Pattern Jammin' January

[Kylo]

I’m not saying the MJO is necessarily going to track like that. But in case it does, this is from my MJO post of yesterday:
“7. Jan 2005:
Jan 22-5, when the MJO was either inside the circle in 7-8 or barely outside in 8, was -7 in a month that outside of those days was a much warmer +5:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200501.phase.90days.gif”

Also, note that Jan of 2015, which was during another weak El Niño, had something somewhat similar:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201501.phase.90days.gif

And then you have something like 78...which everyone was hoping would be a viable analog for this winter. It traversed phase 4-6 for about 2 weeks end of Jan into Feb, "warm phases" and it was a frozen tundra across the conus. Seems like MJO plays a part and we use it as an excuse when it's warm and we hope when it moves to colder phases. Seems like it just wants to be warm with small windows of cold the past few winters and including this one. We just hope to get lucky in those brief periods of cold. We sure have been lucky the past couple of winters, including this one already.

 

[Rain Cold]

He’s still not going to get his sub -5 for DJF that he has for N GA/E TN and nearby. That would require a turnaround of unheard of epic proportions that has not occurred since records started in the 1870s at least. He should at least go ahead and admit that that won’t happen now.

Yeah, that seems to be pretty much off the table. You mentioned earlier about the warm Arctic. On a related note, the SSTs in the Pacific seem to be running pretty warm. I wonder if that is muting the impact of the Nino at all due to there not being as much contrast?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I don't know what it is, but something about seeing his image makes me want to punch a kitten.

Yes I’m curious to see how a daughter vortice just south of greenland can give me seasonal temps when it’s effects are felt in 3 weeks

With the SOI going negative perhaps the atmosphere starts acting like a nino, and nino climo starts to take over, making it more likely to keep the +PNA/-EPO combo.

truer words have never been spoken. You took the words right out of my keyboard. We had what seemed to be a very atypical La Niña last year especially in the first half of winter and a very ordinary La Niña pattern in the back half of winter. I’m banking on backhalf Niño conditions taking over at some point after the third week in January for 3-4 weeks (slightly BN) followed by a seasonal to warm end to winter and spring. There will be a few big Nor’easters before this one is over. Hopefully we can get in on that Miller A track. I’m still optimistic

 

[GaWx]

Not that I look at it anymore on a regular basis, but rumor has it that the 6Z GFS was frigid starting late 1/14 and continuing through 1/15-7. Anyone give a poop?

 

[Kylo]

FV3 really been tanking the AO past few runs...good to see.

Even with a hostile pac, if we could get some nice blocking we could always fluke one. We don't need it cold for the next 8 weeks, just need it cold for a day or two before a wave tracks south of us.

 

[deltadog03]

As said before the SOI continues to hit bigger NEG values. This will definitely send some jolts to the pattern if it continues. Also keep the MJO progression moving.

 

[Storm5]

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[Storm5]

FV3 really been tanking the AO past few runs...good to see.

Even with a hostile pac, if we could get some nice blocking we could always fluke one. We don't need it cold for the next 8 weeks, just need it cold for a day or two before a wave tracks south of us.

View attachment 9897

I love when indices are literally off the chart


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[packfan98]

He hasn't really explained this yet. I'm guessing it's because there were so many indicators that were supporting a cold winter when the forecasts were issued. And also, because winter isn't over yet.

 

[GaWx]

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Per this chart anyway, the peak intensity is disappointing to me: only ~+21 anomaly at 100 hPa vs my expectation per models of +28+ (brown):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png

However, the length of this one (width on the charts) may turn out to be notable vs past cases fwiw as Randal Gates suggests in the above tweet.

 

[GaWx]

Rumor has it that the 12Z GFS, after being very warm, is similar to the last couple for midmonth with nonpoopy maps.

 

[GaStorm]

Per this chart anyway, the peak intensity is disappointing to me: only ~+21 anomaly at 100 hPa vs my expectation per models of +28+ (brown):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png

However, the length of this one (width on the charts) may turn out to be notable vs past cases fwiw as Randal Gates suggests in the above tweet.

Would the duration being longer allow blocking to last longer as well?

 

[GaWx]

Would the duration being longer allow blocking to last longer as well?

Good question. I haven't the faintest idea. I've always been under the impression it was the strength that was the most important factor. But every SSW is different as far as downstream effects are concerned. Meanwhile, I'm still waiting to see if the EPS will ever fold.

 

[accu35]

So I'm guessing by end of next week, we can flip the pattern for the better for us southerner? I'm fine flipping pattern middle of January with cold as long we get those storms rolling in.

 

[GaWx]

So I'm guessing by end of next week, we can flip the pattern for the better for us southerner? I'm fine flipping pattern middle of January with cold as long we get those storms rolling in.

Let's hope that it even flips mid-month. The EPS, the most accurate model in general, says no dice through the end of its last run.

 

[Storm5]

So I'm guessing by end of next week, we can flip the pattern for the better for us southerner? I'm fine flipping pattern middle of January with cold as long we get those storms rolling in.

I would extend your expectations to later in the month


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[deltadog03]

This is from the 12z GFS *still running*.
look how much different we are on the pressure patterns by D10.
Now vs D10

 

[deltadog03]

look at last nights EPS....
current vs D10 forecast....

 

[Jessy89]

If we could just get one Storm. That could satisfy 75 percent of the southeast Georgia South Carolina North Carolina Mississippi Alabama. Tennessee. I’d be extremely satisfied and wouldn’t ask for another this year


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[deltadog03]

WORLDS different at 500mb anomolies