of weeks. The potential is there, but the model runs are not going to always be great. The good thing is the storm signal is really strong from the 20th onward and we have a great shot at some winter storms coming down the pipe. The team on the field is good, now we just have to see if it can get the win.
 
Storm5 said:
No not really . There is clearly a storm signal during this period . The ensembles are all over it. This look right is really close to something much bigger .
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Even if it was an extremely light event like an inch - 1.5 . It would have impacts of a huge winter storm with the arctic plowing in behind it and staying for days


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Happened last January for MBY. Only an inch of snow fell, but the cold that followed was cold enough to impact roads for 2 to 3 days.

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Since I can’t get snow, at this point I think I would take a good 2.5” rainstorm with a flash freeze on the backside like what the American twins are showing
 
12z GEFS really doesn't have any blocking or ridging over the pole until late, thus the cold is centered in the center of the conus. When blocking over greenland shows up, the cold comes east a bit later.

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Vs.

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In honor of transparency of the surface maps being thrown around...Here is the FV3 radar look...

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My goodness, that's a 982 coastal low at hr 204. Somebody's gonna get hammered with that thing running up the east coast.
 
The way this pattern is, this is our chance in nc/sc to get a major coastal storm, something I haven’t really seen much in these past years, most of the time it verifies as rain
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The way this pattern is, this is our chance in nc/sc to get a major coastal storm, something I haven’t really seen much in these past years, most of the time it verifies as rain
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Oooooh! Coastal storms!! I always score with those!
 
Batman said:
As we discuss and debate what might happen next in our winter weather, let us briefly remember a discussion last week on this very thread about freezing temps in Atlanta. There was actually discussion here as to whether or not ATL would get below freezing again this winter. The models did not look good and there was lots of doom and gloom and folks walking towards a cliff. There was already talk on January 2 that the month of January was toast. One week later at 7:00 am 1/10/19 Atlanta is reporting 30 degrees. Amazing what a difference a few days can make (especially when you live and die by each batch of computer model runs). This may not end up being the best winter ever, but I will take where we are right now vs. most winters I have experienced in the SE.
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Yep, it's not wise to look out past 3 days and be expectant, lol. My recent fav is the cutter/now apps runner that puts snow down on Phil :) The odds there are not good :) Maybe if it's still doing that two days out, there's a chance, but with a cutter doing anything south of Atl...not much of one.
 
If things are still consistent a thread should be started on Tuesday, all weather models have shifted south with a winter storm threat next week for at least the Carolinas, and it looks like a big dog
 
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