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Pattern Jammin' January

Best look we've seen yet all winter. Over running!
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The pattern will change just the timing of it is a bit foggy. The models haven’t been consistent at all but have shown looks to point towards a pattern change


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Kylo said:
One thing the EPS and GEFS both agree is the cold staying bottled up over the arctic and northern Canada. Europe cold though. Pattern is getting better by the 20th but still work to do. Last year it took a good 3 weeks before we turned colder across the east. Hopefully by next week we start seeing signs on extended guidance.

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Yeah I agree. The 5h pattern seems to want to get back on track around the 20th, but the temps aren't there yet. It's going to be a week later before were really in go time, imo.
 
For some of y'all deep south folks, in her swan song, here's really, really hoping the old 18Z GFS is right for a run ...

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GaWx said:
Looking on a US heating DD basis, the cooling on the op GFS since the 12Z run of yesterday for 1/9-15 has been nothing short of impressive!

12Z Thu run: 137 HDD -41 vs norm
0Z Fri run: 144
6Z Fri 165
12z fri 173
18Z Fri 180 +2 vs norm

Edit: I should add that the GFS is warm biased.
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A followup to the above: model consensus has MJO in 1.5 amp phase 8 on 1/9 that then weakens to lower amp and then within COD phase 8 1/10-15. Per that study I did of 1975-2014 Jans, under 1.5 amp (including into COD) phase 8 was found to be the coldest in the SE on average. Could the cooling influence of weak phase 8 just now be waking up the models? If so, this could get even more interesting. We’ve already gone from a much warmer than normal SE 1/9-15 on yesterday’s 12Z GFS to a slightly colder than normal 1/9-15 on today’s 18Z and the cooling adjustments look like they may not be nearly complete. Let’s see if this period keeps getting even colder in future GFS runs. Some of this could the GFS warm bias being negated but this has been a rapid cooling and all models have cooled for this period.
 
Kylo said:
Basic reading comprehension? Get help.
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I have been on these weather boards for many years and reading a weather map is not one of my weaknesses. The thing I find most amusing is when folks panic over a warm pattern in winter. You might not believe the modeled upcoming pattern change, but you can't ignore the SOI tanking. That's happening now. Take off the warm glasses for a minute.
 
GaWx said:
A followup to the above: model consensus has MJO in 1.5 amp phase 8 on 1/9 that then weakens to lower amp and then within COD phase 8 1/10-15. Per that study I did of 1975-2014 Jans, under 1.5 amp (including into COD) phase 8 was found to be the coldest in the SE on average. Could the cooling influence of weak phase 8 just now be waking up the models? If so, this could get even more interesting. We’ve already gone from a much warmer than normal SE 1/9-15 on yesterday’s 12Z GFS to a slightly colder than normal 1/9-15 on today’s 18Z and the cooling adjustments look like they may not be nearly complete. Let’s see if this period keeps getting even colder in future GFS runs. Some of this could the GFS warm bias being negated but this has been a rapid cooling and all models have cooled for this period.
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You rock, Larry!
Now, let's all do so ... ;)
 
I forgot to add that in addition to the often very favorable for cold SE weak phase 8 MJO, the 0Z GEFS projected a dip from the current +1 to a -2 AO for 1/9-14. Maybe the models are telling us this combo is going to overcome the warm doo doo?
 
snowlover91 said:
I think the difference this time is this pattern change fits in better with the Nino transitions we've seen post 2000 (based off memory) where the transition seems to occur between January 10-20th. Also we have the cold about to hit Europe pretty hard in the next 3-4 days which we typically see as the first region affected by strong SSW events before swinging around to the US within 7-10 days. Everything synoptically is lining up for a mid-January flip that is real this time. Models oftentimes are too quick with the pattern flip and I think that's what we saw a week ago.
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I think so too and it fits the time frame after last years SSW. That said Im not getting bit again.
 
whatalife said:
I think you have to give credit to the GEFS and the GEPS on this one. They have led the way this time around. Which doesn't happen very often. I will lean towards the EPS more often than not and I count this one as a win for the GEFS and GEPS.
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Dont forget though, they also led the way in predicting the same pattern last week and then they caved in awesome fashion.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I have been on these weather boards for many years and reading a weather map is not one of my weaknesses. The thing I find most amusing is when folks panic over a warm pattern in winter. You might not believe the modeled upcoming pattern change, but you can't ignore the SOI tanking. That's happening now. Take off the warm glasses for a minute.
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You are the one freaking out, trolling me.....no clue why you insist on trolling me. My 2nd or 3rd sentence said the pattern looks to improve. But we still have issues if you want cold to dump into the conus....there is a reason why models are bottling cold up over the arctic. I said last year it took a little over 3 weeks for cold to return after last years strat warm, so if we follow that timeline that puts us the last week of January...thus no need to panic, we got time for that magic to work. That's what my post said. The 30/90 day SOI is in unprecedented nina territory, it will take more than 4 days to affect the pattern.

You started trolling me back in mid-December when I said January looked rough, and it is. I hope it gets cold, I hope it gets snowy, mainly for people like you to stop trolling.
 
Kylo said:
You are the one freaking out, trolling me.....no clue why you insist on trolling me. My 2nd or 3rd sentence said the pattern looks to improve. But we still have issues if you want cold to dump into the conus....there is a reason why models are bottling cold up over the arctic. I said last year it took a little over 3 weeks for cold to return after last years strat warm, so if we follow that timeline that puts us the last week of January...thus no need to panic, we got time for that magic to work. That's what my post said. The 30/90 day SOI is in unprecedented nina territory, it will take more than 4 days to affect the pattern.

You started trolling me back in mid-December when I said January looked rough, and it is. I hope it gets cold, I hope it gets snowy, mainly for people like you to stop trolling.
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He's been trolling me for a year almost. First it was over an ULL that produced snow in March and even though I said it would snow and it did -- and I did say at first no accumulations east of the higher elevations -- but not to let the NAM snooker you, somehow because it snowed 1-2" it made the NAM's insane 9-10" forecasts right and me wrong. At worst, I was off by 2" and the NAM 7" but what's 7"?! Then this year, it was me not using my "model tools" correctly and being a climo forecaster. My buddies at work are still making jokes over that one. He only chooses to comprehend the parts of posts he wants to. FWIW, I completely agree with your assessment and was going to post something similar earlier - I actually did yesterday stating that we need to see the PV continue to slide further southeast.
 
1300m said:
He's been trolling me for a year almost. First it was over an ULL that produced snow and even though I said it would snow and it did but not to let the NAM snooker you, somehow because it snowed 1-2" it made the NAM's insane 9-10" forecasts right and me wrong. Then this year, it was me not using my "model tools" correctly and being a climo forecaster. My buddies at work are still making jokes over that one. He only chooses to comprehend the parts of posts he wants to. FWIW, I completely agree with your assessment and was going to post something similar earlier - I actually did yesterday stating that we need to see the PV continue to slide further southeast.
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Agreed...that is sticking out like a sore thumb, especially on the EPS, but didn't want to bring it up because people lose their mind over stuff like that. I am scared to even post or discuss anything unless it's going to be cold and snowy.

I actually thought my original post was somewhat positive :)
 
Kylo said:
Agreed...that is sticking out like a sore thumb, especially on the EPS, but didn't want to bring it up because people lose their mind over stuff like that. I am scared to even post or discuss anything unless it's going to be cold and snowy.

I actually thought my original post was somewhat positive :)
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I am hopeful it'll get there as we move towards February and hopefully see a more extensive block form near Hudson Bay and shove it southward, but like you said taken verbatim GEFS/GEPS still shows a pattern where most of the cold is bottled up in southeastern Canada. Obviously some massive shifts in the right direction, we just don't want it to end here ;)

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pcbjr said:
Jon,
Please send the next 2 runs that show the same ...
Please ...
(If not, a small Rx would be welcomely needed) ...
Best!
Phil
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Will do!

The monthly is off to a good stat as well for February. Of course it has about 25 days to change....

Last 3 days (12 runs) averaged together:
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Kylo said:
You are the one freaking out, trolling me.....no clue why you insist on trolling me. My 2nd or 3rd sentence said the pattern looks to improve. But we still have issues if you want cold to dump into the conus....there is a reason why models are bottling cold up over the arctic. I said last year it took a little over 3 weeks for cold to return after last years strat warm, so if we follow that timeline that puts us the last week of January...thus no need to panic, we got time for that magic to work. That's what my post said. The 30/90 day SOI is in unprecedented nina territory, it will take more than 4 days to affect the pattern.

You started trolling me back in mid-December when I said January looked rough, and it is. I hope it gets cold, I hope it gets snowy, mainly for people like you to stop trolling.
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No, you punted January, implying that the pattern would remain warm until February. It may happen, but there is no way of knowing what will happen 4 weeks out. That's why I was critical of your post. However, you don't have to be scared any more. I won't be replying to any of your post ever again. Post away....
 
1300m said:
Looks like blocking to me.

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cfs-avg_T2maMean_nhem_5.png
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Thanks. I’ve been out indulging in the 32oz Dos Equis tonight. East of the mountains (NC,SC,VA) looked “not as cold” as others on those departure maps? Maybe we’ll be fighting off some ridging? Maybe I’m intoxicated? I apologize for the banter
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Thanks. I’ve been out indulging in the 32oz Dos Equis tonight. East of the mountains (NC,SC,VA) looked “not as cold” as others on those departure maps? Maybe we’ll be fighting off some ridging? Maybe I’m intoxicated? I apologize for the banter
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Pretty classic look. The Apps are of course going to block some of the coldest anomalies from making it east but still a solid BN signal.
 
Golf7575 said:
How long does it take for a EAMT event to effect the pattern? Just curious. Thanks in advance
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I'll be totally honest, I don't have much knowledge of this phenomenon but Webber already gave you an excellent response this morning.
Webberweather53 said:
The negative East Asia Mountain Torque event I talked about last week (with low pressure over the Tibet Plateau and China) is now showing up in the medium range on most major ensemble suites. This is one of your first big warning signs of an upcoming pattern change because the negative mountain torque event will help retract/pull back the Pacific jet. This jet retraction allows the Aleutian low to retrograde westward in addition to more breathing room to dig southward, and leaves us with a more malleable, “wavy” jet stream that is thus more conducive to blocking downstream in the NE Pacific and Alaska (-EPO) in the longer term. It’ll take about a week or so for the Pacific jet to respond to this negative mountain torque over east Asia which puts us around the time when NWP is finally showing a favorable pattern for cold/snow, essentially about 2 weeks from now.
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1300m said:
I'll be totally honest, I don't have much knowledge of this phenomenon but Webber already gave you an excellent response this morning.
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It would just seem that the models/ensembles would be really hinting at something by now. Those are big players 1300M
 
Golf7575 said:
It would just seem that the models/ensembles would be really hinting at something by now. Those are big players 1300M
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They are. Look at the 48 hour trend we've seen. It's all interconnected but the MJO has been a big piece of the puzzle that the models are starting to resolve this along with the SSW and we are likely at the beginning of a nice trend heading toward 1/15 and beyond.
 
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