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Pattern Jammin' January

Webberweather53 said:
That's fine, but I'm just trying to clear the air because there are many posters here (including myself) that probably took it the wrong way & thought you were clearly suggesting we wouldn't see the MJO even make it to the cold phases, which isn't going to happen. The pattern is definitely going to change a lot between now and mid-late January, how much to our benefit it is remains to be seen but it looks significantly less unfavorable to cold/snow.
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I have a couple of questions: I believe, IIRC the EPS had some members heading to the COD w/o getting to ph. 8, is that an absolute impossibility because well scientifically it's just impossible to bypass a region or are you suggesting it's not possible because of other factors that will no doubt push it to the cold phases?

2nd: Is the MJO always the main catalyst or is it just right now and if so what factors lead to it driving the pattern?

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Rain Cold said:
That wasn’t at all what I was suggesting. I know it WILL. That’s why I said I guess we will find out eventually (and here’s the point/question I was driving at)...eventually, when it DOES make it into the cold phase, is there a possibility that it does not force the kind of pattern that people are expecting? I’m not pointing at any particular post or poster, but by and large, I would guess 99% of the posts on the subject expect that it will force a favorable pattern when it makes it to 7 and on. I was merely wondering if something else might be driving the pattern that might override the positive effects of a favorable mjo, because I haven’t really seen that thrown out as a possibility. But I might have missed it. I was just curious.

I didn’t mean to be ridiculous and suggest that it will never get there by using the word IF above. It was just a standard phrase in a conversational string of typing.
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Well it's obviously working as expected currently and since it appears to be one of the drivers that should carry forward.
 
Kylo said:
Great agreement between GEFS/EPS in the 6-10. But by day 12 they really start to diverge. Posted in the banter thread about how much the GEFS has been struggling in the day 10+ wanting to rush the blocking.


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My money is on the American suite. It has been spelled out several times in the last week, the Euro doesn't have a good handle on the MJO in the warm phases. The Euro will come around once things settle down and the new pattern gets established. The SOI going negative was the first indicator of cold times ahead.
 
Rain Cold said:
We’ve spent a lot of time reading about and discussing the mjo lately. And there have been a lot of posts both lamenting the fact that it has spent so much time in the warm phases and imploring it to get into the cold phases. Nowhere does anyone seem to be suggesting that even if it makes it into the cold phases, our pattern may not improve. I assume that is legitimately possible, but I don’t see that outcome being given any weight. Maybe I’m wrong, though. I guess we will find out eventually.
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We don’t know how long it will stay in favorable phases. 2005 was similar in it slow rolled phases 4-6 for 3 weeks, hit low amp 7-8 and dove into cod.

42239F4B-92E4-437D-A99A-9AEE79166744.gif1B9B8F4C-02C3-49F4-9B55-47734591664B.gif
 
I know higher heights over AK is a symptom but we need that to happen sooner than later and we need it to hold. 06z GEFS showing this start to happen just outside of 240. I don’t believe it just yet though
 
metwannabe said:
I have a couple of questions: I believe, IIRC the EPS had some members heading to the COD w/o getting to ph. 8, is that an absolute impossibility because well scientifically it's just impossible to bypass a region or are you suggesting it's not possible because of other factors that will no doubt push it to the cold phases?

2nd: Is the MJO always the main catalyst or is it just right now and if so what factors lead to it driving the pattern?

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Not an absolute impossibility if we had cold polar stratospheres, thus a weak BDC, a lot of interference from ENSO and/or mid-latitude wave train that propagates into the tropics, peturbing the MJO's upper level winds enough to significantly stunt the event, I don't see any of these mechanisms occurring here, in fact we have a warm northern & southern hemisphere polar stratosphere, +ENSO (which favors MJO progression deeper into the tropical Pacific (phase 7-8) & the mid-latitudes are also playing ball, so it's at the very least highly unlikely.

The EPS has a wet bias in the Maritime Continent that's related to the convective and topographic parameterizations in the model that cause it to hold convection too long over Indonesia, the model's MJO forecasts have proven to be unreliable as a result after a couple days the past week or so when the MJO was initialized over the Maritime Continent (phase 4-5).

There are multiple catalysts to the pattern and it's often not the main one but here it definitely is. I discussed one of those triggers to the MJO being the seasonally-driven final warming event of the Antarctic polar vortex, but we're also in a portion of the Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) cycle where positive westerly momentum naturally wants to build in the tropics. The MJO was already ongoing and somewhat strong in early December and received a massive boost from the final warming of the Antarctic vortex and is continually being reinforced by the sudden stratospheric warming event in the northern hemisphere too. It's one of the primary drivers of the large-scale pattern & the mid-high latitudes are amplifying the forcing from the MJO, it's a two-way street and hard to ascertain what's the chicken or the egg here. The reality is the entirety of said chicken or egg is rapidly evolving and will look considerably different in mid-late January than it does now.
 
1300m said:
Well it's obviously working as expected currently and since it appears to be one of the drivers that should carry forward.
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It seems like it. I’m assuming that a lower amplitude wave would be more susceptible to being offset by other factors than a higher amped one (tell me if that is wrong). That said, I’m still a little murky on why we don’t just mainly look at the mjo phase/prog in winter (when it’s strong) and minimize other variables, since it seems to be the main driver. Or is it only the main driver during certain atmospheric states? I don’t know if I’m being clear. I guess what I’m asking is that in order to use it properly as a tool, you can’t just look at it only at the expense of other things. But the general posting public, myself included, tend to do that (e.g. hoping for it to go into phase 8, so that it gets cold) and maybe not considering other conditions that may be present to offset it.

It certainly seems to be a significant driver right now, and I guess that should continue, especially if it remains strong. But I’m only acknowledging that because people smarter than me say so — not because I have deduced it to be so. I don’t know enough about what else might pop up to counter it. But if, I mean when, we get to the cold phases, if the pattern doesn’t respond, I’m going to be scratching my head and will probably ask the question again.

Anyway, thanks to you and Webber and the others who post about it and help us better understand it.
 
From Judah Cohen, notice the + polar cap height anomalies over the arctic developing by the 2nd week of January & intensifying thereafter. This feature has been getting stronger in successive GEFS runs due to a bias in the model that fails to propagate SSWEs down into the troposphere.

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Notice how the troposphere responds about 2-3 weeks after the sudden stratospheric warming event begins near the stratopause, this is precisely the lag I talked about a while back on here with the following graphics.

SSW Split AO Lag World Climate Service.jpg

SSW Displacement AO:NAO lag World Climate Service.jpg
 
For you Rain Cold !! Unleash the daughters !!!
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Webberweather53 said:
From Judah Cohen, notice the + polar cap height anomalies over the arctic developing by the 2nd week of January & intensifying thereafter. This feature has been getting stronger in successive GEFS runs due to a bias in the model that fails to propagate SSWEs down into the troposphere.

View attachment 9851


Notice how the troposphere responds about 2-3 weeks after the sudden stratospheric warming event begins near the stratopause, this is precisely the lag I talked about a while back on here with the following graphics.

View attachment 9852

View attachment 9853
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Thanks! According to that, if we do end up getting a true split and not just a displacement, and it does propagate down, we should see a significant response in the ao and nao in 10 days. That seems to be exactly what the Gefs is doing and seems reasonable with the mjo phase it'll be in.

Having the normally reliable eps show an absolute trainwreck though in the long term is just disheartening. Really hope the Gefs has the mjo and strat propagation more right.
 
SnowNiner said:
Thanks! According to that, if we do end up getting a true split and not just a displacement, and it does propagate down, we should see a significant response in the ao and nao in 10 days. That seems to be exactly what the Gefs is doing and seems reasonable with the mjo phase it'll be in.

Having the normally reliable eps show an absolute trainwreck though in the long term is just disheartening. Really hope the Gefs has the mjo and strat propagation more right.
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As Webb has pointed out several times I actually think the GEFS and the EPO are wrong in how they're handling the MJO (not moving into 8) so really they both shouldnt be weighted too heavily in a long range outlook. Beyond 1/15 things are really uncertain but I think we are headed towards a much better situation.
 
1300m said:
As Webb has pointed out several times I actually think the GEFS and the EPO are wrong in how they're handling the MJO (not moving into 8) so really they both shouldnt be weighted too heavily in a long range outlook. Beyond 1/15 things are really uncertain but I think we are headed towards a much better situation.
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I like the 6 variable plot from the GFS and it moves into phase 8
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1300m said:
As Webb has pointed out several times I actually think the GEFS and the EPO are wrong in how they're handling the MJO (not moving into 8) so really they both shouldnt be weighted too heavily in a long range outlook. Beyond 1/15 things are really uncertain but I think we are headed towards a much better situation.
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We ain't getting a better situation if the eps is right, not for a much longer time imo. I don't trust either for specifics, but I'm hoping the gefs has a better handle than the eps.
 
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