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Pattern Jammin' January

Jessy89 said:
When’s the last run of gfs?


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FV3 GFS should become operational in late January (Jan 24)....With the government shutdown, it could take as long as March (I’ll add that’s always been the case and it’s been mentioned it should be done within the first two quarters of FY2019 ). The GFS will still be operational until that time, so unfortunately it will still be with us as we ring in the new year.


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deltadog03 said:
Maybe Larry or Webb can answer this, SOI has been largely positive this month, is that normal in these type nino events? I know negative SOI values usually support ninos.
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I question if we are even in a nino. This is Nina stuff we are seeing (soi). If we are in nino it has to be in infant stages and thus the lag in expected results, which would argue for it going longer into 2019 early 2020. I dunno, but NChailstorm on amx who watches this solar stuff like a hawk posted today we best get over to phase 7 or 8 fast cause another corona hole or something along those lines would cause the mjo to stall for atleast another 2 weeks before getting a move on again. So if it happens while in a warm phase, go ahead and punt thise 2 weeks.
 
Jon said:
FV3 GFS should become operational in late January (Jan 24)....With the government shutdown, it could take as long as March (I’ll add that’s always been the case and it’s been mentioned it should be done within the first two quarters of FY2019 ). The GFS will still be operational until that time, so unfortunately it will still be with us as we ring in the new year.
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With the govt shutdown, the GFS may stay operational til March? So, I may have to ignore it for another 3 months? That just made those who were earlier not caring about the shutdown suddenly care.
 
Storm5 said:
I bet this was awesome !!!
fc5971376de18801e94f25d1b379b121.jpg



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It was! I was a little kid and remember the snow being over my knees and drifts over my waist
 
GaWx said:
Congrats, folks, the first tall western ridge related cold mirage of 2019 has already made its appearance. Yay! See the 0Z GEFS for 1/14-16. This is exciting!!
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I just took a look at it, that ridge looks ugly. If that look holds true, the weather is going to be boring through early Jan. winter weather wise. It looks zonal starting on 1/8. Storm systems would track west to east basically. There will probably be some colder days, but no severe cold. By mid month, we *may be in a colder pattern. We'll see, I'm very cautious when it comes to the longer range.
 
WxWatch said:
I just took a look at it, that ridge looks ugly. If that look holds true, the weather is going to be boring through early Jan. winter weather wise. It looks zonal starting on 1/8. Storm systems would track west to east basically. There will probably be some colder days, but no severe cold. By mid month, we *may be in a colder pattern. We'll see, I'm very cautious when it comes to the longer range.
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Well, I would take my chances with that zonal flow. It’s better then having to fight with that southeast ridge. By looking at it it takes it out of the way.

Like you said in your post. Hopefully this will start setting thing for a colder pattern mid month and beyond.
 
deltadog03 said:
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And so as this image shows this latest GEFS has a solid -AO that starts 1/14 and stays for the rest of the run along with a solid -NAO that had become established much earlier in the run. By then the MJO should be in 7-8 and good Nino climo should just be arriving. +PNA/-NAO/-AO/MJO 7-8/weak Nino/mid Jan. Don't get excited, Larry, don't get excited. It is just a mirage. Cold bias. Don't fall for it. The mega-zonal EPS is going to deflate our dreams. It is like the movie Ground Hog Day all over again.

Edit: I do think the EPS is way overdoing the zonal flow. I think that may even be a bias of recent months. Remember when it was very slow in catching onto the colder pattern change in the fall?
 
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GaWx said:
And so as this image shows this latest GEFS has a solid -AO that starts 1/14 and stays for the rest of the run along with a solid -NAO that had become established much earlier in the run. By then the MJO should be in 7-8 and good Nino climo should just be arriving. +PNA/-NAO/-AO/MJO 7-8/weak Nino/mid Jan. Don't get excited, Larry, don't get excited. It is just a mirage. Cold bias. Don't fall for it. The mega-zonal EPS is going to deflate our dreams. It is like the movie Ground Hog Day all over again.

Edit: I do think the EPS is way overdoing the zonal flow. I think that may even be a bias of recent months. Remember when it was very slow in catching onto the colder pattern change in the fall?
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Here is what bothers me.... the eps has an even better MJO forecast by then vs GEFS but still looks like poop. I don’t buy the eps.
 
deltadog03 said:
Here is what bothers me.... the eps has an even better MJO forecast by then vs GEFS but still looks like poop. I don’t buy the eps.
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Keep in mind that a couple of days ago for a couple of days the GEFS had the MJO off the chart. And now it is well down within the chart. So, I think the MJO is still adjusting toward reality on both the GEFS and EPS though they're still far apart.

Meanwhile Doc still looks like doo doo. No surprise there.
 
GaWx said:
Keep in mind that a couple of days ago for a couple of days the GEFS had the MJO off the chart. And now it is well down within the chart. So, I think the MJO is still adjusting toward reality on both the GEFS and EPS though they're still far apart.

Meanwhile Doc still looks like doo doo. No surprise there.
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Agreed. GEFS came down from the unrealistic forecast while eps came up.
 
ATL sig/major winter storm dates during weak to moderate El Nino:

12/29, 12/31, 1/1, 1/7, 1/8, 1/22, 1/23, 1/23, 1/23, 1/26, 1/28-9, 2/4-6, 2/7-8, 2/12-15, 2/26, 3/2, 3/2, 3/14

So, even if we punt through the first half of Jan, we still have 13 of the 18 sig/major wk to mod Nino major storms that occurred after that period. Look at all of the storms 1/22-29!
 
FV3 looked fantastic starting around mid month. If that happens you can bet your ass there will be plenty of cold airDEDEF2CF-A36F-4BDD-A2E2-B5443E20AE8C.png
 
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