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Pattern Jammin' January

Rain Cold said:
Here's my guess on how things play out, at this point:

We see the MJO start to force a better pattern somewhere in the week of 1/20. At some point in the not-too-distant future beyond that, we see the effects of the SSW exert, maintaining a generally cold pattern, compliments of HL blocking. This, coupled with the generally good climo period should yield a solid 4-6 week period of winter. I don't think it'll be record-breaking in terms of being intensely cold for a lengthy duration. But it should definitely raise the prospects of multiple winter storm threads, as the STJ remains active.
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To me this is a very reasonable way to view the pattern. We haven't seen extreme one way or the other so I don't expect record cold at this point. I can't remember the last time we had so much rain in winter. It wouldn't take much to meet up with cold air once the pattern allows it.
 
Rain Cold said:
Here's my guess on how things play out, at this point:

We see the MJO start to force a better pattern somewhere in the week of 1/20. At some point in the not-too-distant future beyond that, we see the effects of the SSW exert, maintaining a generally cold pattern, compliments of HL blocking. This, coupled with the generally good climo period should yield a solid 4-6 week period of winter. I don't think it'll be record-breaking in terms of being intensely cold for a lengthy duration. But it should definitely raise the prospects of multiple winter storm threads, as the STJ remains active.
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I agree with this but wouldn't be surprised if we see the pattern turn favorable a little earlier in the 1/10-15 range. I think it will be a fairly gradual progression too, not a sudden flip to Arctic cold but a gradual change to cooler weather before the bottom drops out. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a chunk of the PV break off like the FV3 has hinted at bringing some major cold to the US if it does. We usually seem to get a 4-6 week period with threats to track and my money would be on January 15 through late February/first week of March as our best chance with how things appear to be setting up.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some wintry solutions showing up on some models in the Jan 10-15 period. Usually with pattern changes there will be some nice winter storm chances for the SE, at least that's something I've personally noticed over the years.
 
I agree with Rain Cold as far as the ensembles smoothing our solutions. Ensembles are good for telling you if the op run is “on crack” or if a certain pattern in the future is more likely. If the various ensembles are scattered you get a smoothed out mean but very little help. The 5H pattern on the ensembles is a little wonky nor does it agree with or is consistent with other telecommections/MJO/etc. this does not mean that we are for sure entering a cold pattern, bit right now ensembles aren’t much more helpful than the ops, IMHO.
 
Since the government is shut down (Yay Yay) and composites and other data are not at the fingertips (Nay Nay), this is coming mostly from memory and a few internal notes ... but if memory serves correct, December 1983, January 1985, and December 1989 each came with a massive cold shot, preceded and followed by relative (significant?) warmth. One and done so to speak. If memory serves correct. Regardless, that may well be what we're looking at (a true cold spell and then bye bye). No science on this ... just pure gut ... but it would fit the pattern ...
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't mean this as a slight to anyone, but I don't know why people who post in a public forum for the intent of public consumption don't try to articulate their point in a manner that is easily understood. I get the value in being very very very very very very smart. But it seems like you'd also want to be understood well and place as much value on developing communication skills as academic ones. The exception would be if you are communicating in an academic forum. But I digress.

Anyway, we can't really say that January is toast. I think we can safely say that about half of it is. But what the second half holds, remains to be seen. And there certainly have been a few signals that have developed over the past couple of days that should inspire a bit of optimism. Hopefully, that will continue.
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I agree, some of the things said here are too technical. Some reader's may not have any understanding of what they're talking about. You're right, things have to be simplified for the public to understand it. Sure, text book meteorological vocabulary can be used, but simplify it. Like what Albert Einstein said, "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough."
 
This 18Z GEFS wasn't that good. It backtracked some more and is the warmest of the least few 11/13+. This not fun right now. It continues to make the EPS would like a genius.
 
GaWx said:
This 18Z GEFS wasn't that good. It backtracked some more and is the warmest of the least few 11/13+. This not fun right now. It continues to make the EPS would like a genius.
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Just brutal. I like Jon’s suggestion...don’t look at models until Jan 15th then see how things look. Even in our coldest winters we would get 1 or 2 10 day warm up. So you would think we could flip that, next 60 days, maybe get 2 7-10 cold spells.
 
I would not bet against the EPS. As mentioned everything seems to be trending towards them. Best rule of thumb is to go with the EPS that way you won’t be disappointed. Warmer for now is and will continue to win out for the foreseeable future.


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whatalife said:
I would not bet against the EPS. As mentioned everything seems to be trending towards them. Best rule of thumb is to go with the EPS that way you won’t be disappointed. Warmer for now is and will continue to win out for the foreseeable future.


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The best rule of thumb is actually to go for any model that doesnt show what you want. Ive seen them all fail to what shows misery.
 
Arcc said:
The best rule of thumb is actually to go for any model that doesnt show what you want. Ive seen them all fail to what shows misery.
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Great point. And to go a step further, just imagine in your head the type of weather you hate the most and that will verify at least 95% of the time
 
whatalife said:
I would not bet against the EPS. As mentioned everything seems to be trending towards them. Best rule of thumb is to go with the EPS that way you won’t be disappointed. Warmer for now is and will continue to win out for the foreseeable future.


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I only bet against it when it hasn’t been doing that great. EPS usually seems to get a pass, and usually rightfully so as it’s the best..but sometimes I wonder people take the ensemble as gospel or don’t question it enough, which I advise against.

Here’s a recent example of it blowing a 10 day forecast, especially over the United States.

10-day forecast

d8bc4fedb94dffad65ac948faff94740.jpg


Latest forecast

4ac01a348ac1abe79ddb61ab29efad7c.jpg



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Jon said:
I only bet against it when it hasn’t been doing that great. EPS usually seems to get a pass, and usually rightfully so as it’s the best..but sometimes I wonder people take the ensemble as gospel or don’t question it enough, which I advise against.

Here’s a recent example of it blowing a 10 day forecast, especially over the United States.

10-day forecast

d8bc4fedb94dffad65ac948faff94740.jpg


Latest forecast

4ac01a348ac1abe79ddb61ab29efad7c.jpg



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I’ll still take my chances leaning towards the EPS. I’ll die fewer times doing so. The reality is that all models have been all over the place. AND yes people should be careful not to take the ensemble as gospel truth.


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At this point, I feel like there is zero point in living and dying by the models. They aren't exact science and they rarely are accurate outside of the short term window aside from picking up on "ideas" that have no definite solution until the short term. Living in the south, we have to realize that winter and snow are highly dependent on getting all the variables in our favor at the right moment in unison with one another. While I feel confident as an enthusiast that these will work out for some of us somewhere before winter ends, until that happens, I am happy with what is given to us. All we can honestly do is keep peeking at what is shown and wait for that moment where something pops and give us something to at least track because just because it's going to be in the 60s this week for most, that isn't the end all for winter. It's the south.. we do this every year for the most part. Let's just keep pushing forward and eventually we'll get something to track... even if it doesn't plow through our backyard directly with snow... it will for someone! :) At any rate, I am tired of all this dang rain!!! If it's going to be warm, let's get some sunshine with it at least you know!? lol.
 
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