Pattern Jammin' January

[Arcc]

I would as well if it were under day 5 and not post day ten AND not the FV3


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Why do I get the feeling we have down graded based on some of the wonky 500mb looks on the FV3?

I had high hopes, but those are sunk at this point.

 

[Rain Cold]

It would also be crazy if it never got up to 85 all of next summer in ATL. But that won't happen. Neither will no freeze the rest of the winter. Everybody breath. It is obviously going to take AT LEAST a week or two longer than we expected/wanted for it to turn colder. And, next week may be warmer that we would desire, but the pattern will change. More winter weather will return. How harsh and how long it lasts will be subject for good discussion.

Oh come on now. Atlanta is in the DEEP south. Of course they will have temps above 85. But being so far south. cold is NEVER guaranteed.

With weather, ANYTHING can happen. Nothing ever surprises me anymore.

 

[Arcc]

GEFS came in much colder this run over the 0z run.

View attachment 9948

Not a great look, but not a bad look at 500mb with some pretty good positives and it is moving up in time. Now if we can get it under 200hrs as that is where it got last time before it poofed.

 

[Rain Cold]

Europe is gonna rock

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And so passeth another kitten.

I wonder how Europe has done relative to normal over each of the last 5 years or so in winter?

 

[Storm5]

Why do I get the feeling we have down graded based on some of the wonky 500mb looks on the FV3?

I had high hopes, but those are sunk at this point.

It was posted the other day that the GFs has better H5 scores vs the new FV3 post day 6 . I’ll see if I can find it


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[Flurry]

And so passeth another kitten.

I wonder how Europe has done relative to normal over each of the last 5 years or so in winter?

If I remember correctly, Europe has had some blockbuster Winters over the last several years...Don't know how it relates to their norm though...I would think they have "over-achieved"

 

[accu35]

Gfs and fv3 looks decent middle of the month, but don't worry, Charlie will end up saying something on my comment to make me feel dumb for saying that, LOL!!

 

[Storm5]

Gfs and fv3 looks decent middle of the month, but don't worry, Charlie will end up saying something on my comment to make me feel dumb for saying that, LOL!!

No one is making anyone feel dumb . People can believe what they want . That’s the whole point of the board


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[TheBatman]

Gfs and fv3 looks decent middle of the month, but don't worry, Charlie will end up saying something on my comment to make me feel dumb for saying that, LOL!!

Why would you say that??? It seems like to me you do a pretty good job at doing it yourself....burn!!!????j/k Sorry, I had too. I enjoy reading your comments..?

 

[deltadog03]

Another new look from the doc

 

[Metwannabe]

He basically said no for now but if a couple of things happen that look like they might happen, things might get better. And remember what I was asking about the mjo getting into the better phases and it not mattering? He basically talked about that too.

Are they really considered colder phases if it reaches those phases and it doesn't turn cold?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That ridge in the east just doesn’t fit with everything else going on at 500 even with that ridge out west not being in an ideal location. If someone wants to try and explain this please do it without mentioning the MJO thanks

 

[tennessee storm]

Are they really considered colder phases if it reaches those phases and it doesn't turn cold?

phases 8 1 2 ... not 100 percent guaranteed get cold ... but one thing certain... those phases present a more amped up pattern ....

 

[Metwannabe]

phases 8 1 2 ... not 100 percent guaranteed get cold ... but one thing certain... those phases present a more amped up pattern ....

Yeah, was more of a rhetorical I got caught up in the banter that shouldn't be in this thread moment and posted it. I know those phases are our cold phases and best chances for us, just seems this year is trying to defy odds a bit.... then again it's early and I'm in no way complaining or tossing in the towel

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 9949

That ridge in the east just doesn’t fit with everything else going on at 500 even with that ridge out west not being in an ideal location. If someone wants to try and explain this please do it without mentioning the MJO thanks

Equal and opposite reaction. You get a trough out west, you get a tendency for ridging in the east. Also, you’re seeing a broad lower height/pressure zone across Canada, so you get a ridge respond farther south. Now what’s driving such a bad configuration? I’m not sure we have a consolidated answer. Seems to be a combination of unfavorable things.

 

[Jon]

It was posted the other day that the GFs has better H5 scores vs the new FV3 post day 6 . I’ll see if I can find it


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As far as I can see they’re very similar Day 8 and Day 10, fractional differences do it’s pretty negligible.

Day 8
GFS 0.669
FV3 0.666

Day 10 the scores are
GFS 0.494
FV3 0.496


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[Rain Cold]

If I remember correctly, Europe has had some blockbuster Winters over the last several years...Don't know how it relates to their norm though...I would think they have "over-achieved"

That’s my recollection too.

 

[whatalife]

I am just a little intrigued for the 14th-16thish...GFS and FV3 have a system coming ashore about the same time. It also appears the Euro was ahead that way too. Guess it’s to bad we don’t have enough cold air around...

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[Kylo]

View attachment 9949

That ridge in the east just doesn’t fit with everything else going on at 500 even with that ridge out west not being in an ideal location. If someone wants to try and explain this please do it without mentioning the MJO thanks

It's better than the EPS...it wants to stick a trough in the same spot. This is the 0z run and previous runs showed the same. Maybe 12z changes.

 

[SASQUATCH]

As far as I can see they’re very similar Day 8 and Day 10, fractional differences do it’s pretty negligible.

Day 8
GFS 0.669
FV3 0.666

Day 10 the scores are
GFS 0.494
FV3 0.496


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Pretty sure FV3 is the Debuhl (Devil)!