Pattern Jammin' January

[Rain Cold]

I feel like the ENSO is too positive for winter storms, meaning the El Nino is really "cranked" up making the flow too amped to not allow any cold air to make it further south (warm PAC air) Maybe the ENSO needs to be more netrual. I haven't checked the status of the ENSO lately. Perhaps, someone else can discuss further.

Are you meaning the SOI is too negative or the SSTs are too high? Like in the eastern Pacific or more toward the central or western areas?

 

[deltadog03]

SOI is down a bit today. We need a more sustained - tho.

 

[Tarheel1]

Are you meaning the SOI is too negative or the SSTs are too high? Like in the eastern Pacific or more toward the central or western areas?

Where’s the midooki I was promised in the fall?

 

[deltadog03]

Maybe Larry or Webb can answer this, SOI has been largely positive this month, is that normal in these type nino events? I know negative SOI values usually support ninos.

 

[pcbjr]

Where’s the midooki I was promised in the fall?

Look at your avatar ... you torched the sucker ...

 

[cd2play]

Where’s the midooki I was promised in the fall?

He died on May 21, 2017. You all sold your snow weenie souls for UNC's 2017 national championship

 

[whatalife]

Maybe Larry or Webb can answer this, SOI has been largely positive this month, is that normal in these type nino events? I know negative SOI values usually support ninos.

If it is...I’m willing to bet it hasn’t been this positive very often.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Kylo]

Maybe Larry or Webb can answer this, SOI has been largely positive this month, is that normal in these type nino events? I know negative SOI values usually support ninos.

Very unusual for +SOI in month of Dec. we have had 3 consecutive months +. Granted Oct/Nov barely positive.

Last nino that gas +SOI was Dec 1969 and it was 2. We are at 9 which is Nina territory.

Probably function of spending most of Dec in Ph3-5.

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au...SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

 

[WxWatch]

Are you meaning the SOI is too negative or the SSTs are too high? Like in the eastern Pacific or more toward the central or western areas?

I'm meaning the equatorial tropical areas of the Pacific. Warmer SSTs would increase the strength of the ENSO, which would cause a amped SJT. The warm moist flow keeps flowing, not allowing cold air to extend further south. Isn't the SOI the ENSO though? since the SOI is the southern oscillation index.

 

[Jessy89]

I don’t know why but I’m still watching Jan 8th-10th closely


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GaWx]

Maybe Larry or Webb can answer this, SOI has been largely positive this month, is that normal in these type nino events? I know negative SOI values usually support ninos.

To add to what @Kylo said, the record high El Niño Dec SOI back to the 1870s is only about +4 vs the current +9! That’s out of about 48 El Niño’s!

 

[Kylo]

Pacific pressure pattern is so different between the EPS and GEFS in the 6-10. You would think one of these models is going to bend to the other soon.

 

[deltadog03]

To add to what @Kylo said, the record high El Niño Dec SOI back to the 1870s is only about +4 vs the current +9! That’s out of about 48 El Niño’s!

No wonder why models have sucked. Ty y’all.

 

[deltadog03]

Pacific pressure pattern is so different between the EPS and GEFS in the 6-10. You would think one of these models is going to bend to the other soon.

View attachment 9817View attachment 9818

I wonder why such the big difference. GEFS would be better. Looks like a big NEG SOI burst.

 

[Round Oak Weather]

No wonder why models have sucked. Ty y’all.

So do you figure that’s whats making us so warm?

 

[deltadog03]

So do you figure that’s whats making us so warm?

My guess is that’s the biggest driver yes. The MJO

 

[pcbjr]

My guess is that’s the biggest driver yes. The MJO

Bingo! X2

 

[Kylo]

Still wet in the SE in case anyone forgot.

 

[RollTide18]

The GFS is almost dead!!

 

[Snowfan]

RIP GFS.