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Pattern Jammin' January

12z gefs through day 8
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EC has LP along the TX coast at 168...temps are warm over the SE however. Let's see where it goes from here. Signal for a storm is strong, that much is certain.

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By day 8 the EC has strung out LP along the SE coast. Looks somewhat similar overall to the Dec. storm, but not nearly as cold.
 
Jon said:
That ridge pump on the cmc is no joke. That’s how we’ll win out with a flow like this. Interested to see how ensembles trend here.
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I would say if that look brings the SE a snow, Id eat crow, but I dont think I could shoot one.
 
I just watched joe bastardi's free Saturday summary. He still believes winter roars back in mid jan on. Who has access to weatherbell, he did a video for his premium members not long ago. Maybe someone can watch it.
 
Golf7575 said:
I just watched joe bastardi's free Saturday summary. He still believes winter roars back in mid jan on. Who has access to weatherbell, he did a video for his premium members not long ago. Maybe someone can watch it.
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Personally, I would take JB with a grain of salt. He only cares about what falls in his backyard. In the end, I guess that's how most of us are, but when he talks about cold and snow you can bet that he is mainly talking about the NE.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Personally, I would take JB with a grain of salt. He only cares about what falls in his backyard. In the end, I guess that's how most of us are, but when he talks about cold and snow you can bet that he is mainly talking about the NE.
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You have to admit, there are encouraging signs for about January 20 onward. However, if it gets pushed back again, this winter (outside of NC) will for sure be on the ropes
 
GaWx said:
Per this link, the longest strong phase 5 since1975 during Nov-Mar has been only about 10 days and longest in moderate 5 12 days (Dec 94). Compare this to what’s going to end up as 14 days of strong phase 5 this month: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt
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GaWx said:
More precisely, the longest strong Nov-Mar phase 5 on record is only 8 days (1/1990) and we’re headed to 14+!
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Bumping this. We just set a new record for cold season (back to 1975 for Nov-Mar) for the longest strong (amp 2+) phase 5 MJO: 15 days (12/18-1/1) beating the 8 days for strong (1/90) and the 12 days of mod (12/94). Maybe this is related to the most +SOI Niño Dec by a good margin since at least the 1870s and I assume is a big reason for the mild late Dec.

In stark contrast, the SOI has since crashed in recent days (kudos to Delta for being on top of) and the MJO fcast consensus is looking pretty darn good, especially with it being Niño. It is headed toward low amp 8 followed by a move to inside the COD (again kudos to especially Delta, who has emphasized the EPS’ good path) either inside COD phase 8, the coldest on average, or inside COD phase 1, still a chilly place to go on average in Niño. This in combo with a -AO that is now starting to drop and is projected to get to -2ish on GEFS for day 7 is likely imo why the model consensus has cooled so much for 1/10-15 in the SE. Keep watching this period.

For the longer term, the EPS and Euro monthly has the MJO then circling around within or near the COD and curling back toward the inside left COD. IF this is right, look out late Jan into at least early Feb!

If 1/9-15 ends up being as cold as it is starting to look, the expectations back about 10-14 days ago of many for a cold most of Jan in the SE after a mild start could actually happen after all, especially if the MJO doesn’t go back outside the COD. Wouldn’t it be something if after it was starting to look like most of Jan could be warm as of just 48 hours ago and some were thinking it was then up to Feb to save the SE winter (outside of GSO/RDU vicinity, which already got a big snow) it suddenly ends up being a mostly cold Jan? I mean it is still possible that Jan ends up being the most memorable month this winter for many in the SE. I’m not predicting that but am saying it wouldn’t be a shocker.
 
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GaWx said:
Bumping this. We just set a new record for cold season (back to 1975 for Nov-Mar) for the longest strong (amp 2+) phase 5 MJO: 15 days (12/18-1/1) beating the 8 days for strong (1/90) and the 12 days of mod (12/94). Maybe this is related to the most +SOI Niño Dec by a good margin since at least the 1870s and I assume is a big reason for the mild late Dec.

In stark contrast, the SOI has since crashed in recent days (kudos to Delta for being on top of) and the MJO fcast consensus is looking pretty darn good, especially with it being Niño. It is headed toward low amp 8 followed by a move to inside the COD (again kudos to especially Delta, who has emphasized the EPS’ good path) either inside COD phase 8, the coldest on average, or inside COD phase 1, still a chilly place to go on average in Niño. This in combo with a -AO that is now starting to drop and is projected to get to -2ish on GEFS for day 7 is likely imo why the model consensus has cooled so much for 1/10-15 in the SE. Keep watching this period.

For the longer term, the EPS and Euro monthly has the MJO then circling around within or near the COD and curling back toward the inside left COD. IF this is right, look out late Jan into at least early Feb!

If 1/9-15 ends up being as cold as it is starting to look, the expectations back about 10-14 days ago of many for a cold most of Jan in the SE after a mild start could actually happen after all, especially if the MJO doesn’t go back outside the COD. Wouldn’t it be something if after it was starting to look like most of Jan could be warm as of just 48 hours ago and some were thinking it was then up to Feb to save the SE winter (outside of GSO/RDU vicinity, which already got a big snow) it suddenly ends up being a mostly cold Jan? I mean it is still possible that Jan ends up being the most memorable month this winter for many in the SE. I’m not predicting that but am saying it wouldn’t be a shocker.
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Agreed
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Please toss 18z Gfs.. NO sustain cold air for South..
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You are a few weeks early if you’re looking for sustained cold . In and out cold shots will be the rule for the next 15 days . All we can do is hope we time something right in this fast ugly flow


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Its not impossible to think something well timed could sneak through as the pattern is shuffling but that's a dangerous game.

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Storm5 said:
You are a few weeks early if you’re looking for sustained cold . In and out cold shots will be the rule for the next 15 days . All we can do is hope we time something right in this fast ugly flow


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If we’re still looking for sustained cold in a few weeks, we better pull out the Euro Annual and see what next winter is looking like lol
 
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