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Pattern Jammin' January

Poimen said:
I know this is out there in la-la land, but it matches with our LR expectations. Check out the developing -NAO and say hello to our little friend in the GOM:

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Yes sir. That's what I'm talking about. A real west base -NAO, with NO WAR! And surprise, surprise....there's a Miller A on the coast. We've to get a true -NAO pattern before the winter is over, please!!

It ain't happening that quick, but man I hope it shows up in week 4 like the weeklies show.

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Storm5 said:
For areas to the west we will gladly take that PV placement . I love the trough orientation for MBY that you posted above . It really depends on ones location when looking ahead in the LR and seeing the different looks. Certain looks would benefit some areas of the southeast while screwing others .

As nice as it looks I know it will look different on tonight’s runs. I think we will have a true idea of where we are headed by around the middle of next week say Wednesday


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It just needs to sink south a little. But for southern planes to you it’s what you would hope for. I think the OH-V looks like ground zero next couple of weeks.
 
SnowNiner said:
It's semantics probably but to me we're not in a true pattern change to colder than normal yet. Next week and a half we bounce to cool/warm back and forth. MLK is really the date GEFS locks in on as the true pattern change to colder than normal over the SE. You can see Canada literally open up and the cold flows in. Looks great. Not sure we want the PV in the center of Canada, need more blocking over the top to get it SE Canada.
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To me it’s pretty obvious the pattern is changing you can by day 5 Canada is flooded with cold air and by day 8 on the gefs it’s pouring down into the central part of the country . Pretty clear pattern change
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SnowNiner said:
Agreed. I think your -EPO pattern is a given honestly. I've said from day one that's probably going to be this winter's theme....persistence. What we've had in our cold patterns this year is what we've had for the last several winters, -EPO/+PNA/+ or neutral NAO.

The weeklies at week 4 have a true -NAO with not just ridging over greenland, but lower heights in SE Canada/Nova Scotia/West Atlantic. That's what I'd really like to get a hold of, but what I think is a mirage. The west coast ridging just does not want to leave. I think when we get rid of the WAR and get a true -NAO we get a real Miller A IMO.

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You need the west coast ridging with that look because you would be relying on trough orientation and the PV to keep things from cutting.

With the look on the FV3, the ridging can slide farther off the coast because you have a whopper of a -NAO. Take that away and storms will amp everytime.
 
Doc says, NC, how would you like another icestorm on 1/20?
And the one you're having this weekend would seem like tiddlywinks in comparison.
 
GaWx said:
Doc says, NC, how would you like another icestorm on 1/20?
And the one you're having this weekend would seem like tiddlywinks in comparison.
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Care to share any graphics or chime in on how far into SC it's showing?
 
GaWx said:
Doc says, NC, how would you like another icestorm on 1/20?
And the one you're having this weekend would seem like tiddlywinks in comparison.
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Yeah, I've never seen the Euro use the colors it's using for freezing rain on that output of the 12Z run. Crazy heavy freezing rain. Wowzers! It's unreal.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Wedging is definitely stronger, as is the high. I'm skeptical of the high being that strong at game time. But if it is, icing should be more expansive than the event unfolding now.
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No doubt. Having snow pack with a 1045 hp would be epic ice for here.
 
There’s the 1/20 storm I talked about a few days ago on this afternoon’s euro run. Personally wouldn’t mind this missing to the north or getting fringe ice, would be great to put down a lot of snow cover to our north as we get into the last week of January with the pattern becoming potentially even more favorable (as expected weeks ago).
 
Webberweather53 said:
There’s the 1/20 storm I talked about a few days ago on this afternoon’s euro run. Personally wouldn’t mind this missing to the north or getting fringe ice, would be great to put down a lot of snow cover to our north as we get into the last week of January with the pattern becoming potentially even more favorable (as expected weeks ago).
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Even better would be for it to put down a foot of snow across the whole SE to set the stage for the next storm :) This new pattern we are entering is going to be loaded with potential though, we may miss on a few storms but I agree if it's laying down snowpack to our north that will help with future shots of cold air and potential chances.
 
DarkKnight said:
This is defintely a perfect spot for a storm to start for those wanting a snow in the Deep South. With plenty of cold air to the north. It’s textbook, just wish with was within 120 hours inside of 300 hours. View attachment 10718
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I'm assuming that glorious LOW just south of TX meanders into the Gulf and heads NE
 
The storm to watch now IMO is the one Webber and a few other posters have pointed out around the 20-21st. It's getting into the range where we can start watching trends and models will get a better handle on the basic setup. Here's the icy Euro alluded to, wouldn't take much for this to come south and be a big storm for many here. Models seem to agree that there will be a BIG storm with the main question being where it tracks and how much cold it has to work with. GEFS members are encouraging for this system too.
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DarkKnight said:
Yes, then their is another storm right on it’s heels at the end of the run. View attachment 10724
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That one looks to be an overrunning event for SE TX and LA. Never experienced snow on snow in my life. If it verifies I will have to upload some pics.

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The 12Z EPS suggests a snow threat of who knows what magnitude for parts of the SE 1/24-5 in between two Arctic airmasses. Would this be a relatively dry light precip event due to mainly dry W to WNW flow or would H5 be able to back to WSW between Arctic airmases and produce what would quite possibly then be a major Miller A GOM SE winter storm?
 
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