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Pattern Jammin' January

Jon said:
As far as I can see they’re very similar Day 8 and Day 10, fractional differences do it’s pretty negligible.

Day 8
GFS 0.669
FV3 0.666

Day 10 the scores are
GFS 0.494
FV3 0.496


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Yeah that’s not too far apart
bbe4f3ec9aab7df09afe9d5680f63c2f.jpg



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Rain Cold said:
Equal and opposite reaction. You get a trough out west, you get a tendency for ridging in the east. Also, you’re seeing a broad lower height/pressure zone across Canada, so you get a ridge respond farther south. Now what’s driving such a bad configuration? I’m not sure we have a consolidated answer. Seems to be a combination of unfavorable things.
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... and a germ of a visual footnote ...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,586

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,605
 
Looks like we have a fairly solid storm signal in the southern stream coming into southern CA / northern Baja next weekend. Certainly encouraging to see the Euro suite pumping HP's out of central Canada, with building 500 heights over eastern Canada into the Davis Straight ahead of the system.
 
The OP models have a 1040-1050 HP dropping into the Midwest around day 9-10 and have been consistent with this feature for a few runs now. If this holds the next few days we will want to monitor this timeframe for a possible winter weather threat. As always it will depend on timing but some players are starting to come onto the field.
 
snowlover91 said:
The OP models have a 1040-1050 HP dropping into the Midwest around day 9-10 and have been consistent with this feature for a few runs now. If this holds the next few days we will want to monitor this timeframe for a possible winter weather threat. As always it will depend on timing but some players are starting to come onto the field.
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Yea I have noticed that too. Then the cold instead of diving on down it just slides off east. If we can have it push on in. We will have a threat for some of the southeast. Good times ahead.
 
GaWx said:
A bit of improvement on the EPS 11-15 for a change. Nothing like GEFS but improved vs earlier runs, Overall, 12Z runs' consensus is improved for 11-15.
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Yep. EPS is improved Day 15 and also you can see the trends for Day 13-14 looping the last 3 model runs. +PNA starting to develop earlier than advertised. These anomalies used to be below Hudson Bay.
6df5e1ae31d47ff0eb3ae5436fdfbef5.jpg



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Jon said:
Yep. EPS is improved Day 15 and also you can see the trends for Day 13-14 looping the last 3 model runs. +PNA starting to develop earlier than advertised. These anomalies used to be below Hudson Bay.
6df5e1ae31d47ff0eb3ae5436fdfbef5.jpg



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Much better and big change from previous runs. Stupid weathermodels site isnt updating, good thing it only costs $9/month.
 
Jon said:
Yep. EPS is improved Day 15 and also you can see the trends for Day 13-14 looping the last 3 model runs. +PNA starting to develop earlier than advertised. These anomalies used to be below Hudson Bay.
6df5e1ae31d47ff0eb3ae5436fdfbef5.jpg



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Click to expand...
The ECWMF trends further/longer into MJO Phase 8 and the EPS is improving. Almost seems like it's not a coincidence ;) If we can get that PV to trend further southeast like the GEFS/GEPS show at the end of their runs business will pick up in a big way.

JanENMJOphase8gt1500mb.gif
 
The unfortunate part is the euro brings the mjo right back into the phase 4, which isn't good later. Also, like HM said last night, hadley cell being expanded isn't good for cold.

Webber mentioned about the east asian mountain torque event. Do we think its just a temporary fix when it gets going?
 
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1300m said:
The ECWMF trends further/longer into MJO Phase 8 and the EPS is improving. Almost seems like it's not a coincidence ;) If we can get that PV to trend further southeast like the GEFS/GEPS show at the end of their runs business will pick up in a big way.

JanENMJOphase8gt1500mb.gif
Click to expand...
I agree on the eps and euro trending deeper into phase 8 and longer period as well. Like I said earlier today, my optimism is growing a little bit.
 
Interesting seeing the Hawaii ridge shift west/weaken over the past few EPS runs with today's being a moderate shift. Allows our Npac low to slide west. By end of run the ridge is almost absent. GEFS has a trough back towards Hawaii, little to far west.

EPStrends.gif14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height Anom 360 (1).png
 
Golf7575 said:
The unfortunate part is the euro brings the mjo right back into the phase 4, which isn't good later. Also, like HM said last night, hadley cell being expanded isn't good for cold.

Webber mentioned about the east asian mountain torque event. Do we think its just a temporary fix when it gets going?
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Welcome. To the forum golf 7575... let’s get this dead winter alive....
 
Golf7575 said:
Delta, do you think the soi is only dropping because mjo is moving to other phases?
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They work in tandem. As the westerlies move east and drive down the SOI and move the MJO eastward the better the pattern.
 
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