Well, Columbia is certainly not seeing any snow. Lol
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I don’t think the LR can be totally believed because we are trying to finally see the MJO moving. To me until they figure out that, we are going to see highly volatile solutions.
SOI finally trying to drop
If this keeps up, it’s going to be nearly impossible to get good arctic air into a favorable position without some serious HP moderation. With the way guidance is looking atm, we are going to need some major help and good fortune from here on out I’m afraidOuch
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It’s currently 77 degrees at my current location and it feels amazing!
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I think he needs a new video after the 12z runs lol
https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-daily-update-555?full
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https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-daily-update-555?full
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I know a LOT of people bash him, but he is very good at what he does. With that said..... he is clearly rattled right now. He knows his forecast is in big trouble.
Jon
Member
I see a lot of frustration and some terrible modeling by most models for the 8-10 day and especially the 10-15 day time frame. They can’t be trusted and that’s 100% correct logic.
Now, how you interpret that is up for debate. Heat does largely win out most of the time, and a lot of models have a cold bias in general, but I’ll have to disagree on trusting a full on torch for the LR just because heat is more believable to the eye.
If the models were showing a spectacular pattern but have been all over the place, the same people will be yelling not to trust the 10-15 cold because the models are inconsistent. So why the double standard?
Also, CR don’t take this the wrong way. We go way back. Just seeing a lot of the same stuff on twitter too..calling out the optimistic folks. I don’t really get it.
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The mjo has started moving correct ???
pcbjr
Member
It has. We need a good MJO burst and a -SOI
Don’t get me wrong, I really like Joe. I just think it’s funny that his his forecast verification is hinging on the SSW. There was no talk of SSW when his WXBell forecast came out many months ago. Now it’s SSW or major forecast bust. Why before the what?
In fairness to him tho, every forecast I saw had a cold to very cold Jan for us.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I.e. pattern change.
That’s the light at end of the tunnel.
And that tells me nothing can honestly be trusted in the LR. Plus if the eps and euro are right we should see a smashing hit later in Jan from its progression of the MJO
whatalife
Moderator
Pushing pennies here but you have to start somewhere
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CFS is ideal for MJO
pcbjr
Member
------ Man, Now I'm going to the Circle K to buy a few lotto tickets ...
Pushing pennies here but you have to start somewhere
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