Maybe even SC and GA per this run.
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You couldn’t really ask for a better setup here at the Carolinas at the sfc this run
GeorgiaGirl
Member
My guess with this run is the energy will delay until that confluence moves and it'll run up the Apps based off this look:
But who knows if that's even the solution as the GFS doesn't know what it's doing with the energy.
But who knows if that's even the solution as the GFS doesn't know what it's doing with the energy.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
And that looks like the case, but it starts out wintry for the CAD areas.
Jessy89
Member
It’s snow to ice to rain in CaD areas of north and South Carolina
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Ikr just need low to shift about 100 miles south and it’s game on based on this run.
Storm5
Member
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Please be right
Storm5
Member
Lol the gfs is the new euro burying energy in the west
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
If only the SE ridge was weaker lol. There might not be much meteorological influence off of this thought but I want to think that energy grinds to a halt until the confluence in the NE moves because of the ridge.
just like Webber said, I just don’t see CLT areas getting a all snow event, obvious that there will be mixing, especially with the slight rigding to our east
Nobody wants to bullseye at this lead...but an even bigger issue is how the hell did it make it to that solution
Jessy89
Member
I’m very curious to see if Fv3 agrees with gfs.
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Storm5
Member
Cold wouldn’t be an issue if this verified
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Yeah the SE ridge looks to be a bit of a problem, not surprised tho ?
How about snow?Cold wouldn’t be an issue if this verified
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Storm5
Member
I don’t know I would call it the SER. The GFs is just rolling the ridge out west
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Storm5
Member
How about snow?
I know your not happy cause you didn’t get your four feet of modeled snow .....
I guess an active pattern with plenty of cold isn’t a good place to start
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
GEFS looks like a go for North TN/NC on 1/20. Whenever the weather.cod.edu website loads however, I'm very interested in seeing if there are some ensembles that look similar to the GFS.
D
Deleted member 527
Guest
Looking at the CMC is futile. Especially for the SER. Go with Esembles then Euro & Ukie.
Kylo
Member
Will definitely be an impressive event for Oh-V, MA and NE. With the pattern setting up it looks like it could repeat over these areas next couple of weeks.
SnowNiner
Member
If it looks like this at the end of January, I give up. lol. Thankfully it'll look completely different this evening.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I don't think the GEFS is delaying the energy at all, do see a few ULLs though.
There are a few members that provide wintry during the 23rd-25th period but many that are swing and misses.
There are a few members that provide wintry during the 23rd-25th period but many that are swing and misses.
D
Deleted member 527
Guest
Why is some looking at these op runs like they are gospel? These are going to change over and over. Look at positives. Cold air is over on our side. It is close by. Let’s focus on the storm this weekend. Which won’t be sampled until Thursday I think?
The GFS after 180hrs till about 300hrs is amazing. Sorry Carolina guys, I'll take that look the rest of the way. Big time phase and overrunning potential.
I like how the big AK ridge forces the jet underneath. That's how you load the pattern with storm chances. Unfortunately, there remains no semblance of blocking in the NAO region, which leads to storms that cut and highs that scoot out to the northeast up north. Could be a really good pattern for the midwest and NE. Hopefully, it keeps evolving.
Storm5
Member
Yeah I’d take that look and take my chances . If the modeled pattern is correct it isn’t one that will make everyone happy . Gonna depends on location for sure
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Jessy89
Member
Realistically the 20th system will bring the cold. Hopefully setting up for the system on the 23-25th. Hopefully with cold air in place
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whatalife
Moderator
Well there is this but who knows right now 
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Going back to the D10 storm we were discussing earlier, here is a scenario where things can come together more favorably, yet because my number one rule of thumb for winter storms is still broken, it doesn't work out. Look at the 500 mb chart:
The PV is still way too far north with no mechanism to suppress it south. However, a favorably timed and located shortwave over the south spawns a low pressure off the SE coast. It subsequently takes a very favorable track for SC, parts of GA, and most of NC. However, the mechanism to deliver cold air into the area, the high pressure zone to the north, is weak and too far away. And we end up with marginal cold that doesn't appear to be cold enough for most of the area for most of the storm. It's close, but it would be much better if we had strong high sitting near the Lakes or over the NE, which is hard to get with the main PV sitting over central Canada.
The PV is still way too far north with no mechanism to suppress it south. However, a favorably timed and located shortwave over the south spawns a low pressure off the SE coast. It subsequently takes a very favorable track for SC, parts of GA, and most of NC. However, the mechanism to deliver cold air into the area, the high pressure zone to the north, is weak and too far away. And we end up with marginal cold that doesn't appear to be cold enough for most of the area for most of the storm. It's close, but it would be much better if we had strong high sitting near the Lakes or over the NE, which is hard to get with the main PV sitting over central Canada.
I like this one a lot:
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Well I'll be dang. I'm looking a little closer at the FV3 now that Rain Cold said it, and that position of the LP, if I'm seeing it right would be climo favored way further south than what it's showing. Of course the PV isn't as south as it needs to be, of course it is...
FailV3 saves everybody with a clipper at 300hr then it was setting up for glory east of the mountains at the end of the run
This is a really good example of what we should be hoping to see eventually inside of 100 hours. From virtually 276-384, you get this:
To this:
I mean, that is a sustained and favorable winter pattern. The -NAO forces the PV south, which in turn suppresses the storm track south, and you have a nice ridge out west in a great location with a great orientation. If this comes anywhere close to reality, you will see many snowstorms start appearing on the models.
To this:
I mean, that is a sustained and favorable winter pattern. The -NAO forces the PV south, which in turn suppresses the storm track south, and you have a nice ridge out west in a great location with a great orientation. If this comes anywhere close to reality, you will see many snowstorms start appearing on the models.
Great googly moogly:
NoSnowATL
Member
And this is when that system is coming north out of the GOM. She might be THE ONE( sorry if this is banter).
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The problem is it keeps getting pushed back further and further down the road. We were looking at multiple storm threats the week of the 20th last week. Now we're saying by the end of the month. That's two weeks away.
The whole FV3 run is awesome.
Nice increase of snow for western side of southeast.
12z GEFS mean
12z GEFS mean