Pattern Jammin' January

[Webberweather53]

I know this run didn't make it, but WOW look at that ridge going up....
View attachment 10878

Poleward anticyclones from the North Atlantic only make the NAO more positive in the long run and rarely make the nao negative for more than a few days, the lifetime of about one wave break. Need a big block to form over Scandinavia and come west to get the big -NAO everyone wants

 

[Stormlover]

woo hoo

 

[Kylo]

Poleward anticyclones from the North Atlantic only make the NAO more positive in the long run and rarely make the nao negative for more than a few days, the lifetime of about one wave break. Need a big block to form over Scandinavia and come west to get the big -NAO everyone wants

With how active the pattern seems to want to be that will be tough? Though, end of ens runs shows trough breaking down over B/K sea and Scandi. Maybe in Feb.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Far from decided. Several opportunities coming. Can’t ask for a better set of ingredients at this point.


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[PEA_RIDGE]

I GET THE SHOTS THIS 00Z RUN ON THE GFS

 

[Arcc]

Gotta love these looks. Just need the s/w's to split with one settling down the ridge into the SW.

 

[deltadog03]

Poleward anticyclones from the North Atlantic only make the NAO more positive in the long run and rarely make the nao negative for more than a few days, the lifetime of about one wave break. Need a big block to form over Scandinavia and come west to get the big -NAO everyone wants

I agree on that, but sorry was talking about pac ridge

 

[TheBatman]

GEFS mean is still looking ok. Out to 270 right now. I will post when it’s finished.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

FV3 looks like a swing and a miss on 1/23. The wave went from being pretty amped to the northern stream shearing out the wave (and epic cold I believe). Good news I think, with it being this early.

 

[TheBatman]

FV3 looks like a swing and a miss on 1/23. The wave went from being pretty amped to the northern stream shearing out the wave (and epic cold I believe). Good news I think, with it being this early.

Also has a better look then the gfs on this run so far. A lot cold air to the north also.

 

[TheBatman]

Still a nice signal on 0Z GEFS mean.

 

[Flo]

Lmao at the snow wall around CAE

 

[Snowflowxxl]

FV3 Delivers on the 27th! 14 Days to go!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That storm on the end of the FV looks exactly like the storm that produced a good snow last year around this time in nc

 

[BufordWX]

Fv3 dropping the North Pole down at 348 Lol

 

[TheBatman]

Fv3 dropping the North Pole down at 348 LolView attachment 10889

That’s getting to be record cold for everyone.

 

[tennessee storm]

Fv3 dropping the North Pole down at 348 LolView attachment 10889

Historic. Cold shot there ...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Just remember, y’all asked for this. That color purple hurts my eyes to look at

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

That’s getting to be record cold for everyone.

AND MANY MANY CARS WILL BE DISABLED, AND MANY A WATER LINE WILL BURST

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Fv3 dropping the North Pole down at 348 LolView attachment 10889

This is DANGEROUS COLD, pipe bursting, very bad.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Literally a downburst of cold air in the us on the fv3 lol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s amazing what can happen when you get a little -AO showing up on the models. Still doesn’t seem to get me snow but those purple maps sure are pretty. I’m pretty sure you could get snow on a gulf oil rig with anomolies like that

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

HOW DO YOU HAVE -0°
LOOK AT CENTRAL ALABAMA

 

[Snowflowxxl]

-40s in Minnesota. Thats unreal.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

-0 becuase it’s probably -0.1 - -0.4 which is rounded to -0

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Look at that north to south US gradient. 80 in south Texas..-31 in Minneapolis..you don’t even have to drive border to border to find 110 degrees of temperature difference,.just imagine if you were a trucker taking a delivery of Modelo to Minnesota

 

[CyclonicFury]

That is one of the coldest model runs I have ever seen. Virtually over half of the country is immersed in subzero temps. I had to save it, even though it is highly unlikely to verify that cold.

 

[Brent]

Euro has went from snow here Saturday morning to 60s

 

[TheBatman]

Euro has went from snow here Saturday morning to 60s

Yea, went from snow storm in mid south to nothing but rain. I guess there will be big swings until this pattern change actually happens.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

-0 becuase it’s probably -0.1 - -0.4 which is rounded to -0

THAT WAS MY GUESS BUT WANTED TO HEAR IT FROM SOME WHERE ELSE

 

[Brent]

arctic front is way slower this run, we do go from 60s to 30s during the day Saturday but the snow stays well north

 

[BufordWX]

Euro ends with a 1044 High dropping out of Canada. Not bad.

 

[GaWx]

Fv3 dropping the North Pole down at 348 LolView attachment 10889

I’ll take the over on that day lol. Keep in mind the FV3 cold bias, especially that far out in time.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

WELL THIS RUN ON GFS FOR THE 20-25 TIME FRAME FLAT OUT SUCKS AS FAR AS 2m TEMPS GO

 

[accu35]

6z gfs is run offs of 0z, To early to pin point A storms, just know that a storm signal is there. I bet 12z brings the goods back

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

6z gfs is run offs of 0z, To early to pin point A storms, just know that a storm signal is there. I bet 12z brings the goods back

OH YEA , I UNDERSTAND THAT BUT FROM JUST LOOKING AT THE MAPS ITS LIKE MAN

 

[packfan98]

6z GEFS Mean with potential for NC around the 20-21st and another threat for the entire SE around the 24th. Looks to be more opportunities to score after that as well.

 

[SnowNiner]

Ew, big anticyclones from the south into Greenland usually are a red flag of an impending +NAO as the jet is pushed poleward of the anticyclone. Hopefully that doesn’t verify

Is that true all the time? The 6z gefs nicely retrogrades the war to a nice full block up top, with a look similar to the weeklies. Are you saying if that happens it's likely to be a very temporary fixture?

Retrograding that ridge to a greenland block seems the only to way to get a -nao in the near term, as theres a permanent trough near Scandinavia.

 

[GaWx]

The 6Z FV3, similar to the 0Z run, has insane cold for the E half of the US late in the run (1/26-29). It even has two days way down here that barely make it to 32 (1/27 and 28)! Whereas I’m not at all saying this can’t or won’t happen with this pattern as it certainly could in the extreme, I’d say caution advised because it is two weeks out on a model with cold biased tendencies, especially that far out in time. By the way, 1/26-29 on that frigid run is, not surprisingly, dry in the SE outside of the mountains though moisture is pooling in the W GOM at the end of the run as H5 winds start shifting to a moist flow.