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Pattern Jammin' January

Sleet City USA said:
We all still "all in" on the 20th-25th? I fear that may have been an overreaction, maybe 18z GFS will prove otherwise.
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Yes and no. The system around the 23rd is probably a strong cutter but it's most likely the last piece in transitioning us to the supportive pattern. By D10 the pacific ridge is building the pv is being drawn south, and the AO is going or is negative. This cutter should likely bomb out and help to raise heights out front and give us a better NAO look. This as a whole sets us up around and after 1/25 with a pattern much more supportive for us.


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That 1-20 system looks almost exactly like this last system. Very strong high but not in the best position


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Gfs is a model of consistency lol
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SD said:
Yes and no. The system around the 23rd is probably a strong cutter but it's most likely the last piece in transitioning us to the supportive pattern. By D10 the pacific ridge is building the pv is being drawn south, and the AO is going or is negative. This cutter should likely bomb out and help to raise heights out front and give us a better NAO look. This as a whole sets us up around and after 1/25 with a pattern much more supportive for us.


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I am getting a little worried we are kicking the can down the road a bit. First we were looking at a couple of systems between the 20th and 25th, and now we are looking past the 25th, which is a long way to go when it comes to weather.
 
I thought the 20th was that bomb cutter that was supposed to usher in a pattern change, but it's starting to look like it won't be.

That ULL wasn't there until this recent set of runs but it might work, if it kicks.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I am getting a little worried we are kicking the can down the road a bit. First we were looking at a couple of systems between the 20th and 25th, and now we are looking past the 25th, which is a long way to go when it comes to weather.
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My bit of a thought though is remember that in winter systems the models show thing "way out" then will "lose them" 7-10 days out only to "find them" again 5 days out. Several times, IMO that has led to some of the better systems..
 
Brick Tamland said:
I am getting a little worried we are kicking the can down the road a bit. First we were looking at a couple of systems between the 20th and 25th, and now we are looking past the 25th, which is a long way to go when it comes to weather.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I would consider 3-5 days really kicking the can, its not like we are saying by early February we will be better. The 20th and 23rd systems are also worth keeping an eye on, I just believe they are more likely to end up to our NW.
 
1300m said:
A little more of this and we might have something with the 1/20 system.

View attachment 10963
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Absolutely, we’re just a couple steps away from the classic southern US overrunning/elongated anafront type setup for the storm on the 20th. Even if this falls flat on its face I think we’ll get multiple looks with a very similar pattern the next 2-3 weeks & potentially beyond. Very 2013-14/2014-15 esque.
 
GFS with another crap sandwich at 300. Gets short lived 60’s east of the mountains after this pushes through. I don’t know how much longer I can kick the can. My feet hurt809D56F7-69AA-4775-BCB7-A79AFEA8E359.png
 
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