Kylo
Member
I agree, that has happened before, and I also agree that 3 to 5 days is not a long time. But I meant from now to the 25th is a long time when it comes to weather. Maybe I am being greedy, but we were liking at three possible systems between the 20th and 25th, and now it looks like we are looking more at just the 25th. Maybe there is so much going on that week and so many possibilities that the models are going to be going back and forth like crazy until then.
Why are you discounting the 20-21st system especially for your area
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Plus, this past weekend gave a pretty decent snow pack to the north to lessen any modification to temps, should it maintain with the dry week aheadEveryone has their own personal preference, but personally we're evolving into precisely the kind of pattern I want to have at this time of the year. Having a nice North Pacific ridge to seed our backyard with the coldest air in the entire northern hemisphere from Siberia at or near the peak of our snow climo at the tail end of January & early February, a huge vortex over south-central Canada to suppress and shear the southern stream waves that will be more frequent due to the ongoing El Nino and subseasonal forcing is fantastic. This the type of large-scale recipe that's often most readily capable of generating beautiful southern sliders that affect virtually the entire southernwx board.
Maybe it is better chance than I thought. Just sounded like everyone was writing off the 20th and looking further down the road. The mean looks good there, but the control is meh.
It's definitely my second favorite. I'll admit it - I still feel robbed from the 12/26/2010 system. A phase 6 hours earlier and RDU is looking at 20"+ of snow again and I want another shot at it with a strong west-based negative NAO. But I actually think the pattern we're progressing into -- where a major overrunning event is the most likely storm type -- while it reduces that small opportunity for deformation band insaneness, widely increases the coverage of significant to even major accumulating snow given this juiced up southern stream. I still wholeheartedly believe RDU has another 6"+ opportunity in the cards over the next 1.5 months, and many others do too.Everyone has their own personal preference, but personally we're evolving into precisely the kind of pattern I want to have at this time of the year. Having a nice North Pacific ridge to seed our backyard with the coldest air in the entire northern hemisphere from Siberia at or near the peak of our snow climo at the tail end of January & early February, a huge vortex over south-central Canada to suppress and shear the southern stream waves that will be more frequent due to the ongoing El Nino and subseasonal forcing is fantastic. This the type of large-scale recipe that's often most readily capable of generating beautiful southern sliders that affect virtually the entire southernwx board. I could honestly care less what individual storms look like on specific operational runs this far in advance, the pattern is what actually matters & I seriously love what I'm seeing.
Weather forum user's guide first two paragraphsKylo , Webb, 1300m , Jon and others have given ample reason over the last 48 hours as to why you should keep an eye on that system . They have also been screaming from the mountain tops that we will see different looks on the OP runs .
You have to learn to weed out the trolls that react negatively to every single run that does not give them a foot and take them below zero . We have between 3-5 on this board . If you don’t know who they are PM me and I’ll send you the list .
It will benefit you if you listen to those that know what the hell they are talking about vs buying into what the trolls put and somehow believing everything is failing
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Absolutely, I also personally felt robbed with the Dec 2010 storm especially considering I wasn't even in NC at the time to experience it & it's the largest storm to hit my part of NC since I've been a resident here, so it still hurts to say the least.It's definitely my second favorite. I'll admit it - I still feel robbed from the 12/26/2010 system. A phase 6 hours earlier and RDU is looking at 20"+ of snow again and I want another shot at it with a strong west-based negative NAO. But I actually think the pattern we're progressing into -- where a major overrunning event is the most likely storm type -- while it reduces that small opportunity for deformation band insaneness, widely increases the coverage of significant to even major accumulating snow given this juiced up southern stream. I still wholeheartedly believe RDU has another 6"+ opportunity in the cards over the next 1.5 months, and many others do too.
Why are you discounting the 20-21st system especially for your area
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Kylo , Webb, 1300m , Jon and others have given ample reason over the last 48 hours as to why you should keep an eye on that system . They have also been screaming from the mountain tops that we will see different looks on the OP runs .
You have to learn to weed out the trolls that react negatively to every single run that does not give them a foot and take them below zero . We have between 3-5 on this board . If you don’t know who they are PM me and I’ll send you the list .
It will benefit you if you listen to those that know what the hell they are talking about vs buying into what the trolls put and somehow believing everything is failing
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Is it moving closer to interacting with northern stream?EURO trends from the last 4 12z runs centered on 12z sat
View attachment 10996
I think trending away from interacting that much. We shall seeIs it moving closer to interacting with northern stream?