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Pattern Jammin' January

MBell said:
At this point, I feel like there is zero point in living and dying by the models. They aren't exact science and they rarely are accurate outside of the short term window aside from picking up on "ideas" that have no definite solution until the short term. Living in the south, we have to realize that winter and snow are highly dependent on getting all the variables in our favor at the right moment in unison with one another. While I feel confident as an enthusiast that these will work out for some of us somewhere before winter ends, until that happens, I am happy with what is given to us. All we can honestly do is keep peeking at what is shown and wait for that moment where something pops and give us something to at least track because just because it's going to be in the 60s this week for most, that isn't the end all for winter. It's the south.. we do this every year for the most part. Let's just keep pushing forward and eventually we'll get something to track... even if it doesn't plow through our backyard directly with snow... it will for someone! :) At any rate, I am tired of all this dang rain!!! If it's going to be warm, let's get some sunshine with it at least you know!? lol.
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Indeed...The winter is not over and at some point things will break to a colder pattern. My gut say by the end of the month things will look different and until then we get to enjoy the warmth for a little while longer.


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The weekend of the 11th has potential on the FailV3...big high building in the plains..needs some work even if it doesn’t go *poof*..why not? I love disappointment 32B0FC27-B8D3-4033-ADF0-A87CCF853824.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The weekend of the 11th has potential on the FailV3...big high building in the plains..needs some work even if it doesn’t go *poof*..why not? I love disappointment View attachment 9930
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System moves north out of Baja then east, then SE. It bothers me a lot that this model does things in the long range that do not seem to be even reasonable. I mean 384 fantasy Miller A systems at least are a pattern that exist in real life. It did good with the Dec system so I don't want to totally bash it but it seems to do some un-natural things.
 
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Nomanslandva said:
System moves north out of Baja then east, then SE. It bothers me a lot that this model does things in the long range that do not seem to be even reasonable. I mean 384 fantasy Miller A systems at least are a pattern that exist in real life. It did good with the Dec system so I don't want to totally bash it but it seems to do some un-natural things.
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This winter, so far, has done some unnatural things, and it looks to continue on a parade of its own; now which street or corner winter decides to turn up or round next week for its continued Machiavellian march (no pun) is any blonde model's guess ...
 
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We don't know exactly what the SSW will have an affect on the southeast region yet. I doubt the cold will lock in place during mid month. I think the pattern will be transitional, from strong cold shots to warmer periods. It will also be a dryer pattern. The first cold shot looks to be between the 12th/15th of this month. We'll also need to keep a watch for any storm systems between the cold shots.

I think it will be getting really cold (possibly the PV getting locked in place, at times) by late this month or by mid Feb.
 
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Looking at the higher than normal heights across the globe on the ensembles, it really makes me think back to last Feb. The models consistantly had the higher anom heights even in the troughs.I remember being sure, along with others that they would trend lower and they didnt and Fab Feb was a Fab Bust before cooling down in March.

Considering the SSW happened a month earlier this year, if we follow the same path it will be in Feb before we see any real change. Just food for thought.
 
Tonight’s GEFS has slowed its progression and is more in line with the EPS. Shocker. If you’re planning a chase this winter you may want to consider Bangor, Maine bc the white stuff aint falling around here anytime soon
 
Why was the GEFS bad I haven’t seen it yet?
 
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Kylo said:
I have no idea what he is talking about but I know it isn’t good based on the tone. The sky is falling was the gist I got.
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I love how people ask him what he means and he never dumbs it down, haha.

Anyway...the Pacific overwhelming and delaying/preventing the pattern change. There’s no end in sight for mild wet bs making its way over the United States. What else is new. I hope he is wrong for our sake.


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Storm5 said:
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Simply put...There is no end in sight for this warm winter we are having and good luck on a cold pattern change at the end of this month if what he is saying doesn’t change.


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whatalife said:
Simply put...There is no end in sight for this warm winter we are having and good luck on a cold pattern change at the end of this month if what he is saying doesn’t change.


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Yea I think you are right, the PAC is too active and the warmth will be hard to remove. I think we are in deep . We still might get a cold pattern but I think February and March is the new goal. We might only have 1-2 chances this winter. Poop poop.


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The GEPS weeklies seem to get a wannabe -EPO/+PNA and builds a -AO just after day 10. Then continued to pump the -AO.
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This pattern reminds me of last December due to the ridging to the east. (Bear with me, since government shutdown I don’t have readily accessible anomaly maps)
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The pattern then evolved to this shortly after
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NoSnowATL said:
Yea I think you are right, the PAC is too active and the warmth will be hard to remove. I think we are in deep . We still might get a cold pattern but I think February and March is the new goal. We might only have 1-2 chances this winter. Poop poop.


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What happened to the warm oceans, cool continents theory! We should be freezing
 
Tarheel1 said:
What happened to the warm oceans, cool continents theory! We should be freezing
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It’s cold just not on our side. I’m sure Webb and 1300 will call us out but I think we need to just hope for 1-2 weeks. This winter will definitely be a learning tool for future winters. I’ve learn more this winter then ever.


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