It might flex at times but I don’t think we have to worry about that yet
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I would think it would actually help in this situation. Keeping storms from being suppressed.
Looks like our long range storm is probably going to be back. 
And looks like incoming. 324 hour
Let’s push that ridge to the east out to sea and get a wave riding that mammoth ridge out west and we’d be in business. I mean we’re so close to glory it’s sickening
Almost looks like a southern slider then it cuts at the last minute. 
I think to add to it all, there is a lot of energy flying all around as well. That will lead to wild op solutions
#Fail
And the artic gates opening again at the end of the run.
I think it’s just a matter of time guys. It’s just timing all these moving pieces just right for us to get a big storm.
Going to be a big storm or miss in this setup.
I think it’s just a matter of time guys. It’s just timing all these moving pieces just right for us to get a big storm.
Going to be a big storm or miss in this setup.
One thing I am fairly confident of: Someone somewhere on this board is going to be digging out within the next 2-3 weeks
Nasty cold at the end.
Shortwave ridging due to the deep trough over the US. Gonna deal with that unless you get a big time block. That said, it isnt horrible.
There will most definitely be a big storm before January comes to a close. I just don’t know who’s storm it is yet. I’m almost happy snow isn’t showing up here on the LR operationals. It’s going to be extremely hard for models to peg anything from
a distance with that big fluctuating ridge going up out west. No west to east long distance trackers in this coming pattern. Lots of moving parts but lots of potential as well
Someone besides me I hope.
Yes If I have to look at one more picture of your beautiful snow I’m going to gouge my eyeballs out
Paging Larry..... MJO forecast as Well have it swinging over to bad phases in long range. But caution about that. They did bad the last 2 weeks. Verification images included. 2 week then 1 week verification time images below.
See how I know most here only look at surface maps? The obvious threat ~240hrs wasnt mentioned. Haha
Halfway thru 0z GEFS. 
Yeah, I agree SoutheastRidge will be digging out up there in IN. But how about someone in the SE?
Yeah, I see a few days being projected in the dreaded outside in phase 5, but the amp. is much lower and speed much faster vs late Dec. Then it scoots nicely to the left toward circle which I love to see. Hopefully, the GEFS idea of getting further left verifies as opposed to EPS circling back into 6.
Word on the MA forum was the FVTree was rain next weekend even for them..so there’s that
H5 looks pretty good until interactions with the northern stream and a big time phase end it. The same thing happens with the next storm. As has been said a thousand times, that wont be modeled closely at all for 7 more days.
yea basically meh. The low is about a 800 miles difference on the new GFS. 800 miles Northeast.
agreed, and the 1st system, this upcoming weekend, the energy is trending away from each other. as you know and have seen.....euro will be interesting tonight to see if it's trend of separation continues.
I love seeing the uptick in the GEFS mean, with some snow even down in the GOM. That tells me more of the ensembles are seeing what we want to happen.
ANY OF THE HIGHLIGHTED MEMBERS WILL WORK . THAT ONE CIRCLED IN RED IS BAD FOR THE CAROLINAS
Definitely making progress.
Here’s it the GFS and New GFS.. just a few miles apart. Lol
A lot will change on this in the next 7 days
Old gfs
New GFS
A lot will change on this in the next 7 days
Old gfs
New GFS
FV3 has a snow hit too for the Southeast. About the same timeframe that the Old GFS does. It’s a nice track of a low pressure for many on here to get a snow. 
MEMBER 3 IS GOOD FOR THE WHOLE EAST COAST
MEMBER 19 NOT SO MUCH
MEMBER 19 NOT SO MUCH
Brent
Member
the weekend storm on the Euro is so close to at least being some wraparound flakes for a lot
This 0z Euro much warmer is it due to MJO???
ALL THIS COLD AIR IS WAITING TO BE RELEASED.
JUST GO AHEAD AND OPEN THE GATES AND SEND IT SOUTH
JUST GO AHEAD AND OPEN THE GATES AND SEND IT SOUTH
The 0Z EPS has an absolutely beautiful -NAO that first gets established 1/23 and then strengthens and remains through the end of the run. Meanwhile, the -AO, which was already in existence earlier, strengthens to very strong levels late in the run.
Showmeyourtds
Member
06z Goof is running. Looks like the LP transition from just west of Atlanta @ hr 138. Over the upstate of SC on the next frame, then over the Delmarva @ hr 150. A bit more of a gradual NE turn rather than the abrupt one observed on the earlier run.
NOTE- I did not check heights or dynamics to see what's going on with the northern stream, but something seems to be nudging this just a smidge south of earlier guidance. Much of TN sees backside snow with this run.
NOTE- I did not check heights or dynamics to see what's going on with the northern stream, but something seems to be nudging this just a smidge south of earlier guidance. Much of TN sees backside snow with this run.