• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

Cad Wedge NC said:
I have been on these weather boards for many years and reading a weather map is not one of my weaknesses. The thing I find most amusing is when folks panic over a warm pattern in winter. You might not believe the modeled upcoming pattern change, but you can't ignore the SOI tanking. That's happening now. Take off the warm glasses for a minute.
Click to expand...

You are the one freaking out, trolling me.....no clue why you insist on trolling me. My 2nd or 3rd sentence said the pattern looks to improve. But we still have issues if you want cold to dump into the conus....there is a reason why models are bottling cold up over the arctic. I said last year it took a little over 3 weeks for cold to return after last years strat warm, so if we follow that timeline that puts us the last week of January...thus no need to panic, we got time for that magic to work. That's what my post said. The 30/90 day SOI is in unprecedented nina territory, it will take more than 4 days to affect the pattern.

You started trolling me back in mid-December when I said January looked rough, and it is. I hope it gets cold, I hope it gets snowy, mainly for people like you to stop trolling.
 
Kylo said:
You are the one freaking out, trolling me.....no clue why you insist on trolling me. My 2nd or 3rd sentence said the pattern looks to improve. But we still have issues if you want cold to dump into the conus....there is a reason why models are bottling cold up over the arctic. I said last year it took a little over 3 weeks for cold to return after last years strat warm, so if we follow that timeline that puts us the last week of January...thus no need to panic, we got time for that magic to work. That's what my post said. The 30/90 day SOI is in unprecedented nina territory, it will take more than 4 days to affect the pattern.

You started trolling me back in mid-December when I said January looked rough, and it is. I hope it gets cold, I hope it gets snowy, mainly for people like you to stop trolling.
Click to expand...

He's been trolling me for a year almost. First it was over an ULL that produced snow in March and even though I said it would snow and it did -- and I did say at first no accumulations east of the higher elevations -- but not to let the NAM snooker you, somehow because it snowed 1-2" it made the NAM's insane 9-10" forecasts right and me wrong. At worst, I was off by 2" and the NAM 7" but what's 7"?! Then this year, it was me not using my "model tools" correctly and being a climo forecaster. My buddies at work are still making jokes over that one. He only chooses to comprehend the parts of posts he wants to. FWIW, I completely agree with your assessment and was going to post something similar earlier - I actually did yesterday stating that we need to see the PV continue to slide further southeast.
 
1300m said:
He's been trolling me for a year almost. First it was over an ULL that produced snow and even though I said it would snow and it did but not to let the NAM snooker you, somehow because it snowed 1-2" it made the NAM's insane 9-10" forecasts right and me wrong. Then this year, it was me not using my "model tools" correctly and being a climo forecaster. My buddies at work are still making jokes over that one. He only chooses to comprehend the parts of posts he wants to. FWIW, I completely agree with your assessment and was going to post something similar earlier - I actually did yesterday stating that we need to see the PV continue to slide further southeast.
Click to expand...

Agreed...that is sticking out like a sore thumb, especially on the EPS, but didn't want to bring it up because people lose their mind over stuff like that. I am scared to even post or discuss anything unless it's going to be cold and snowy.

I actually thought my original post was somewhat positive :)
 
More CFSv2 fun...
3a9e03e8c3212ec9f5f36fe0225959e3.jpg

0724024eb2705164db9617819d0c944e.jpg

b38bd189001d9d6a3baabe2b6a7d2871.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kylo said:
Agreed...that is sticking out like a sore thumb, especially on the EPS, but didn't want to bring it up because people lose their mind over stuff like that. I am scared to even post or discuss anything unless it's going to be cold and snowy.

I actually thought my original post was somewhat positive :)
Click to expand...
I am hopeful it'll get there as we move towards February and hopefully see a more extensive block form near Hudson Bay and shove it southward, but like you said taken verbatim GEFS/GEPS still shows a pattern where most of the cold is bottled up in southeastern Canada. Obviously some massive shifts in the right direction, we just don't want it to end here ;)

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png


gfs-ens_T850a_nhem_65.png
 
pcbjr said:
Jon,
Please send the next 2 runs that show the same ...
Please ...
(If not, a small Rx would be welcomely needed) ...
Best!
Phil
Click to expand...

Will do!

The monthly is off to a good stat as well for February. Of course it has about 25 days to change....

Last 3 days (12 runs) averaged together:
3fe8a7559f97fab1e47ff0db73265cf8.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kylo said:
You are the one freaking out, trolling me.....no clue why you insist on trolling me. My 2nd or 3rd sentence said the pattern looks to improve. But we still have issues if you want cold to dump into the conus....there is a reason why models are bottling cold up over the arctic. I said last year it took a little over 3 weeks for cold to return after last years strat warm, so if we follow that timeline that puts us the last week of January...thus no need to panic, we got time for that magic to work. That's what my post said. The 30/90 day SOI is in unprecedented nina territory, it will take more than 4 days to affect the pattern.

You started trolling me back in mid-December when I said January looked rough, and it is. I hope it gets cold, I hope it gets snowy, mainly for people like you to stop trolling.
Click to expand...
No, you punted January, implying that the pattern would remain warm until February. It may happen, but there is no way of knowing what will happen 4 weeks out. That's why I was critical of your post. However, you don't have to be scared any more. I won't be replying to any of your post ever again. Post away....
 
1300m said:
Looks like blocking to me.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_5.png


cfs-avg_T2maMean_nhem_5.png
Click to expand...
Thanks. I’ve been out indulging in the 32oz Dos Equis tonight. East of the mountains (NC,SC,VA) looked “not as cold” as others on those departure maps? Maybe we’ll be fighting off some ridging? Maybe I’m intoxicated? I apologize for the banter
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Thanks. I’ve been out indulging in the 32oz Dos Equis tonight. East of the mountains (NC,SC,VA) looked “not as cold” as others on those departure maps? Maybe we’ll be fighting off some ridging? Maybe I’m intoxicated? I apologize for the banter
Click to expand...
Pretty classic look. The Apps are of course going to block some of the coldest anomalies from making it east but still a solid BN signal.
 
Golf7575 said:
How long does it take for a EAMT event to effect the pattern? Just curious. Thanks in advance
Click to expand...
I'll be totally honest, I don't have much knowledge of this phenomenon but Webber already gave you an excellent response this morning.
Webberweather53 said:
The negative East Asia Mountain Torque event I talked about last week (with low pressure over the Tibet Plateau and China) is now showing up in the medium range on most major ensemble suites. This is one of your first big warning signs of an upcoming pattern change because the negative mountain torque event will help retract/pull back the Pacific jet. This jet retraction allows the Aleutian low to retrograde westward in addition to more breathing room to dig southward, and leaves us with a more malleable, “wavy” jet stream that is thus more conducive to blocking downstream in the NE Pacific and Alaska (-EPO) in the longer term. It’ll take about a week or so for the Pacific jet to respond to this negative mountain torque over east Asia which puts us around the time when NWP is finally showing a favorable pattern for cold/snow, essentially about 2 weeks from now.
Click to expand...
 
1300m said:
I'll be totally honest, I don't have much knowledge of this phenomenon but Webber already gave you an excellent response this morning.
Click to expand...
It would just seem that the models/ensembles would be really hinting at something by now. Those are big players 1300M
 
Golf7575 said:
It would just seem that the models/ensembles would be really hinting at something by now. Those are big players 1300M
Click to expand...
They are. Look at the 48 hour trend we've seen. It's all interconnected but the MJO has been a big piece of the puzzle that the models are starting to resolve this along with the SSW and we are likely at the beginning of a nice trend heading toward 1/15 and beyond.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top