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Pattern Jammin' January

For the last two days, most of the fantasy storms have consisted of cold chasing moisture events... which work more so for LA through AL
 
Some GEFS members still show something for 1/20 but it is not as good as the 6z was.

Now on to the 23rd-25th time period.
 
If the ridge is not a strong as advertised (588dm), it could also serve to keep storms from being too suppressed with the arctic air intrusion. It doesn't work out that way too often but has helped in the past. Just my .02.
 
If you think winter wx is a sure thing with the pattern we’re ”entering” Grit on the other board reminded me of 94’..two major arctic outbreaks with a big rainstorm wedged in between..even when we’re not threading the needle, we’re threading the needle
 
Pretty much all gefs ensembles have some sort of winter weather after the 20th in the southeast, really good pattern coming up
 
The good news is the GEFS looked a little more favorable than the GFS for that second system on the 23/24. No ridge popping like the op. Room for improvement B7B4A6B7-89FF-490F-87D0-B47EB7EB4511.png
 
Ensembles look cold in the long range, but the mjo guidance looks pretty certain to bring us back through the warm phases (lower amplitude than last time). SSW starting to work to give us high latitude blocking?


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Good lord this pattern is going to drive you guys insane. Stay the course and we will get there. There are so many different short waves and orientations/amplitudes of key features that big run to run swings are to be expected. Follow where the ensembles are going and the ops will pin down the details as we get closer in time

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SnowNiner said:
Ensembles look cold in the long range, but the mjo guidance looks pretty certain to bring us back through the warm phases (lower amplitude than last time). SSW starting to work to give us high latitude blocking?


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Just curious, doesn't it seem we move trough COD quickly into 4 but really fast back to 7 (end of month)? What are the implications down the road into Feb?
 
SnowNiner said:
Ensembles look cold in the long range, but the mjo guidance looks pretty certain to bring us back through the warm phases (lower amplitude than last time). SSW starting to work to give us high latitude blocking?


View attachment 10935
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Should be a quick transit and may not have the same effect it did before

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My goodness the fv3 is insane, constant threats of winter storms after the 20th for parts of the SE, and Some folks are freaking out over a model run, bottom line this is a pattern that can’t get much better considering the way it has been these past years
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Just curious, doesn't it seem we move trough COD quickly into 4 but really fast back to 7 (end of month)? What are the implications down the road into Feb?
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Each day is a plot point there, so it looks like it would get back to the colder phases by end of January (phase 8). Hopefully it gets there and it dies out....per Larry's studies.
 
SD said:
Good lord this pattern is going to drive you guys insane. Stay the course and we will get there. There are so many different short waves and orientations/amplitudes of key features that big run to run swings are to be expected. Follow where the ensembles are going and the ops will pin down the details as we get closer in time

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Thank you for this.
 
Only thing we know for sure. Is it gets cold after the 20th. With a increased chance of snow. I still don’t think the models have a clue on this. Gfs continues to show cold chasing moisture. Fv3 shows potential especially the 28th looks like cold air already in place. But things will change again later today no doubt


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Will Rossman said:
12Z FV3 gfs showing unmitigated cold for the entire SE after 1/20

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The 12Z FV3 is cold dominated but actually not as unrelenting extreme cold as the extreme stupid cold of the 0Z and 6Z runs. This run has more breaks, which probably more desirable for most here since most are more interested in snow than extreme cold (Jon and others notwithstanding).
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
My goodness the fv3 is insane, constant threats of winter storms after the 20th for parts of the SE, and Some folks are freaking out over a model run, bottom line this is a pattern that can’t get much better considering the way it has been these past years
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Welcome to the board formerly known as TalkWeather/Weenieville. We’re a lively bunch, especially when the models steal our lunch money IE fantasy snow smash jobs.

We’re glad you’ve found us.

All joking aside, this is an excellent post. It’s hard for southern snow lovers to ask for a better look than this. Yeah, the cold air always modifies from the -6F model run readings, but the potential is still there. Trailing effect of the SSW events? Hell, I dunno, but it’s gonna be fun.


Keep Pounding btw
 
SD said:
Good lord this pattern is going to drive you guys insane. Stay the course and we will get there. There are so many different short waves and orientations/amplitudes of key features that big run to run swings are to be expected. Follow where the ensembles are going and the ops will pin down the details as we get closer in time

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Its understandable. JAN 15 is the halfway mark of met winter. 6 weeks down and 6 to go. We usually start hitting the panic button if the obs arent all carrying a inside 7 day threat this time of year. Luckily for some of us lucky few we have house money to play with. But you hit nail on head. Atleast we know with very high confidence we got a almost holy grail pattern staring us in the face after jan 20. Need a cold press to come gang busters and stay locked down. No WAR
 
NCSNOW said:
Its understandable. JAN 15 is the halfway mark of met winter. 6 weeks down and 6 to go. We usually start hitting the panic button if the obs arent all carrying a inside 7 day threat this time of year. Luckily for some of us lucky few we have house money to play with. But you hit nail on head. Atleast we know with very high confidence we got a almost holy grail pattern staring us in the face after jan 20. Need a cokd press to come gang busters and stay locked down. No WAR
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Fab February of 2015 says hi
 
Euro has all kinds over energy towards the 23rd-25th. With more diving SE into the PNW.
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