After looking at the pressure patterns over the SOI region (Darwin and Tahiti) it appears we should see some consecutive days of NEG values if the models are right in what its showing.
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Storm5
Member
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Marvelous March! Good call
The 12Z GEFS is suggesting to me that it is continuing to slowly give in due to cold bias. It looks great in the longterm but keeps slowly warming before. Until the EPS changes significantly, I'm not going to take the much colder than EPS GEFS runs too seriously. Don't want to be dissappointed yet again.
Storm5
Member
12z gefs
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Its trying to get there. EPS is slowly getting there as well.
whatalife
Moderator
12z gefs
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The winter that wasn’t is starting to become clearer
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PV popping in the LR on the FV3
Don’t get too excited though. We still roast like a pig on the 4th
Don’t get too excited though. We still roast like a pig on the 4th
ATLwxfan
Member
Use this break in the rain to ready the flowerbeds and load up on the Flonase.
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Brent
Member
then Amazing April!
SnowNiner
Member
Well, lol, seems like he's saying January is a big bust. But an understandable one. I don't think he meant that things will definitely get better, although I think he's implied that with other tweets. If you stare at his tweets long enough they start to blend to form a picture of a unicorn.
Kylo
Member
Well, lol, seems like he's saying January is a big bust. But an understandable one. I don't think he meant that things will definitely get better, although I think he's implied that with other tweets. If you stare at his tweets long enough they start to blend to form a picture of a unicorn.
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That’s how I read it too. January is toast. I guess he is sympathetic to the people that went cold because he understands why they did.
It’s not a winter isn’t over tweet thread.
But none before Failing February..And down the road a bit, late but not denied, Sloshing September
Honestly, I'm not really sure what Anthony M ("HM") is saying some of the time. It is almost as if he's sometimes talking in coded language that I can't decipher. If I were a pro-met, I'd probably be able to follow him much better .He's often the polar opposite of someone like JB, who usually types in a way that is relatively easy to follow even if he's often overhyping/wrong.
I don’t get how you can say “there were equal chances of either outcome happening” when it was always going to be either A or B. It was either going to happen this way or that way. The answers were out there and most got it wrong to this point. The weather can be predicted better than it is. In our lifetime we will see big time changes and tracking winter weather won’t be near as exciting as it once was. They will say “our supercomputer shows one chance at snow 24 days from now” and that will be itWell, lol, seems like he's saying January is a big bust. But an understandable one. I don't think he meant that things will definitely get better, although I think he's implied that with other tweets. If you stare at his tweets long enough they start to blend to form a picture of a unicorn.
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From Radiant mets this morning: They don't play around. They don't hype cold at all. I find them to be about as objective as any mets.
"In light of major warm changes for the first half of January that have taken place in the last week, we are updating our current monthly outlook to better reflect the much warmer pattern taking shape. Our 1-20 Day forecast (Jan 2-21) yields just 525.1 GWHDDs, which would be the 4th-warmest Jan 2-21 period on record. However, forecast confidence does falter in the 11-15 Day as models diverge with the favored ECMWF supporting a continued warm pattern while the GFS Ensemble shows more of a -EPO/-NAO pattern which would mark a transition to a colder regime. We do expect a colder transition to eventually occur, but more likely holding off until the final third of the month. A colder final third of January has support from the Euro weekly model which shows ridging building into Alaska as well as the North Atlantic, a pattern that also has support from stratospheric analogs for the latter half of January. That said, due to the very warm first 2/3 of the month we are lowering January’s GWHDD forecast to 880, which would be the 10th warmest January since 1950."
"In light of major warm changes for the first half of January that have taken place in the last week, we are updating our current monthly outlook to better reflect the much warmer pattern taking shape. Our 1-20 Day forecast (Jan 2-21) yields just 525.1 GWHDDs, which would be the 4th-warmest Jan 2-21 period on record. However, forecast confidence does falter in the 11-15 Day as models diverge with the favored ECMWF supporting a continued warm pattern while the GFS Ensemble shows more of a -EPO/-NAO pattern which would mark a transition to a colder regime. We do expect a colder transition to eventually occur, but more likely holding off until the final third of the month. A colder final third of January has support from the Euro weekly model which shows ridging building into Alaska as well as the North Atlantic, a pattern that also has support from stratospheric analogs for the latter half of January. That said, due to the very warm first 2/3 of the month we are lowering January’s GWHDD forecast to 880, which would be the 10th warmest January since 1950."
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I don't mean this as a slight to anyone, but I don't know why people who post in a public forum for the intent of public consumption don't try to articulate their point in a manner that is easily understood. I get the value in being very very very very very very smart. But it seems like you'd also want to be understood well and place as much value on developing communication skills as academic ones. The exception would be if you are communicating in an academic forum. But I digress.
Anyway, we can't really say that January is toast. I think we can safely say that about half of it is. But what the second half holds, remains to be seen. And there certainly have been a few signals that have developed over the past couple of days that should inspire a bit of optimism. Hopefully, that will continue.
Anyway, we can't really say that January is toast. I think we can safely say that about half of it is. But what the second half holds, remains to be seen. And there certainly have been a few signals that have developed over the past couple of days that should inspire a bit of optimism. Hopefully, that will continue.
Most analogs to this winter would have suggested a stronger back half. We're all probably pretty much in agreement there. But I think at the point in time he was talking about, we had a better than average shot of taking the colder fork in the road. Unfortunately, the higher percentage play of warming up won out.
One day, we'll probably have much better simulations of the atmosphere, like you suggest. We'll probably also have some geoengineering/weather modification techniques that can be brought to bear. But it'll be a while yet. In the meantime, we'll have to continue to debate about the EPS vs. GEFS vs. Analogs vs. Antilogs, etc. I do miss how we used to get more surprises than we get now, though.
Storm5
Member
To bad the FV3 is garbage . But that is nice to look at
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