• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

I do admit it’s depressing seeing little change in the EPS, although it does look slightly improved in the extended. I probably need to heed my own advice and step away.

But I won’t, and as a Bonus here’s the always dependable CFSv2 maps...
1b1cf772cf6365255b99c306b572a386.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I honestly don’t want see another El Niño for while ... most them way over rated ... assuming it’s foing be cold with plenty moisture from the southern jet... well southern jet is not the problem ... like mentioned. It’s the pacific ... just over whelming other things It’s preventing to develop much of a ridge out west ... ... not sure the mjo will even help much in the good phases when and if it gets there..
 
NoSnowATL said:
It’s cold just not on our side. I’m sure Webb and 1300 will call us out but I think we need to just hope for 1-2 weeks. This winter will definitely be a learning tool for future winters. I’ve learn more this winter then ever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I've relearned we don't know squat. Relearn it every year.
 
He basically said no for now but if a couple of things happen that look like they might happen, things might get better. And remember what I was asking about the mjo getting into the better phases and it not mattering? He basically talked about that too.
 
So the problem this year with a modoki nino, low solar, -QBO, PDO, etc is.......too much storminess in Indonesia. :rolleyes:. It's always something isn't it? I'm getting to the point where I'm going to punt January. Even the GEFS although not terrible way out, is not cold. It's going to be a while I'm afraid.

I still think February has a chance to be gold if we can get the effects of the SSW to propagate down. Not gonna bet on it though. Well maybe there's something to Brick's forecast....NC got it's storm in December, and we only get one.
 
NoSnowATL said:
It’s cold just not on our side. I’m sure Webb and 1300 will call us out but I think we need to just hope for 1-2 weeks. This winter will definitely be a learning tool for future winters. I’ve learn more this winter then ever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Arcc said:
I've relearned we don't know squat. Relearn it every year.
Click to expand...

All the talk about great patterns and a great winter for snow lovers always sucks me back in, but I know better and should stick to my mantra regarding winters around here. It doesn't matter what the long range outlook says, what the indicies show, and what the pattern looks like. Winter is just going to do what it is going to do here. The models can show potential, but what actually happens with an actual threat is anyone's guess. We saw that with the early December storm, and we have seen it time and time again. I should be happy to have gotten in on that storm, and not expect anything else this winter, simply because we rarely get more than one big storm a winter, and if we get a big one we usually don't get anything else worth while.
 
Brick Tamland said:
All the talk about great patterns and a great winter for snow lovers always sucks me back in, but I know better and should stick to my mantra regarding winters around here. It doesn't matter what the long range outlook says, what the indicies show, and what the pattern looks like. Winter is just going to do what it is going to do here. The models can show potential, but what actually happens with an actual threat is anyone's guess. We saw that with the early December storm, and we have seen it time and time again. I should be happy to have gotten in on that storm, and not expect anything else this winter, simply because we rarely get more than one big storm a winter, and if we get a big one we usually don't get anything else worth while.
Click to expand...
Yeah. And you can thank the wedge effect on that storm ... same system for us here was just s plain cold rain ...
 
Arcc said:
I know one thing, our seasonal guidance is atrocious worldwide.
Click to expand...
Pretty much. Keep seeing decent patterns show up in the seasonals, and so far, there's not a lot to show for it.
 
Sudden stratospheric warming events usually cool the tropopause and equatorial stratosphere the most & sometimes only over the warmpool region of the Indian Ocean & West Pacific. As HM has talked about last night, it's really the narrow "z-cell sandwich" we currently have that's a major deterrent for us getting cold already and having a -EPO because there's virtually nowhere for the sub-polar Aleutian low to go being stuck between an expansive Hadley Cell from Indian-West Pacific convection and a decaying polar vortex to the north.

This actually gets to the heart of why SSWEs are more efficient at delivering cold air to us in El Ninos because ENSO is capable of interfering with the enhanced convection that's largely created only over the warm pool during the SSWE. When convection occurs over the Indian Ocean & West Pacific as it does more frequently in La Ninas, the Hadley Cells expand poleward and subtropical highs do the same, pushing the storm track globally further north and ultimately deterring high-latitude blocking that's needed in some way, shape, or form to afford us with legitimate opportunities for cold & snow. Once the aforementioned negative mountain torque event takes place over East Asia that I talked about several days ago, the Pacific jet will begin to retract in the following week or so (essentially a couple weeks from now) and it will be at that point where we may begin to try & tank the EPO.
 
Concurrently, we're seeing a massive westerly wind burst over the Equatorial Pacific thanks to this large MJO event predominated by equatorial Rossby Waves in the warm pool that are acting to seriously amp the +u wind anomalies near the dateline. This is going to trigger a substantial downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave which may have ramifications for ENSO all the way into 2019-20 as said Kelvin Wave will be entering the east-central Pacific by the time we reach the spring predictability barrier in March.

u.anom.30.5S-5N (7).gif
 
Per Radiant meteorologist just now, even though the MJO is predicted to go into the normally colder phases of 7-8, there is unusually warm water near Indonesia, which will cause the main convective forcing to continue to be from that area even when the MJO gets into 7-8. This Indonesian forcing is La Niña-like and phase 4-5like. The EPS maintains this dominant Indonesian convection, which would allow this La Niñaish/phase 4-5 pattern to continue. The poorly performing GEFS has been moving that Indonesian convection to a position that would mimic MJO phase 6. That’s why it has been colder than the EPS.
This explanation appears to agree with HM if I’m understanding HM correctly. Webb may also be in agreement with this to some extent though maybe he’ll comment on this.

Radiant feels E US warmth will continue to dominate through most of the 16-20 day period and that only after then it may turn colder.
 
Last edited:
Webberweather53 said:
Sudden stratospheric warming events usually cool the tropopause and equatorial stratosphere the most & sometimes only over the warmpool region of the Indian Ocean & West Pacific. As HM has talked about last night, it's really the narrow "z-cell sandwich" we currently have that's a major deterrent for us getting cold already and having a -EPO because there's virtually nowhere for the sub-polar Aleutian low to go being stuck between an expansive Hadley Cell from Indian-West Pacific convection and a decaying polar vortex to the north.

This actually gets to the heart of why SSWEs are more efficient at delivering cold air to us in El Ninos because ENSO is capable of interfering with the enhanced convection that's largely created only over the warm pool during the SSWE. When convection occurs over the Indian Ocean & West Pacific as it does more frequently in La Ninas, the Hadley Cells expand poleward and subtropical highs do the same, pushing the storm track globally further north and ultimately deterring high-latitude blocking that's needed in some way, shape, or form to afford us with legitimate opportunities for cold & snow. Once the aforementioned negative mountain torque event takes place over East Asia that I talked about several days ago, the Pacific jet will begin to retract in the following week or so (essentially a couple weeks from now) and it will be at that point where we may begin to try & tank the EPO.
Click to expand...

This make sense then...heads back over to the warm phases?

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
 
Unlike last year, when GEFS did very well with its record breaking forecast just off the chart of very strong phases 6-7 when it was still in phase 5 and the much weaker EPS did very poorly, this time the EPS appears to be doing better than GEFS with GEFS now MUCH weaker than it was while the EPS is somewhat stronger vs earlier being near and into the circle.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top