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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
We will never have a consistent snow storm look at this lead . If that’s what your looking you gonna be looking for a long time. I wouldn’t call it noise at this point , there is a clear signal during the 20th-25th


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I understand that there is a signal there for something. But, it could turn out to be nothing, little of something or something significant. We don't know at this point.
 
Webberweather53 said:
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WxWatch said:
I understand that there is a signal there for something. But, it could turn out to be nothing, little of something or something significant. We don't know at this point.
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Of course it could be "nothing". Then again, there certainly could be something. If you could give some sound reasoning for sounding negative when all indicators are positive, I'd like to hear them. Otherwise, in my weenie-world, you are simply trolling.
 
WxWatch said:
Yeah, there's been consistency of "noise," but no consistency of a snow storm that is "set and stone." A colder pattern is looking more and more likely, but I'm not willing to get my hopes up over these mid to long range snow maps.
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Someone please tell me when a snowstorm is EVER set in stone in the SE until the snow is falling. No, nothing is set in stone, but we are looking at possibly the best winter pattern we have seen in at least 5 years beginning in about one week. I am stoked!
 
Not really weather related but the lunar eclipse will happen on January 20th-January 21st. If we get rain or etc., I wonder if it will happen during this event thus blocking the view. I would love to see some winter precip but would also like to see the moon. I would love to see both happen in January.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Of course it could be "nothing". Then again, there certainly could be something. If you could give some sound reasoning for sounding negative when all indicators are positive, I'd like to hear them. Otherwise, in my weenie-world, you are simply trolling.
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I'm not trolling; I'm not being negative. I'm telling the reality, speaking of reality - models aren't reality. Of course, there is positive signals for something and the signal is there for a colder pattern. Like I said earlier, I am absolutely not letting myself get caught into those mid to long range snow maps. That's one of the biggest mistakes. The snow maps are nice to look at, and if someone wants to fall into those snow maps, let them be. I'm not attempting to stop nobody from doing so, or attempting to stop the snow maps from being posted.
 
WxWatch said:
I'm not trolling; I'm not being negative. I'm telling the reality, speaking of reality - models aren't reality. Of course, there is positive signals for something and the signal is there for a colder pattern. Like I said earlier, I am absolutely not letting myself get caught into those mid to long range snow maps. That's one of the biggest mistakes. The snow maps are nice to look at, and if someone wants to fall into those snow maps, let them be. I'm not attempting to stop nobody from doing so, or attempting to stop the snow maps from being posted.
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You are absolutely right. At these ranges we are looking at the synoptic setup rather than who gets what. They are fun to look at but definitely not worth getting attached too.

The 20th has a very strong storm signal across pretty much every model. Very promising timeframe for the East coast. Maybe not the Deep South but the 20th will likely dump on someone.

Then we look forward to better chances for the south a few days after!
 
Cindy131 said:
Not really weather related but the lunar eclipse will happen on January 20th-January 21st. If we get rain or etc., I wonder if it will happen during this event thus blocking the view. I would love to see some winter precip but would also like to see the moon. I would love to see both happen in January.
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I think that timing will be everything. And you only need the skies to be clear around midnight on that night, in order to view the eclipse. I also hope to view it.
 
WxWatch said:
I'm not trolling; I'm not being negative. I'm telling the reality, speaking of reality - models aren't reality. Of course, there is positive signals for something and the signal is there for a colder pattern. Like I said earlier, I am absolutely not letting myself get caught into those mid to long range snow maps. That's one of the biggest mistakes. The snow maps are nice to look at, and if someone wants to fall into those snow maps, let them be. I'm not attempting to stop nobody from doing so, or attempting to stop the snow maps from being posted.
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I gotcha even though you are stating the obvious when it comes to the clown maps. Fun to follow but nothing concrete for sure. You would have to agree though, some very solid signals in the medium range from indicies to some model agreement. Not to mention, climo-favored period for the south to see winter weather.

It's all good and best of luck scoring some winter weather soon.
 
Friendly reminder re: Posting

The GFS and friends will be rolling shortly. There’s a lot of excitement about the upcoming pattern change and coincident winter storm chances. And rightly so. After enduring the lengthy stretch of boredom that we’re hopefully coming out of, the renewed enthusiasm for what may lie ahead tends to lend itself to a little extra, and often off-topic, commentary in the pattern and storm threads.

Let’s try to remember that we have a very active and well-read Banter thread, where banter, one-liners, funny gifs, and sidebar conversations are welcomed and encouraged. Please try to keep this thread honed in on pattern analysis and discussion general storm threats.

Things like: “The GFS is stupid”, “That looks cold”, “This run gives me two inches of rain”, “This two inches of rain gives me the runs”, “I like snow”, and “Yippee Ki Yay, Mr. Falcon” are best posted in the Banter thread. Comments similar to the above will likely get moved over to Banter over the coming days. Please don’t take offense, as none is intended.

Now that things seem to be picking up, this will help us keep this thread uncluttered and easily read. Hopefully, we will all get to have some winter fun very shortly.

Please PM me, other mods, or the staff if you have any questions or if we can be of help in any way. Thanks very much for your help with this, and have a great rest of the weekend.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Low gets going way to late for the first storm on the 20th
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The icon was headed for glory . But it’s the icon
c0a068278cacbf2cc12372a0b0e5e3f0.jpg



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The wave for the timeperiod most are watching looks stronger this run comparing to the 18z, let's see where that leads downstream.
 
Need a better press from the northern stream. Good thing this is day 9-10 and will change 1000 times


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Seems like the energy got it's act together too quickly and we're kicking the can down the road on the cold snap on this run.

Does have snow on the backside in Alabama.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Seems like the energy got it's act together too quickly and we're kicking the can down the road on the cold snap on this run.

Does have snow on the backside in Alabama.
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I remember the December storm had a ton of backside snow a week out. Never came to fruition.


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