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Pattern Jammin' January

From Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"

"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
 
GaWx said:
From Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"

"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
Click to expand...

Not surprised at all by this.


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Glory setting up on 12z CMC? Maybe so.
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GaWx said:
From Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"

"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
Click to expand...
So the GEFS has been much better with the MJO forecast but horrible with how this effects the upcoming pattern, while the EPS has been horrible with the MJO forecast but better with the upcoming pattern? Or both just plain suck right now? Do models actually "factor" in (for lack of better term) the MJO progression into how the pattern will evolve? Stupid questions? Probably but honestly I had to step away for a couple of days because reading this place was depressing lol and I'm just a wannabe :)
 
Nice storm for Boston in the 8th-10th period on the 12z gfs .....


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Well, doesn't look like there will be any threats here this week. Maybe we can get something the weekend of the 11th.
 
GaWx said:
From Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"

"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
Click to expand...

Great read...thanks for sharing! We went through this last Feb. Models, kept showing better patterns by last week of Feb, then end of Feb, then it was first week of March. It did come, 2nd week of March. We haven’t even reached the EPS fantasy stage yet. We need the EPS/GEFS to both agree on a day 10+ pattern that looks good, then we add 7-10 days to that before it verifies and we feel the effects. Assuming it comes.
 
Nice little hit for NC on the canadian. To bad it will be gone next run.
 
Kylo said:
Great read...thanks for sharing! We went through this last Feb. Models, kept showing better patterns by last week of Feb, then end of Feb, then it was first week of March. It did come, 2nd week of March. We haven’t even reached the EPS fantasy stage yet. We need the EPS/GEFS to both agree on a day 10+ pattern that looks good, then we add 7-10 days to that before it verifies and we feel the effects. Assuming it comes.
Click to expand...
Idk about you but I’m still hugging that EPS 1,000hr fantasy snow map from last week
 
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