Pattern 12/15-19 Coastal!!!!!

[Ross]

icon: borderline blizzard for myself and a lucky blob the size of vermont. lol:

do not think this will happen but the interaction between our wet bomb and the trailing shortwave should be monitored. there is a camp that take it to a sharp cutoff. icon is wild because it folds into a negative tilt and gets a coastal rolling. other solutions on the table include some instability token IP/flakes or maybe some sort of clipper. likely nothing, but just think energy that sharp and begging to be cut off line that warrants some mild attention

 

[WXinCanton]

12z GFS Looks like yesterdays Euro lol

 

[Shaggy]

One things for sure and that's the models all seem to be locked in on a pretty significant weather event for the southeast

 

[JHS]

One more shift like that and a lot of us will be dry. That's a big change in 1 run from near Lake Erie to Norfolk VA.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

One more shift like that and a lot of us will be dry. That's a big change in 1 run from near Lake Erie to Norfolk VA.

Don’t think we see nomore shifts maybe small shifts to east or west with low but major impacts to SE this weekend.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

There is consensus on all models now.

 

[accu35]

979 over SC/NC

 

[Meteorologist1999]

View attachment 138606
979 over SC/NC

How about rainfall and winds?

 

[Mitch West]

UKMET follows the Euro with digging the follow up energy further West. Hits the Apps good with NW flow snow.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

UKMET follows the Euro with digging the follow up energy further West. Hits the Apps good with NW flow snow.
View attachment 138607

How about the wind and rainfall for midlands Mitch? What’s it showing?

 

[NCSNOW]

Oh to have had a cold feed for this. Someone could of had a shot at perosnal/backyard history maker.

 

[weatherfide]

Oh to have had a cold feed for this. Someone could of had a shot at perosnal/backyard history maker.

I'm actually glad there is no cold air around for this one. I'm going to be too far west to get in on the rain. There is a sharp cut-off along a Thomaston, GA to Athens, GA line, much like a landfall from a tropical system. It would suck beyond belief watching Milledgeville, GA get 24" of snow while I sit under mostly cloudy skies.

 

[JHS]

The UKMET went east about 75 miles with precip. This thing is going to continue that trend and go back where it was a couple of days ago.

 

[BullCityWx]

Euro is a good 150 miles SSE of its position through hour 90ish.

 

[WeatherNC]

Any would-be climatologists know what the min pressure record for the state of NC is during the month of December?

 

[JHS]

Euro is a good 150 miles SSE of its position through hour 90ish.

Yep, and if this continues Sunday will end up dry for most of GA and western NC and SC. This will probably end up another 150+ miles east before it is over.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Yep, and if this continues Sunday will end up dry for most of GA and western NC and SC. This will probably end up another 150+ miles east before it is over.

I doubt that

 

[NoSnowATL]

Yep, and if this continues Sunday will end up dry for most of GA and western NC and SC. This will probably end up another 150+ miles east before it is over.

lock the thread. Its over.

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro still advertising the novelty flake on its way out. 2-3 inches snow in the mtns: Heavy rains across NC and believe a 975mb right on SE NC Coast with 60mph wind gust on the coastal waters. Big erosion event

 

[SD]

Euro still advertising the novelty flake on its way out. 2-3 inches snow in the mtns: Heavy rains across NC and believe a 975mb right on SE NC Coast with 60mph wind gust on the coastal waters. Big erosion event

I'm not sure 2m temps will play nice with this would be better if the trailing system got a little farther SW but it's a chance at least

 

[accu35]

I know it’s the Nam but already at 992 @60

 

[JHS]

Not sure what make of the 18z NAM. The low is way south and offshore, but it is the wettest model now for much of GA and western NC and SC.

 

[iGRXY]

I think we get a good swath of moisture as the upper dynamics are screaming with this thing. SE flow pushing up the mountains scream overperformer in the foothills, upstate, and NE Georgia rain wise.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I think we get a good swath of moisture as the upper dynamics are screaming with this thing. SE flow pushing up the mountains scream overperformer in the foothills, upstate, and NE Georgia rain wise.

Yep with any elevation there is going to be precip enhancement

 

[Chazwin]

Not sure what make of the 18z NAM. The low is way south and offshore, but it is the wettest model now for much of GA and western NC and SC.

I think it’s catching on what are going to be some very strong upper dynamics and strong jet. As with most of these storms, moisture will be push farther west than models show outside 72 hours. As for the track, I’m still betting on right along the coast… still some fairly warm waters creating a good baroclinic zone for a low to follow

 

[Rain Cold]

Euro looks like some decent gradient wind potential in central/eastern NC.

 

[tractor girl]

18Z GFS keeps the low further south.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

18Z GFS keeps the low further south.

View attachment 138623

Looks to shift a little further inland into SC though.

 

[JHS]

Looks to shift a little further inland into SC though.

The back edge of the rain shield is about 25 miles west of the 12z. The center also heads toward Lake Erie again. It looks like the worst wind stays mostly east of about I-77 though.

 

[Shaggy]

Euro looks like some decent gradient wind potential in central/eastern NC.

Wilmington had a good write up. 40-50 is what theyvare saying is possible with higher along the beaches of course. There they are saying 60-65kts

 

[Shaggy]

Wilmington write up

Not only does Sunday`s coastal storm start in the Gulf of Mexico
(usually a good indicator of a system that will be strong as it
turns up the East Coast)-but it forms south of both Texas and
Florida. Confidence is thus increasing that significant local
effects can be expected. Coastal flooding/beach erosion seem the
most likely as does strong winds especially along the immediate
coast.

The system will strengthen at a moderate pace as it moves across the
Gulf and Florida as it is only being driven by the southernmost mid
level jet and a weak (85kt) and zonal upper jet across the Gulf.
However as it turns to the NE a much stronger northern 500mb
trough starts to phase in, and the upper level jetting over FL
becomes increasingly cyclonic and accelerates to 100kt,
hastening the surface deepening. Given these factors feel some
guidance is playing catchup on the storm`s intensity save for
perhaps the EC which brings a 978mb low into the Cape Fear
Region Sunday night. Winds should peak ahead of the low`s
passage so highest gusts slated for midday Sunday (though an
overall slowing trend has been occurring in guidance). With last
Sunday`s system winds at 925mb were a good proxy for the wind
gusts that occurred with the overnight convection. Lapse rates
look much weaker with this system but the rain intensity may
overcome and mix winds down again from this height as it did
Sunday. If so then fairly widespread gusts of 40-50mph appear
possible with even higher gusts possible along the immediate
coast (the GFS has 60-65kt)...again some emphasis added to the
word `possible`. Some of these wind speeds are noted in many
`max wind swath` progs. A Wind Advisory does appear likely for
at least part of the area. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are
likely but with such dry antecedent conditions flooding should
stay confined to minor/nuisance.

 

[SD]

beast
View attachment 121423.mp4

 

[SD]

These were the highest wind gusts I could catch on the GFS

 

[SD]

and the 18z gfs rain

 

[JHS]

The 18z Euro stays east. Most of the GSP county warning area is under 1 inch of rain now.

 

[accu35]

The 18z Euro stays east. Most of the GSP county warning area is under 1 inch of rain now.

I think a mix between the Gfs and Euro will put NC pretty much in the heart of it

 

[Chazwin]

The 18z Euro stays east. Most of the GSP county warning area is under 1 inch of rain now.

For whatever reason the EURO does not do a good job on the westward expanse of precip amounts on the west side of these coastal storms. A storm taking the track of the EURO should put down plenty of rainfall all the way back to the mountains with the upper dynamics and a strong SE upslope flow ahead of the storm.

 

[Tarheel1]

Think I mentioned this the other day.?

 

[Chazwin]

Think I mentioned this the other day.?View attachment 138637

I know a lot of us have talked about what ifs on this one, but still… If there were just a marginal cold air mass to work with for this, I think this storm would be truly historic for eastern SC upstate, CLT metro and up to the Triad.

 

[JHS]

The 0z NAM is northwest with the center, but much farther east with back of rain shield. There is little to nothing on the west or north side of the center as it moves up. Everything stays east and northeast of the center and the NW 3rd of GA and almost all of AL misses on this run. Under .50 west of Greenville in SC.