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Pattern 12/15-19 Coastal!!!!!

ICON on the coastline. More in line with other guidance.

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Also of note the 12k nam is more inland but not nearly as far as the 3k. It's not too far off the globals and may be a decent blend. We will have to see if the gfs euro and ukie make any west adjustments
 
If the 3K NAM and the HRRR verify all of SC and NC get very heavy rain and a lot of wind. The other NAM is wet for most of NC and SC, but keeps the worst of the wind east of I-95. The HRRR puts more of GA in play too, including ATL.
 
The GFS is a small tick west with the back edge of rain but is generally in line with the 18z. This also basically lines up with the NAM. The HRRR and the NAM 3k seem to be outliers for now.
 
For NC it comes down to Hi Res versus globals....the hi res models all take the center right up through central NC anywhere from 976-982 mb which would put the entire eastern half of the state getting gust well into the 40-60 range. The globals are hugging the coast with the center keeping the wind field off shore or on the IBX/OBX only. Same with the precip, hi res models focus highest rain totals in western NC and the globals in eastern. The hi res models and the globals have good consensus among themselves as to the track, they just differ on where that is, they all get the pressure into the low 980's by the time it is in NC...sucks that 24 hrs out there is such a big difference on track between the two camps.

For MBY the hi res track would probably get winds gusting 50ish or better and cut down on rain totals which is exactly what I want lol....so I am team hi res.
 
From Allan. Using 3k
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Its been fun to watch the level of phasing on the trailer currently in Iowa and how that biases the strength and track of this system. You can look at you model to model or r2r trends and see that's been tough for the models to pin down. I'd personally favor an I95 track but that leads to a wise range of sensible impacts due to a 50 mile west shift bringing more severe weather and wind to the Eastern Carolinas and GA.
 
From WRAL

NEW THIS MORNING: High resolution models have shifted the track of the low a tad to the west. This means our severe weather threat is increasing. Severe storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon and night. The tornado risk is in the level 2 risk area.

And it is ridiculous that less than 24 hours the global models and high resolution models are so far off from each other with the track.
 
The GFS is going east it looks like with this as it now has the low passing CHS 50 miles to the southeast and not onshore until Wilmington NC. Tons of rain in eastern NC, with some places nearing 8 inches. It is basically dry for AL and northwest GA.
 
Been in Elfland NC with family now heading to Boone
 
JHS said:
The GFS is going east it looks like with this as it now has the low passing CHS 50 miles to the southeast and not onshore until Wilmington NC. Tons of rain in eastern NC, with some places nearing 8 inches. It is basically dry for AL and northwest GA.
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How is it looking for Myrtle Beach. I am heading that way for a fencing tournament tomorrow. Lucky me , I have a beachfront hotel !
 
weatherfide said:
For why? It's just a rain storm and it doesn't pose a threat to anyone.
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Well it is likely to be a high impact event due to high winds and heavy rain for much of the east coast. Also there is a threat of coastal flooding as well. NOAA often uses the Hurricane Hunters during the winter months to gather data on what’s expected to be high impact events.
 
I was afraid of this ...
I talked about a potential of sting jets the other day...

From KCHS
High Winds --
There is a risk for high winds for Sunday. There could be two
distinct wind events; one in the morning with strong low-level
jetting in the warm sector with the second being a possible sting
jet scenario unfolding for the afternoon/evening. First, winds will
increase along the coast with gusts 40-45 mph likely. Gusts could be
locally higher along beaches and other exposed areas (such as areas
adjacent to the Charleston Harbor) where fictional influences will
be less. In fact, the 16/12z HREF mean shows wind gusts nearing 60
mph at times along parts of the Charleston County Coast. A Wind
Advisory has been posted 6 AM until 2 PM for all coastal zones to
account for these winds. There will also be an increased risk to
high-profile vehicles on the elevated bridges around the Charleston
and Savannah Metro Areas. The second event could unfold during the
afternoon hours as the mid-level cyclone passes by. There are
signals that a sting jet feature could develop along the nose of a
descending wind max within the cold conveyor positioned along the
west and southwest flanks of the mid-level cyclone. Sting jets are
notoriously difficult to forecast, but do have a well documented
history of producing wind damage. It will be interesting to see
how/if this materializes. Additional wind products may be needed if
this feature develops.
 
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