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Pattern Jammin' January

Rain Cold said:
I don't mean this as a slight to anyone, but I don't know why people who post in a public forum for the intent of public consumption don't try to articulate their point in a manner that is easily understood. I get the value in being very very very very very very smart. But it seems like you'd also want to be understood well and place as much value on developing communication skills as academic ones. The exception would be if you are communicating in an academic forum. But I digress.

Anyway, we can't really say that January is toast. I think we can safely say that about half of it is. But what the second half holds, remains to be seen. And there certainly have been a few signals that have developed over the past couple of days that should inspire a bit of optimism. Hopefully, that will continue.
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I agree, it seems sometimes there is an intent to sound academic and technical on purpose to create a desired identity. That wouldn't seem very valuable to me unless you're only proposing to speak to your peers. I appreciate those who dumb it down for me! HM has valuable information, but if I don't understand it, how do I benefit?

Yeah I'm still hopeful and optimistic on the second half of the month into February. And even if we are pushed to Feb 1, if, if, if, everything comes together as it could and potentially may (nino climo, blocking up top, strat warming propagation along with the active STJ we've been seeing this year)...it would be one a heck of a February.
 
A bit of an interesting twist on the 12Z Doc starting 1/9. Let's see how it ends.

At the very least, this shows how fast things can change from one operational run to the next. It is sort of like, "Where did this solution come from?" Much deeper plunge of cold into the Midwest. Chicago is merely 20 degrees colder than 0Z run had.
 
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This is a European guy, so yeah...but there seems to be more and more discussion about this propagating down. Will it? It seems like the GEFS thinks so I'd say.

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And the Euro still looks good after that initial MW cold plunge to end its run. Folks are going to like the 240 hour 12Z Euro and CMC much better than 0Z versions due to their western ridging, but I recommend folks not get overly excited just yet! These came out of nowhere.
 
GaWx said:
And the Euro still looks good after that initial MW cold plunge to end its run. Folks are going to like the 240 hour 12Z Euro and CMC much better than 0Z versions due to their western ridging, but I recommend folks not get overly excited just yet! These came out of nowhere.
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Maybe this is the start of the eps joining the epo party? Hopeful.

Edit. Lol, ninjad by Larry.
 
My suspicion is the EPS is going to look better. I know that's like predicting the outcome of a bet on a bet of the bet of an outcome, but hey, I'm sticking with it anyway.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS changes are only subtle in the 6-10. Still warm/much warmer than the GEFS/GEPS in the 11-15.
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How does the Euro Op at 240 compare with the GFS/CMC Ops and their ensembles at 240? Reason I ask is that if we have a similar look from all camps at 240 with the exception of the EPS, it may indicate the EPS is having difficulty.
 
Rain Cold said:
How does the Euro Op at 240 compare with the GFS/CMC Ops and their ensembles at 240? Reason I ask is that if we have a similar look from all camps at 240 with the exception of the EPS, it may indicate the EPS is having difficulty.
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Fairly similar. Good point as the EPS, though the best overall, is sometimes too slow with changes in a zonal flow.
 
packfan98 said:
Looking at the 5H maps, the new 12z EPS has the Pac jet being cut off and more evidence of a developing split flow on days 9-10. Looks improved over 0z to me.
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I saw that but it then reverts to zonal doodoo in the 11-15.
 
It's just because it smooths out the various solutions. I like the ensembles and find value in ensemble forecasting. But at the end of the day, the outcome will probably not be the mean solution here. I would be very surprised if we ended up zonal for a lengthy period. Going back to some earlier discussions, you'll probably see the ensembles "correct" toward what some other variables are hinting at (mjo moving into a different phase, the propensity of HL blocking setting up via strat warming, SOI declining, etc.) In fact, the depiction of a zonal flow may be the beginning of such a correction. That said, ultimately, the "correction" may not turn out the way we all hope, but I wouldn't get too discouraged by seeing zonal in the ensembles late in the period. Now, if we saw a strong signal for a blazing SE ridge and a raging -PNA, that's a different story altogether.
 
Here's my guess on how things play out, at this point:

We see the MJO start to force a better pattern somewhere in the week of 1/20. At some point in the not-too-distant future beyond that, we see the effects of the SSW exert, maintaining a generally cold pattern, compliments of HL blocking. This, coupled with the generally good climo period should yield a solid 4-6 week period of winter. I don't think it'll be record-breaking in terms of being intensely cold for a lengthy duration. But it should definitely raise the prospects of multiple winter storm threads, as the STJ remains active.
 
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