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Pattern Jammin' January

Does anyone know when the ensembles will start running off the FV3? I would guess that would begin after the GFS is retired. They'll probably be awesome in the LR, since the FV3 appears to be cold-biased.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is a really good example of what we should be hoping to see eventually inside of 100 hours. From virtually 276-384, you get this:

View attachment 11077

To this:

View attachment 11078

I mean, that is a sustained and favorable winter pattern. The -NAO forces the PV south, which in turn suppresses the storm track south, and you have a nice ridge out west in a great location with a great orientation. If this comes anywhere close to reality, you will see many snowstorms start appearing on the models.
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Was just looking at that. We're on the same page dude. Let's wish and hope it into reality cause if it's going to happen, it seems like this is our year. Ensembles and Weeklies are showing something similar. Hopefully the week 2 weeklies tonight will show something similar. If so, I think it's game on.

And the WAR is dwindling into nothing, allowing a true -NAO with negative heights over Nova Scotia/SE Canada for a 50/50 low. Pretty stuff. Man I hope it comes true.

1547490970928.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Does anyone know when the ensembles will start running off the FV3? I would guess that would begin after the GFS is retired. They'll probably be awesome in the LR, since the FV3 appears to be cold-biased.
Click to expand...

Not til at least early 2020, thank goodness. Yep, fake awesomeness coming up OMG lol.

Thanks goodness we'll always have the King and his ensembles to keep us grounded.
 
Euro so is trying for the weekend. Prob a rain to snow thing if at all. Other energy behind might have a shot
 
I'm going to go back through the last couple of pages and put some banter posts in the banter thread. If you don't see the comments here, check there. Not intending to offend anyone, just want to keep this one uncluttered as uncluttered as possible.
 
deltadog03 said:
Euro so is trying for the weekend. Prob a rain to snow thing if at all. Other energy behind might have a shot
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Not that it matters but this run is close for some in Tennessee and is a big hit for Arkansas
8d63a96bc9500a305207c00f3f0a5ca9.jpg
cfe85691c5412e4a7216bfe00b1eccf2.jpg




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Storm5 said:
Not that it matters but this run is close for some in Tennessee and is a big hit for Arkansas
8d63a96bc9500a305207c00f3f0a5ca9.jpg
cfe85691c5412e4a7216bfe00b1eccf2.jpg




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Nice!! I would argue that there should be even more precipitation over our states...that will be something to watch for now, but I love where the pattern is headed for sure.
 
GaWx said:
Is it my imagination or is that really stupid almost idiotic cold on the 12Z Euro on 1/21 in the SE?
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I was thinking the same thing. Those temps at 850 are going to be below freezing for most of FL. I don't have the surface maps, so I'm not sure about those but I expect them to be really cold. Not to mention those -15 or so 850s above your area.
ecmwf_T850_seus_8.png
 
I honestly couldn't draw up a better map than this OP run of the euro by D10...starts before that....IF****** this comes close to verifying...well the nation would go into the deep freeze and there will be more than 1 legit threat across the SE...
euro.png
 
The PV is still too far north for my liking at D10, and the western ridge is too far west, oriented NE to SW, allowing for lower heights in the western US. What we will want to see here in order to prevent that storm from cutting is for the Low over Pennsylvania to bomb out and act like a 50/50 low. That will lock in confluence over the NE, causing the high dropping into North Dakota to slide east into a favorable location to feed cold air into the SE. At the same time the low over the TX panhandle will be forced east.

That's what we need to root for here. Otherwise, it cuts or Miller Bs, under the influence of weak wedging. Anyway, analyzing a D10 storm is almost useless. At least this gives us something to watch for.


End.jpg
 
NCSNOW said:
This will be 4th day/afternoon in a row with sub 40 high at Greensboro.
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I don't think it is a coincidence that it has been the coldest since 1/10 when the MJO has been most favorable for SE cold (low amp 8 followed by into circle from left side). That's one reason I'm watching MJO forecasts closely and am hoping it gets back around to the left side and near or back inside the circle late month.
 
So far the transition in pattern has been from warm to one that is cooler with a warmup/cutter when a system moves through. The next phase of the pattern that we need to change is for blocking to establish in the right locations to suppress our storm track. Until that happens we will have to hope for either a PERFECTLY timed northern/southern wave or else we will continue seeing cutter after cutter. The snow that falls to our north will at least be helpful in preventing airmass modification if we do get a better setup down the line in late January or sometime in February.
 
Brick Tamland said:
So now the question is will it actually set in, or will we be looking further down the road again? Something needs to start showing up on the models. We were all excited for the week of the 20th with multiple threats possible, and now it seems we are looking past that to the end of the month for a better than normal pattern to set up for winter storms.
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From my understanding it’s the system on the 20th. That brings the cold and the storm right after that the 23-25th timeframe that should be a storm with cold already in place. At least that’s what I see when I look at the gfs


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Brick Tamland said:
So now the question is will it actually set in, or will we be looking further down the road again? Something needs to start showing up on the models. We were all excited for the week of the 20th with multiple threats possible, and now it seems we are looking past that to the end of the month for a better than normal pattern to set up for winter storms.
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I think it's a matter of if blocking sets up with the arctic low up in Canada. If we can get that, we probably will have a couple of weeks where we could see threats. After that, it would probably break down but not go to torch. If not, then this cold will last a few days and temps will swing up and down massively. Just what I think, not sure what will happen for sure.
 
Actually some of us are not looking past the 20th. Us in the mid south might actually score. The pattern is moving up.
 
Brick Tamland said:
So now the question is will it actually set in, or will we be looking further down the road again? Something needs to start showing up on the models. We were all excited for the week of the 20th with multiple threats possible, and now it seems we are looking past that to the end of the month for a better than normal pattern to set up for winter storms.
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That’s the thing though. They are “threats” and were “threats” until they end up hits or not. No one said they were sure things. The pattern is what’s important right now and we just have to wait for something to stick. A quarterback with a strong arm is always a “threat” to go deep. Doesn’t mean he will every time. Gotta wait for the right time to strike.
 
Kylo said:
And with that jet you can see why this looks so impressive.

View attachment 11091
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Nice to see the January 20th storm putting down a deep, fresh snowpack down thru the I-70/I-64 corridors for subsequent arctic air masses to run through and modify less quickly as they reach our neck of the woods.
 
1300m said:
Looking good. Did see a bunch of higher reports in Forsyth and Guilford (there are more but here's a good sample).

0450 AM FREEZING RAIN 2 NNE KERNERSVILLE 36.15N 80.06W
01/13/2019 E0.30 INCH FORSYTH NC 911 CALL CENTER

CORRECTS PREVIOUS FREEZING RAIN REPORT FROM
2 NNE KERNERSVILLE. TREE DOWN ON PINEY GROVE
ROAD IN KERNERSVILLE.

0256 AM FREEZING RAIN 1 SE WINSTON-SALEM 36.09N 80.25W
01/13/2019 E0.25 INCH FORSYTH NC 911 CALL CENTER

CORRECTS PREVIOUS FREEZING RAIN REPORT FROM
1 SE WINSTON-SALEM. A TREE WAS DOWN IN THE
ROADWAY AT 130 S GREEN ST IN DOWNTOWN
WINSTON-SALEM.

0354 AM FREEZING RAIN 4 N LEWISVILLE 36.14N 80.41W
01/13/2019 E0.20 INCH FORSYTH NC 911 CALL CENTER

CORRECTS PREVIOUS FREEZING RAIN REPORT FROM
4 N LEWISVILLE. A TREE WAS DOWN IN THE
ROADWAY ON THE 2400 BLOCK OF VIENNA - DOZIER
ROAD IN PFAFFTOWN.

0411 AM FREEZING RAIN 1 ENE RURAL HALL 36.24N 80.27W
01/13/2019 E0.25 INCH FORSYTH NC 911 CALL CENTER

CORRECTS PREVIOUS FREEZING RAIN REPORT FROM
1 ENE RURAL HALL. TREE DOWN ON CRESTBROOK
DRIVE IN RURAL HALL.

0743 AM FREEZING RAIN SUMMERFIELD 36.20N 79.90W
01/13/2019 E0.25 INCH GUILFORD NC PUBLIC

CORRECTS PREVIOUS FREEZING RAIN REPORT FROM
SUMMERFIELD. MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWN IN SUMMERFIELD.

0744 AM FREEZING RAIN 4 NNE COLFAX 36.18N 79.99W
01/13/2019 E0.25 INCH GUILFORD NC 911 CALL CENTER

CORRECTS PREVIOUS FREEZING RAIN REPORT FROM
4 NNE COLFAX. MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES
REPORTED DOWN IN OAK RIDGE.
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This should have fixed most of the kinks & I added a few more obs that came in late. I definitely thought at first glance the reports of 0.15 ish inches of ZR were a little low in Guilford & Forsyth but all the reports were like that so it was hard to ignore in the preliminary map.

January 12-13 2019 NC Snowmap.png
 
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