• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

I can confirm the fv has a bias where HP’s are way to strong, noticing that a lot now and these hp’s never verify
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm not sure if the FV3 runs belong here or in the banter thread at this point. A 1057mb high? Really?
fv3p_mslpa_us_37.png
Click to expand...
It could happen. No kidding.
 
FV3 has some wintry in the western part of the SE but the SE ridge got even stronger this run. So it's more Louisiana and Western Mississippi.
 
Almost like we are going to continue to struggle to get the millar A we want. But we have the cold shots


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The 18z GEFS hasn’t disappointed over the last couple of nights. The ridge out west continues to look better starting next weekend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
gawxnative said:
My bit of a thought though is remember that in winter systems the models show thing "way out" then will "lose them" 7-10 days out only to "find them" again 5 days out. Several times, IMO that has led to some of the better systems..
Click to expand...

SD said:
I'm not sure I would consider 3-5 days really kicking the can, its not like we are saying by early February we will be better. The 20th and 23rd systems are also worth keeping an eye on, I just believe they are more likely to end up to our NW.
Click to expand...

I agree, that has happened before, and I also agree that 3 to 5 days is not a long time. But I meant from now to the 25th is a long time when it comes to weather. Maybe I am being greedy, but we were liking at three possible systems between the 20th and 25th, and now it looks like we are looking more at just the 25th. Maybe there is so much going on that week and so many possibilities that the models are going to be going back and forth like crazy until then.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I agree, that has happened before, and I also agree that 3 to 5 days is not a long time. But I meant from now to the 25th is a long time when it comes to weather. Maybe I am being greedy, but we were liking at three possible systems between the 20th and 25th, and now it looks like we are looking more at just the 25th. Maybe there is so much going on that week and so many possibilities that the models are going to be going back and forth like crazy until then.
Click to expand...

Why are you discounting the 20-21st system especially for your area
09623f0b946144c0a851f8f178d53689.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Everyone has their own personal preference, but personally we're evolving into precisely the kind of pattern I want to have at this time of the year. Having a nice North Pacific ridge to seed our backyard with the coldest air in the entire northern hemisphere from Siberia at or near the peak of our snow climo at the tail end of January & early February, a huge vortex over south-central Canada to suppress and shear the southern stream waves that will be more frequent due to the ongoing El Nino and subseasonal forcing is fantastic. This the type of large-scale recipe that's often most readily capable of generating beautiful southern sliders that affect virtually the entire southernwx board. I could honestly care less what individual storms look like on specific operational runs this far in advance, the pattern is what actually matters & I seriously love what I'm seeing.
 
Storm5 said:
Why are you discounting the 20-21st system especially for your area
09623f0b946144c0a851f8f178d53689.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Maybe it is better chance than I thought. Just sounded like everyone was writing off the 20th and looking further down the road. The mean looks good there, but the control is meh.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Everyone has their own personal preference, but personally we're evolving into precisely the kind of pattern I want to have at this time of the year. Having a nice North Pacific ridge to seed our backyard with the coldest air in the entire northern hemisphere from Siberia at or near the peak of our snow climo at the tail end of January & early February, a huge vortex over south-central Canada to suppress and shear the southern stream waves that will be more frequent due to the ongoing El Nino and subseasonal forcing is fantastic. This the type of large-scale recipe that's often most readily capable of generating beautiful southern sliders that affect virtually the entire southernwx board.
Click to expand...
Plus, this past weekend gave a pretty decent snow pack to the north to lessen any modification to temps, should it maintain with the dry week ahead
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe it is better chance than I thought. Just sounded like everyone was writing off the 20th and looking further down the road. The mean looks good there, but the control is meh.
Click to expand...

Kylo , Webb, 1300m , Jon and others have given ample reason over the last 48 hours as to why you should keep an eye on that system . They have also been screaming from the mountain tops that we will see different looks on the OP runs .

You have to learn to weed out the trolls that react negatively to every single run that does not give them a foot and take them below zero . We have between 3-5 on this board . If you don’t know who they are PM me and I’ll send you the list .

It will benefit you if you listen to those that know what the hell they are talking about vs buying into what the trolls put and somehow believing everything is failing


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Everyone has their own personal preference, but personally we're evolving into precisely the kind of pattern I want to have at this time of the year. Having a nice North Pacific ridge to seed our backyard with the coldest air in the entire northern hemisphere from Siberia at or near the peak of our snow climo at the tail end of January & early February, a huge vortex over south-central Canada to suppress and shear the southern stream waves that will be more frequent due to the ongoing El Nino and subseasonal forcing is fantastic. This the type of large-scale recipe that's often most readily capable of generating beautiful southern sliders that affect virtually the entire southernwx board. I could honestly care less what individual storms look like on specific operational runs this far in advance, the pattern is what actually matters & I seriously love what I'm seeing.
Click to expand...
It's definitely my second favorite. I'll admit it - I still feel robbed from the 12/26/2010 system. A phase 6 hours earlier and RDU is looking at 20"+ of snow again and I want another shot at it with a strong west-based negative NAO. But I actually think the pattern we're progressing into -- where a major overrunning event is the most likely storm type -- while it reduces that small opportunity for deformation band insaneness, widely increases the coverage of significant to even major accumulating snow given this juiced up southern stream. I still wholeheartedly believe RDU has another 6"+ opportunity in the cards over the next 1.5 months, and many others do too.
 
The 18Z FV3 is the 2nd in a row that doesn’t go off the deep end with historic extreme cold in the SE US after two extremely cold runs for late month. This one has a rare far southern GOM to S FL very weak low that is capable of producing snow very deep in the SE and actually does on this run 1/26-7. This is the one whatalife posted.
 
Storm5 said:
Kylo , Webb, 1300m , Jon and others have given ample reason over the last 48 hours as to why you should keep an eye on that system . They have also been screaming from the mountain tops that we will see different looks on the OP runs .

You have to learn to weed out the trolls that react negatively to every single run that does not give them a foot and take them below zero . We have between 3-5 on this board . If you don’t know who they are PM me and I’ll send you the list .

It will benefit you if you listen to those that know what the hell they are talking about vs buying into what the trolls put and somehow believing everything is failing


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Weather forum user's guide first two paragraphs ;)
 
1300m said:
It's definitely my second favorite. I'll admit it - I still feel robbed from the 12/26/2010 system. A phase 6 hours earlier and RDU is looking at 20"+ of snow again and I want another shot at it with a strong west-based negative NAO. But I actually think the pattern we're progressing into -- where a major overrunning event is the most likely storm type -- while it reduces that small opportunity for deformation band insaneness, widely increases the coverage of significant to even major accumulating snow given this juiced up southern stream. I still wholeheartedly believe RDU has another 6"+ opportunity in the cards over the next 1.5 months, and many others do too.
Click to expand...
Absolutely, I also personally felt robbed with the Dec 2010 storm especially considering I wasn't even in NC at the time to experience it & it's the largest storm to hit my part of NC since I've been a resident here, so it still hurts to say the least.

Exactly, Charlotte usually gets the shaft with coastal cyclones as it is & I've already accepted my fate that there's probably going to be mixed precipitation types at some point in almost any setup here, so a nice overrunning/anafront or Miller B that usually is characterized by front-end thumping of snow flipping to ice is perfectly ok by me.

Raleigh & points north are honestly playing with house money the rest of the winter and I really hope you get another 6+ event. This winter is just one big dog away from being in the same conversation as some of the legendary winters in the early-mid 20th century in NC as a whole. Bring it on.
 
Here's a preliminary map of the ice storm that struck NC late yesterday and early this morning merging data from NWS Local Storm Reports, CoCoRaHS, mPING, & person communication. For some parts of western NC, this is their 3rd significant ice storm of the winter & we're not even halfway thru our seasonal climo yet.
January 12-13 2019 NC Snowmap.png



November 23-24 2018 NC Snowmap.png
November 14-15 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
Storm5 said:
Kylo , Webb, 1300m , Jon and others have given ample reason over the last 48 hours as to why you should keep an eye on that system . They have also been screaming from the mountain tops that we will see different looks on the OP runs .

You have to learn to weed out the trolls that react negatively to every single run that does not give them a foot and take them below zero . We have between 3-5 on this board . If you don’t know who they are PM me and I’ll send you the list .

It will benefit you if you listen to those that know what the hell they are talking about vs buying into what the trolls put and somehow believing everything is failing


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I vote that surface maps beyond 192hrs are considered banter. That will stop most of it right there.
 
Warning long post lol.

I will say I love where this pattern is heading. As countless people have posted already on here, the indices are looking much better. SOI is still diving negative and signs of life from the NAO and PNA and EPO are encouraging. That said:
OP runs and even ENS are going to be flipping and flopping all over the place next 1-6 weeks or so. Trolls go away, no need for that crap on here. This is a place to learn and gain knowledge about the weather. With all that being said the biggest reason why I want to post this is the European is still showing the possibility of something for this upcoming weekend. The trends to me show that, if it continues it’s not that far off from producing something Wintry in the Southeast. I like the slower look of the SW shortwave, and also the splitting of the northern stream. Hopefully the weak ridging will go away with time. Either way, to me there is some potential for the weekend system and TONS of potential the next 8 weeks.

Here is the euro runs all centered on Sunday at 12Z
689C8C5D-D21A-41DB-A0B1-3DB267FEFDF0.jpeg6654C1BA-2F97-4335-980D-5D229EDC06AF.jpeg79D1C09A-2A6E-4ED2-9558-418D0A2EB37E.jpegAD660BAA-40B6-4B83-A0A3-793E0F90D3E8.jpeg
 
The CPC has sub-zero wind chill probability graphics to corroborate their temperature outlooks & interestingly they're forecasting a near or above 50% chance for sub zero wind chills along & north of the I-40 corridor. This is at least 3-4x higher than the long-term climatology. Yowza


49413399_224978335058700_8018334226552193024_n.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top