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Pattern 12/15-19 Coastal!!!!!

NCSNOW said:
12z Euro adding biggly to the 3 inches mby just got this past Sunday
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Yep. Say goodbye to the drought.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Looks like the 18Z GFS will come in NW too. Crawling the AL/GA line.
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The center goes right up 221 it looks like from upstate SC into western NC as a 986MB low. 2-4 inches of rain for most of us. That inland track takes any chance of snow away though, with warmer air farther west.
 
weatherfide said:
Even the highest peaks of WV are rain. Rain all the way up to Canada. It's all rain until backside moisture hits on Monday night. Are you staying there through Tuesday?
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You’re right. The tracks on both the 18z ICON and GFS are in no way conducive for snow in the mountains, even on the highest peaks. Too much of strong southeasterly flow ahead of the low push in a lot of warm air with it. There could be some backside NW flow snow showers, but honestly the cold that’s on the backside is very marginal at best
 
SD said:
That jet View attachment 138586
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I think maybe we had better hope this stops coming west because this could become a major problem with severe. Right now, most cape is offshore, but that could change. As it stands only areas close to the coast would have severe weather with this.

Edit: FLA may get hit with severe with this track with up to around 500 cape in some parts of the state.
 
The 18z Euro at 90 hours is a little farther west again. A 995MB low about 50 miles NW of Tampa with moderate to heavy rain over much of GA and the Carolinas at 12z Sunday.
 
Looks like the deck will get re-shuffled. Much better chance of things getting better than worse.
TW
 
JHS said:
The center goes right up 221 it looks like from upstate SC into western NC as a 986MB low. 2-4 inches of rain for most of us. That inland track takes any chance of snow away though, with warmer air farther west.
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There was no chance of snow on this, ever! 850 0 line is in Canada
 
Tarheel1 said:
There was no chance of snow on this, ever! 850 0 line is in Canada
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I think he’s referring to the chance that GSP had previously mentioned for the highest peaks in NC… above 5,000 ft. Even that now seems impossible with such an inland track. On the other hand does seem to be a pocket of colder 850s over the Ohio Valley that could be tapped into and contribute to some backside NW flow snow showers, but even that would be very limited
 
0z gfs was little west again this run putting western Alabama into play
 
GFS is way inland compared to the rest of the guidance, even its own ensemble. However I do notice the 0z GFS ensemble seems to be coming northwest through 78 hours
 
Jrips2710 said:
GFS is way inland compared to the rest of the guidance, even its own ensemble. However I do notice the 0z GFS ensemble seems to be coming northwest through 78 hours
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I see a few members trying to effect Louisiana lol
 
Euro has caved to the mighty GFS on tonights 0Z run83B16735-62E2-4B35-8366-C5C725FC3231.png8845AE97-30D0-40BF-912E-80366D6C73F0.png
 
That's 1 foot+ totals on the Balsams per Euro. As you head west out of Waynesville toward Sylva, you can get on the parkway. Hang a right and it will take you straight up to 6,000 feet ( waterlock Knob ). You chasers if your insane enough can park at the gate if its locked and take a nice Everest like hike up the road. Don't recommend. Also Maggie valley ( cattaloochee is right under that lollipop.
 
NCSNOW said:
That's 1 foot+ totals on the Balsams per Euro. As you head west out of Waynesville toward Sylva, you can get on the parkway. Hang a right and it will take you straight up to 6,000 feet ( waterlock Knob ). You chasers if your insane enough can park at the gate if its locked and take a nice Everest like hike up the road. Don't recommend. Also Maggie valley ( cattaloochee is right under that lollipop.
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If it played out this way, Cataloochee would be the way to go. Rent a pair of skis and call it a day.
 
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