Kylo
Member
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Why are you discounting the 20-21st system especially for your area
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Everyone has their own personal preference, but personally we're evolving into precisely the kind of pattern I want to have at this time of the year. Having a nice North Pacific ridge to seed our backyard with the coldest air in the entire northern hemisphere from Siberia at or near the peak of our snow climo at the tail end of January & early February, a huge vortex over south-central Canada to suppress and shear the southern stream waves that will be more frequent due to the ongoing El Nino and subseasonal forcing is fantastic. This the type of large-scale recipe that's often most readily capable of generating beautiful southern sliders that affect virtually the entire southernwx board. I could honestly care less what individual storms look like on specific operational runs this far in advance, the pattern is what actually matters & I seriously love what I'm seeing.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Why are you discounting the 20-21st system especially for your area
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Maybe it is better chance than I thought. Just sounded like everyone was writing off the 20th and looking further down the road. The mean looks good there, but the control is meh.
gawxnative
Member
Plus, this past weekend gave a pretty decent snow pack to the north to lessen any modification to temps, should it maintain with the dry week ahead
Kylo , Webb, 1300m , Jon and others have given ample reason over the last 48 hours as to why you should keep an eye on that system . They have also been screaming from the mountain tops that we will see different looks on the OP runs .
You have to learn to weed out the trolls that react negatively to every single run that does not give them a foot and take them below zero . We have between 3-5 on this board . If you don’t know who they are PM me and I’ll send you the list .
It will benefit you if you listen to those that know what the hell they are talking about vs buying into what the trolls put and somehow believing everything is failing
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It's definitely my second favorite. I'll admit it - I still feel robbed from the 12/26/2010 system. A phase 6 hours earlier and RDU is looking at 20"+ of snow again and I want another shot at it with a strong west-based negative NAO. But I actually think the pattern we're progressing into -- where a major overrunning event is the most likely storm type -- while it reduces that small opportunity for deformation band insaneness, widely increases the coverage of significant to even major accumulating snow given this juiced up southern stream. I still wholeheartedly believe RDU has another 6"+ opportunity in the cards over the next 1.5 months, and many others do too.
The 18Z FV3 is the 2nd in a row that doesn’t go off the deep end with historic extreme cold in the SE US after two extremely cold runs for late month. This one has a rare far southern GOM to S FL very weak low that is capable of producing snow very deep in the SE and actually does on this run 1/26-7. This is the one whatalife posted.
Weather forum user's guide first two paragraphs
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Absolutely, I also personally felt robbed with the Dec 2010 storm especially considering I wasn't even in NC at the time to experience it & it's the largest storm to hit my part of NC since I've been a resident here, so it still hurts to say the least.
Exactly, Charlotte usually gets the shaft with coastal cyclones as it is & I've already accepted my fate that there's probably going to be mixed precipitation types at some point in almost any setup here, so a nice overrunning/anafront or Miller B that usually is characterized by front-end thumping of snow flipping to ice is perfectly ok by me.
Raleigh & points north are honestly playing with house money the rest of the winter and I really hope you get another 6+ event. This winter is just one big dog away from being in the same conversation as some of the legendary winters in the early-mid 20th century in NC as a whole. Bring it on.
Stormlover
Member
This finally changed drastically, after showing warm for so long...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's a preliminary map of the ice storm that struck NC late yesterday and early this morning merging data from NWS Local Storm Reports, CoCoRaHS, mPING, & person communication. For some parts of western NC, this is their 3rd significant ice storm of the winter & we're not even halfway thru our seasonal climo yet.
Why are you discounting the 20-21st system especially for your area
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Oh how I like that look. So many looking way to far ahead.
I vote that surface maps beyond 192hrs are considered banter. That will stop most of it right there.
Warning long post lol.
I will say I love where this pattern is heading. As countless people have posted already on here, the indices are looking much better. SOI is still diving negative and signs of life from the NAO and PNA and EPO are encouraging. That said:
OP runs and even ENS are going to be flipping and flopping all over the place next 1-6 weeks or so. Trolls go away, no need for that crap on here. This is a place to learn and gain knowledge about the weather. With all that being said the biggest reason why I want to post this is the European is still showing the possibility of something for this upcoming weekend. The trends to me show that, if it continues it’s not that far off from producing something Wintry in the Southeast. I like the slower look of the SW shortwave, and also the splitting of the northern stream. Hopefully the weak ridging will go away with time. Either way, to me there is some potential for the weekend system and TONS of potential the next 8 weeks.
Here is the euro runs all centered on Sunday at 12Z
I will say I love where this pattern is heading. As countless people have posted already on here, the indices are looking much better. SOI is still diving negative and signs of life from the NAO and PNA and EPO are encouraging. That said:
OP runs and even ENS are going to be flipping and flopping all over the place next 1-6 weeks or so. Trolls go away, no need for that crap on here. This is a place to learn and gain knowledge about the weather. With all that being said the biggest reason why I want to post this is the European is still showing the possibility of something for this upcoming weekend. The trends to me show that, if it continues it’s not that far off from producing something Wintry in the Southeast. I like the slower look of the SW shortwave, and also the splitting of the northern stream. Hopefully the weak ridging will go away with time. Either way, to me there is some potential for the weekend system and TONS of potential the next 8 weeks.
Here is the euro runs all centered on Sunday at 12Z
Kylo
Member
This day 4 has this innocuous wave that brings some light rain/snow to the east on day 4...does seem to be helping lower heights in the east for the day 7-8 potential. Any little bit will help.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The CPC has sub-zero wind chill probability graphics to corroborate their temperature outlooks & interestingly they're forecasting a near or above 50% chance for sub zero wind chills along & north of the I-40 corridor. This is at least 3-4x higher than the long-term climatology. Yowza
EURO trends from the last 4 12z runs centered on 12z sat
Is it moving closer to interacting with northern stream?
I think trending away from interacting that much. We shall see