Pattern Jammin' January

[accu35]

I've been watching this time frame, maybe little something

 

[accu35]

FV3 agrees with something

 

[whatalife]

I have an extremely hard time putting stock in the CFS. I suppose it could be right, and it fits with what everyone has been saying in terms of timing. But the Ops are now starting to see into the end of Jan, and they’re not showing anything more than hints of a change, which is about the same as the several weeks now. There are still ways to score, but nothing stands out to me yet as being a good looking pattern, at any sort of reasonable lead.

So we’ve gone from the GEFS and GEPS supposedly leading the way to a pattern change to hanging our hats on the CFS. What could possibly go wrong with that.?. Meanwhile the EPS 11-15 just continues to show heat. This is turning out to be a great winter (meant as sarcasm)


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[Storm5]

So we’ve gone from the GEFS and GEPS supposedly leading the way to a pattern change to hanging our hats on the CFS. What could possibly go wrong with that.?. Meanwhile the EPS 11-15 just continues to show heat. This is turning out to be a great winter


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[Golf7575]

Webber, im thinking this mountain torque event isnt going to work out for us this time. The downwelling to troposphere is going to take a long time with this SSW.

 

[Jon]

So we’ve gone from the GEFS and GEPS supposedly leading the way to a pattern change to hanging our hats on the CFS. What could possibly go wrong with that.?. Meanwhile the EPS 11-15 just continues to show heat. This is turning out to be a great winter


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What?????

The big 3 are still showing a significant pattern change for Day 10-15 and mid month.

GEFS Day 10-15, significant blocking over the top.

Which gets better and better

EPS Jan 18

Block building Jan 20

Canadian ensemble, block building

Jan 20th+ with a -AO/-NAO/+PNA

The cold is very clearly coming to our side of the hemisphere toward the end of Jan. Hopefully we get the blocking we need to keep it there for a little while, and all indications look like we will. CFS plays fourth fiddle here.




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[Jon]

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Day 15 two meter temperature anomalies are notoriously terrible. Gotta look big picture and focus on pattern evolution that will drive colder temperatures. These won’t verify if the 500mb pattern looks the way it does.


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[Golf7575]

What?????

The big 3 are still showing a significant pattern change for Day 10-15 and mid month.

GEFS Day 10-15, significant blocking over the top.

Which gets better and better

EPS Jan 18

Block building Jan 20

Canadian ensemble, block building

Jan 20th+ with a -AO/-NAO/+PNA

The cold is very clearly coming to our side of the hemisphere toward the end of Jan. Hopefully we get the blocking we need to keep it there for a little while, and all indications look like we will. CFS plays fourth fiddle here.




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Jon, its always at 384hrs out bud. Its getting pushed out further. Pacific jet is too overwhelming.

 

[Webberweather53]

Webber, im thinking this mountain torque event isnt going to work out for us this time. The downwelling to troposphere is going to take a long time with this SSW.

The SSWE is already downwelling into the troposphere, that’s why there a big surface high over the pole

 

[Jon]

Jon, its always at 384hrs out bud. Its getting pushed out further. Pacific jet is too overwhelming.

It’s not being pushed on further bud. It wasn’t even on the modeling 5 days ago, and the pattern change has been discussed to occur mid month, which is on track. Unfortunately we have no choice but to post 300+ hour maps, because that’s when the change will be occurring. If you don’t believe me, let’s revisit Jan 15th when Jan 20-25th is Day 5-10, I bet it won’t show heat.


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[Kylo]

What?????

The big 3 are still showing a significant pattern change for Day 10-15 and mid month.

GEFS Day 10-15, significant blocking over the top.

Which gets better and better

EPS Jan 18

Block building Jan 20

Canadian ensemble, block building

Jan 20th+ with a -AO/-NAO/+PNA

The cold is very clearly coming to our side of the hemisphere toward the end of Jan. Hopefully we get the blocking we need to keep it there for a little while, and all indications look like we will. CFS plays fourth fiddle here.




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The pattern is definitely changing to a more nino look, which is good news. The bad news is the pac jet is still screaming, hopefully that calms down as we progress towards end of January. Bigger problem is the vortex just west of Greenland, that is going to prevent deep cold from penetrating the conus. That has to move.




MJO looks more favorable though. Remember when GEFS had it stalling in ph7...now it's 2 days in ph7. Though ph7 in January is a snow phase for SE in January.

 

[Golf7575]

The SSWE is already downwelling into the troposphere, that’s why there a big surface high over the pole

Perhaps the models are taking a longer time adjusting to these changes. We shall see

 

[whatalife]

What?????

The big 3 are still showing a significant pattern change for Day 10-15 and mid month.

GEFS Day 10-15, significant blocking over the top.

Which gets better and better

EPS Jan 18

Block building Jan 20

Canadian ensemble, block building

Jan 20th+ with a -AO/-NAO/+PNA

The cold is very clearly coming to our side of the hemisphere toward the end of Jan. Hopefully we get the blocking we need to keep it there for a little while, and all indications look like we will. CFS plays fourth fiddle here.




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Jon. Take a deep breath! It’s call sarcasm and I am very well aware of the differences between what 2meter and the 500. Yes! If the 500 is correct we will be colder.


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[Jon]

Jon. Take a deep breath! It’s call sarcasm and I am very well aware of the differences between what 2meter and the 500. Yes! If the 500 is correct we will be colder.


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Oh I’m calm. How am I supposed to tell that was sarcasm when the post beforehand mentioned heat and you added no context? I’m bad at mind reading, glad we agree.


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[Golf7575]

The pattern is definitely changing to a more nino look, which is good news. The bad news is the pac jet is still screaming, hopefully that calms down as we progress towards end of January. Bigger problem is the vortex just west of Greenland, that is going to prevent deep cold from penetrating the conus. That has to move.

View attachment 10029


MJO looks more favorable though. Remember when GEFS had it stalling in ph7...now it's 2 days in ph7. Though ph7 in January is a snow phase for SE in January.

View attachment 10030

Kylo, maybe by mid month on the pattern will reverse and we will be in better shape. Like you said, the jet is my main concern also. Kinda unusual in a elniño to see it screaming that strong imo. Almost like a strong niña lol.

 

[Kylo]

You can see at end of GEFS run the PV start to sink south with rising heights over the pole...

 

[Storm5]

Day 15 two meter temperature anomalies are notoriously terrible. Gotta look big picture and focus on pattern evolution that will drive colder temperatures. These won’t verify if the 500mb pattern looks the way it does.


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I agree especially with the so much flipping of the ensembles as they try and figure out the H5 pattern . People have been posting a lot of day 15 ensemble charts lately so I’m just joining the club

 

[Jon]

The pattern is definitely changing to a more nino look, which is good news. The bad news is the pac jet is still screaming, hopefully that calms down as we progress towards end of January. Bigger problem is the vortex just west of Greenland, that is going to prevent deep cold from penetrating the conus. That has to move.

View attachment 10029


MJO looks more favorable though. Remember when GEFS had it stalling in ph7...now it's 2 days in ph7. Though ph7 in January is a snow phase for SE in January.

View attachment 10030

I think the jet will actually work in our favor but that’s assuming the modeling is correct and the blocking evolves. Could get a moisture rich ULL or something wild that could absolutely dump snow for upper SE. Of course based on my research another 4”+ event is super rare for Raleigh, but maybe this is the year.


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[Jon]

I agree especially with the so much flipping of the ensembles as they try and figure out the H5 pattern . People have been posting a lot of day 15 ensemble charts lately so I’m just joining the club

I got ya. The outlier range is 65-32 for the high, and 56-43 for the IQR Day 15 for Raleigh. Yeah, long range is far from being nailed down but that’s normal at this range as y’all know.

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[Storm5]

I got ya. The outlier range is 65-32 for the high, and 56-43 for the IQR Day 15 for Raleigh. Yeah, long range is far from being nailed down but that’s normal at this range as y’all know.

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As frustrating as it’s been , it really is fun to see the wild swings , false starts and seeing the experts kinda scratching their heads . That’s what makes this fun . Just keep bringing us good news , your pretty spot on with LR stuff .


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