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Pattern Jammin' January

18z says a cad, and now some more wintry weather for nc, do I buy it ? No but it is interesting
Screenshot_20181228-171448.png
 
That’s a perfect miller A next week. Depends on how much cold wraps in on backside of this. This thing still bares watching


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Screenshot_20181228-171901.png 18z gfs does not completely close off the upper level disturbance until it's over central nc, also more faster/progressive on this run but it is the 18z ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 9655 18z gfs does not completely close off the upper level disturbance until it's over central nc, also more faster/progressive on this run but it is the 18z
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That gfs run is a improvement. Previous runs had the low track inland right through South Carolina. This run tracks the low off shore hugging the coast. If we can get this to trend colder we may have something. Right now the mountains would see a good snow from this.


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HUNtsville now has chance of snow showers wed through fri
Wednesday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Sunny, with a high near 47.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Seems like we’ve been seeing positive trends in modeling for like 4 weeks, and here we are , still looking longingly for a great pattern!
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I haven’t seen any positive trends in any model for any period of time recently. I’ve seen some good patterns modeled infrequently out in la la land. But I haven’t seen anything trending positively on any model. The only real trend has been for a SSW to occur. How that ends up influencing the pattern is literally anyone’s guess.

Regarding the NAO discussion, a couple of things come to mind. First, the term “Southeast” refers to a large area. It moves me to wonder if the same correlations hold true for, say, western TN or northern MS as Charleston, SC and Raleigh, NC? My guess is that it would be easier to get more frequent winter storms in western and northern areas of the SE than more eastern and southern areas without a -NAO.

Secondly, the -NAO suppresses the height field, shunting the jet southward, and slows the flow. Just on its face, that seems like a good background to have in the southeast. I don’t take that to mean we can’t have winter storms without it, but my experience, particularly over the last several years of -EPO/+PNA conditions, tells me that without a mechanism in place to suppress the flow, eastern and southern areas in particular are going to be mixy and sloppy most of the time.
 
FV3 is not bad for the western part of the southeast and Tennessee. Doesn't back the GFS up on NC snow though.
 
Rain Cold said:
I haven’t seen any positive trends in any model for any period of time recently. I’ve seen some good patterns modeled infrequently out in la la land. But I haven’t seen anything trending positively on any model. The only real trend has been for a SSW to occur. How that ends up influencing the pattern is literally anyone’s guess.

Regarding the NAO discussion, a couple of things come to mind. First, the term “Southeast” refers to a large area. It moves me to wonder if the same correlations hold true for, say, western TN or northern MS as Charleston, SC and Raleigh, NC? My guess is that it would be easier to get more frequent winter storms in western and northern areas of the SE than more eastern and southern areas without a -NAO.

Secondly, the -NAO suppresses the height field, shunting the jet southward, and slows the flow. Just on its face, that seems like a good background to have in the southeast. I don’t take that to mean we can’t have winter storms without it, but my experience, particularly over the last several years of -EPO/+PNA conditions, tells me that without a mechanism in place to suppress the flow, eastern and southern areas in particular are going to be mixy and sloppy most of the time.
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AKA: The Fixer
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
Stormlover do you think central Alabama have a chance as well
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Based on the most recent models, areas north and west of the I-59 corridor would stand the best shot, with the best chance being in Northern MS, SW TN & maybe Arkansas & North LA.

That’s based on just the last model run or so...a lot will likely change in the next few days.
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
Darkknight do you think areas in West Central Alabama around Tuscaloosa can have a chance as well
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Ilovesnow28 said:
Stormlover do you think central Alabama have a chance as well
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It's fine to ask once, but every few runs or so and two posts in a row is a bit much. Please refrain from asking constantly. :)
 
Rain Cold said:
I haven’t seen any positive trends in any model for any period of time recently. I’ve seen some good patterns modeled infrequently out in la la land. But I haven’t seen anything trending positively on any model. The only real trend has been for a SSW to occur. How that ends up influencing the pattern is literally anyone’s guess.

Regarding the NAO discussion, a couple of things come to mind. First, the term “Southeast” refers to a large area. It moves me to wonder if the same correlations hold true for, say, western TN or northern MS as Charleston, SC and Raleigh, NC? My guess is that it would be easier to get more frequent winter storms in western and northern areas of the SE than more eastern and southern areas without a -NAO.

Secondly, the -NAO suppresses the height field, shunting the jet southward, and slows the flow. Just on its face, that seems like a good background to have in the southeast. I don’t take that to mean we can’t have winter storms without it, but my experience, particularly over the last se
Click to expand...

Very good post.
 
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