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Pattern Jammin' January

GaWx said:
Regardless, very low amp (inside the circle) of the colder phases in Jan 1975-2014 phases has averaged much colder in the SE US than outside the circle in the cold phases. This is based on 40 Jans of objective data, not a small sample. See my blog post on this if interested:

https://blog.southernwx.com/2017/01...phase-inside-the-left-side-of-circle-coldest/

Actually, inside the circle for each of the 8 phases averaged colder than outside for each respective phase in Jan. This doesn’t mean there weren’t any inside the left side of circle that were warm and it doesn’t mean there weren’t any well outside that were cold because there are always exceptions. My study looked at averages. See the diagram below and you’ll see that every phase inside the circle was colder than each respective outside phase.

If we’re just looking at El Niño, does that relationship still hold for Jan? I didn’t break the main study by ENSO because that would result in much smaller sample sizes for each phase. However, I just now did it and the idea not only held but it is even more pronounced! I found 10 El Niño cases for which there were at least a handful of days either inside/near the left half of the COD or in low amp 8 meaning I had to leave out 1980, 1987, 1992, 1995, and 2010.

1. Jan 1977 (coldest month on record):
KATL was 16 below normal (-16) when the MJO was near or inside the left half of the COD 1/17-30 vs a not as cold -12 the rest of the month, when it was still in mainly non-warm locations either inside the right half of COD or low amp just outside it in 2, 3 ,6, and 7:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197701.phase.90days.gif

2. Jan 1978:
When the MJO was either inside phases 7-8-1 or barely outside phase 1, which happened Jan 5-12, KATL was -11 vs a just about as cold -10 the rest of the month:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197801.phase.90days.gif

3. Jan 1983:
Jan 15-20 was -9 when the MJO was either or inside COD 7-8-1 or barely outside in 1 whereas the rest of the month averaged a much warmer -1:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198301.phase.90days.gif

4. Jan 1988:
KATL was during Jan 1-15 -8 when MJO was just either just outside COD phase 8 or inside COD phases 7-8-1-2 vs a much warmer 0 for the rest of the month, when it was outside COD in phases 2-3 just about every day:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198801.phase.90days.gif

5. Jan 1998:
During 1/23-31, when the MJO was either inside 7-8 or barely outside in 1, KATL was -1 vs a much warmer +4 the rest of the month
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/199801.phase.90days.gif

6. Jan 2003:
During 1/13-31, when the MJO was just about every day either inside the left half of the circle or barely outside in 8, KATL was -6 vs a much warmer 0 during 1/1-12 when the MJO was in low amp 5-6:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200301.phase.90days.gif

7. Jan 2005:
Jan 22-5, when the MJO was either inside the circle in 7-8 or barely outside in 8, was -7 in a month that outside of those days was a much warmer +5:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200501.phase.90days.gif

8. Jan 2007:
Jan 18-25, when the MJO was inside the circle phase 7, was -2 whereas the rest of the month was a much warmer +4:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200701.phase.90days.gif

9. Jan 2015:
Just outside COD phase 8 or inside 7-8, which was the case 1/23-7, KATL was -1 vs 0 the rest of Jan. So, still barely colder though almost a wash this time:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201501.phase.90days.gif

10. Jan 2016:
It was near or inside the COD phases 2-3 Jan 20-25, when KATL was -5 vs a much warmer 0 of the rest of the month:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201601.phase.90days.gif

Analysis of the 10 analyzed Nino Jans:

A. KATL averaged a very cold -7.5 during the 98 days of Nino Jans when on/inside COD or low amp 8 vs -2 for the same for non-Nino Jans. So, if anything, the idea of being coldest on average when inside/low amp left is actually stronger when in a Nino!

B. For these 10 Nino Jans, compare this -7.5 with near 0 for the other days. In 8 of these 10 months, the inside left COD/low amp 8 was much colder than the rest of the month and barely colder for the other 2 Jans. It was never warmer.

C. Summarizing, the 10 analyzed Nino Jan periods at ATL were -16, -11, -9, -8, -1, -6, -7, -1, -2, -5 vs normal. So, none were warmer than normal and 7 were significantly colder than normal.

Conclusion:
For El Nino Jans, the coldest position to be in MJOwise on average for the SE US having been inside the left half of the circle or just outside left especially in phase 8 is more pronounced than for non-Nino Jans! So, whereas there are always exceptions for these kinds of analyses, the best chance for the SE US to have a sustained period of very cold this month would appear to me to be when the MJO is on the left side (7/8/1/2) either within or near the COD or a little further outside mainly in 8. That being said, this doesn't mean it can't be very cold when the MJO is elsewhere, especially in the higher amp of the left phases (7/8/1/2).
Click to expand...
So we are finally heading out of the worst phase it appears??
 
EPS does have some nice trends inside day 10, pushing lp off the pole...it just doesn't build upon them day 10 and on.

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_nhem_fh168_trend.gif



18z GEFS is what we want if we want to see a flip before February.

GEFS Ensembles Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 384.png
 
Day 15 on the GFS and Canadian ensembles

d6981f47d98f15582c9627578d6b3fd3.jpg

d5e32c706a6089fc12eb31280400a0bc.jpg



And the euro.
147fad0b06998eaa02f75c51760c7328.jpg


I’m breaking my own rules posting 15-day model runs but the GEFS and GEPS being so similar isn’t an accident.


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deltadog03 said:
So we are finally heading out of the worst phase it appears??
Click to expand...

Absolutely. Based on any way to look at it, high amplitude phase 5 is the worst. So, it can only get better from here. By the way, SAV obliterated its record high for Jan 1 by 4 with today’s 83! Technically today we may have already moved into MJO 6. It looks like it is finally on the move. Let’s see where she goes. Going to be fun to watch.
 
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Jon said:
Day 15 on the GFS and Canadian ensembles

d6981f47d98f15582c9627578d6b3fd3.jpg

d5e32c706a6089fc12eb31280400a0bc.jpg



And the euro.
147fad0b06998eaa02f75c51760c7328.jpg


I’m breaking my own rules posting 15-day model runs but the GEFS and GEPS being so similar isn’t an accident.


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Click to expand...
I feel like what the Euro is showing is extremely atypical for Niño. Big trough building out west doesnt make much sense to me. But i’m just a guy
 
Nice potential for parts of the NE to rebuild some snowpack next week. We’re going to need all the help we can getF8899890-B074-4076-A6D5-F75BBD8E7718.png
 
If you take a look in Canada this is mid range. You will see where eastern parts of Canada is getting colder with this run vs previous runs 548C806A-BE99-4BBC-9830-4CC1E997AA9A.gif
 
-40° to -50° in Canada at the end of this GFS run is unreal. How do we get some of that air to break loose and come our way?
 
ghost1 said:
-40° to -50° in Canada at the end of this GFS run is unreal. How do we get some of that air to break loose and come our way?
Click to expand...

d34c2dbd4390f409a7bfea3f3293bb8f.jpg


Polar vortex “lobe” pays a visit. Basically we would just need to fix the ridging out west and this thing is digging deep. Blocking over the top on the last frame too...usually when models show PVs coming to Hudson Bay they mean business...even if it’s the last frame, the model is seeing something (although the normal wait for ensembles and multi model support is always needed). I remember the control run of the euro predicting a PV digging into the east one year when the Op didn’t show it yet.



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0Z EPS still not looking improved through 1/14. For you guys wanting to go night-night now, I'd go ahead and hit the sack.
Edit: run is over. Still not even close to the GEFS and not even close to the GEPS. The only glimmer of improvement is a slightly more -AO vs prior runs though not nearly as -AO as GEFS, if it is -AO at all. This may end up being a very slow process of improvement from run to run if it is going to do so though history says there will be a decent chance for one run to make a big positive jump. We'll see. Night-night.
 
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So ... if y’all could get it to quit raining... I’d be satisfied with that!!! Even though the warm weather would make me grumpy... at least I wouldn’t get a hernia twice a day trying to clean up the dog to bring her in?.
 
-9.42 on the SOI today. It appears to have officially made the flip and crashed negative. Hopefully, good times are ahead with our pattern change.
 
Good to see some EPS and GEFS in the same ballpark now. GEFS holding the eastern ridge now and EPS developing a little more blocking.

They say it could take 2-4 weeks before effect of a mSSW is felt in NA, we are on day 2. Sucks having to be patient but from the ensemble runs below we better get comfortable waiting.


GEFS Ensembles Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 312.png14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 312 (1).png
 
No guarantees with an SSW. The worst would be watching lobes of cold air into the northeast and MA or to the west while we stay in this late March weather pattern.


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GEFS moves towards the EPS of short trip through 7/8 and back into COD and heads back to 5-6. Similar to 2005.

combphase_noCFSfull.gif
 
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