-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern 12/15-19 Coastal!!!!!
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
JHS
Member
Not sure what make of the 18z NAM. The low is way south and offshore, but it is the wettest model now for much of GA and western NC and SC.
iGRXY
Member
I think we get a good swath of moisture as the upper dynamics are screaming with this thing. SE flow pushing up the mountains scream overperformer in the foothills, upstate, and NE Georgia rain wise.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep with any elevation there is going to be precip enhancement
I think it’s catching on what are going to be some very strong upper dynamics and strong jet. As with most of these storms, moisture will be push farther west than models show outside 72 hours. As for the track, I’m still betting on right along the coast… still some fairly warm waters creating a good baroclinic zone for a low to follow
Euro looks like some decent gradient wind potential in central/eastern NC.
tractor girl
Member
18Z GFS keeps the low further south.
Looks to shift a little further inland into SC though.
JHS
Member
The back edge of the rain shield is about 25 miles west of the 12z. The center also heads toward Lake Erie again. It looks like the worst wind stays mostly east of about I-77 though.
Shaggy
Member
Wilmington had a good write up. 40-50 is what theyvare saying is possible with higher along the beaches of course. There they are saying 60-65kts
Shaggy
Member
Wilmington write up
Not only does Sunday`s coastal storm start in the Gulf of Mexico
(usually a good indicator of a system that will be strong as it
turns up the East Coast)-but it forms south of both Texas and
Florida. Confidence is thus increasing that significant local
effects can be expected. Coastal flooding/beach erosion seem the
most likely as does strong winds especially along the immediate
coast.
The system will strengthen at a moderate pace as it moves across the
Gulf and Florida as it is only being driven by the southernmost mid
level jet and a weak (85kt) and zonal upper jet across the Gulf.
However as it turns to the NE a much stronger northern 500mb
trough starts to phase in, and the upper level jetting over FL
becomes increasingly cyclonic and accelerates to 100kt,
hastening the surface deepening. Given these factors feel some
guidance is playing catchup on the storm`s intensity save for
perhaps the EC which brings a 978mb low into the Cape Fear
Region Sunday night. Winds should peak ahead of the low`s
passage so highest gusts slated for midday Sunday (though an
overall slowing trend has been occurring in guidance). With last
Sunday`s system winds at 925mb were a good proxy for the wind
gusts that occurred with the overnight convection. Lapse rates
look much weaker with this system but the rain intensity may
overcome and mix winds down again from this height as it did
Sunday. If so then fairly widespread gusts of 40-50mph appear
possible with even higher gusts possible along the immediate
coast (the GFS has 60-65kt)...again some emphasis added to the
word `possible`. Some of these wind speeds are noted in many
`max wind swath` progs. A Wind Advisory does appear likely for
at least part of the area. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are
likely but with such dry antecedent conditions flooding should
stay confined to minor/nuisance.
Not only does Sunday`s coastal storm start in the Gulf of Mexico
(usually a good indicator of a system that will be strong as it
turns up the East Coast)-but it forms south of both Texas and
Florida. Confidence is thus increasing that significant local
effects can be expected. Coastal flooding/beach erosion seem the
most likely as does strong winds especially along the immediate
coast.
The system will strengthen at a moderate pace as it moves across the
Gulf and Florida as it is only being driven by the southernmost mid
level jet and a weak (85kt) and zonal upper jet across the Gulf.
However as it turns to the NE a much stronger northern 500mb
trough starts to phase in, and the upper level jetting over FL
becomes increasingly cyclonic and accelerates to 100kt,
hastening the surface deepening. Given these factors feel some
guidance is playing catchup on the storm`s intensity save for
perhaps the EC which brings a 978mb low into the Cape Fear
Region Sunday night. Winds should peak ahead of the low`s
passage so highest gusts slated for midday Sunday (though an
overall slowing trend has been occurring in guidance). With last
Sunday`s system winds at 925mb were a good proxy for the wind
gusts that occurred with the overnight convection. Lapse rates
look much weaker with this system but the rain intensity may
overcome and mix winds down again from this height as it did
Sunday. If so then fairly widespread gusts of 40-50mph appear
possible with even higher gusts possible along the immediate
coast (the GFS has 60-65kt)...again some emphasis added to the
word `possible`. Some of these wind speeds are noted in many
`max wind swath` progs. A Wind Advisory does appear likely for
at least part of the area. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are
likely but with such dry antecedent conditions flooding should
stay confined to minor/nuisance.
These were the highest wind gusts I could catch on the GFS
and the 18z gfs rain
JHS
Member
The 18z Euro stays east. Most of the GSP county warning area is under 1 inch of rain now.
For whatever reason the EURO does not do a good job on the westward expanse of precip amounts on the west side of these coastal storms. A storm taking the track of the EURO should put down plenty of rainfall all the way back to the mountains with the upper dynamics and a strong SE upslope flow ahead of the storm.
Think I mentioned this the other day.?
I know a lot of us have talked about what ifs on this one, but still… If there were just a marginal cold air mass to work with for this, I think this storm would be truly historic for eastern SC upstate, CLT metro and up to the Triad.
JHS
Member
The 0z NAM is northwest with the center, but much farther east with back of rain shield. There is little to nothing on the west or north side of the center as it moves up. Everything stays east and northeast of the center and the NW 3rd of GA and almost all of AL misses on this run. Under .50 west of Greenville in SC.