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stormcentral said:
Yeah, there are ensemble members giving us love and I like to see them, but still, look at the ensemble mean and the op.
I'm waiting to see the 12z Euro map for CHA...
Just saw it. That doesn't get us over the 1" hump, either...
Not a forecast from me, but 2-4 inches between modeling/blends still looks possible for CAE. I may be a bit generous with that idea though.
Wherever the heavy precipitation with just the right temperatures set up will be important between 0.5-1inch of actual snow and heavier amounts from there. I feel a sweet spot could actually be around Florence. Still a bit early and the models are still shifting temps & moisture axis.
Wherever the heavy precipitation with just the right temperatures set up will be important between 0.5-1inch of actual snow and heavier amounts from there. I feel a sweet spot could actually be around Florence. Still a bit early and the models are still shifting temps & moisture axis.
GFS has been rock solid over the past several runs and the other models have not been so consistent. After seeing today's EURO 12Z run and the waffling CMC/NAM I have a lot more confidence in the GFS/GEFS solutions. Low may tick farther NW and as others have stated on this board, I think QPF will be a little more robust and the precip shield will be a little more N/NW when all said and done. The cold temps will be there - not too worried about that. I live in Atlanta and I see 1-3" around the city, heavier amounts on south and east sides of town. Not out of the realm of possibility that KATL could get 5/6".
My odds: 70% chance ATL gets 1-3"
30% chance ATL gets more 3-6"
10% chance we get nothing (could be too warm or moisture stays to our south).
FFC should issue a WSW tomorrow based on the information available as of now. It could still change, but trends as we get closer are encouraging.
My odds: 70% chance ATL gets 1-3"
30% chance ATL gets more 3-6"
10% chance we get nothing (could be too warm or moisture stays to our south).
FFC should issue a WSW tomorrow based on the information available as of now. It could still change, but trends as we get closer are encouraging.
Storm5 said:
When I toggle between hours 84 (12z) and 96 (0Z) - I see less total precip for JeffCo on north in AL. What am I not looking at that shows us with a tick "up" in precip? I see the shift south but it appears to me that the precip heads south as well?
Shawn said:Posted elsewhere so will link here. Great precip through this area, just a bit warm:
Today's 12z On the Left. Last night's 00z on the Right.
Yea even the local people have said temps shouldn't be an issue. I hope they are right.
FLO said:Shawn said:Posted elsewhere so will link here. Great precip through this area, just a bit warm:
Today's 12z On the Left. Last night's 00z on the Right.
Yea even the local people have said temps shouldn't be an issue. I hope they are right.
Find it hard to believe we get over an inch of liquid as all snow. The para gfs from 06z shows around half an inch as snow for a chunk of us.. but.. The cut off line of snow is getting very close though. Here:
Shawn said:FLO said:Shawn said:Posted elsewhere so will link here. Great precip through this area, just a bit warm:
Today's 12z On the Left. Last night's 00z on the Right.
Yea even the local people have said temps shouldn't be an issue. I hope they are right.
Find it hard to believe we get over an inch of liquid as all snow. The para gfs from 06z shows around half an inch as snow for a chunk of us.. but.. The cut off line of snow is getting very close though. Here:
Yea I am losing faith. CAE is always on the wrong side of that snow line, so I expect nothing less.
FLO said:Shawn said:FLO said:Shawn said:Posted elsewhere so will link here. Great precip through this area, just a bit warm:
Today's 12z On the Left. Last night's 00z on the Right.
Yea even the local people have said temps shouldn't be an issue. I hope they are right.
Find it hard to believe we get over an inch of liquid as all snow. The para gfs from 06z shows around half an inch as snow for a chunk of us.. but.. The cut off line of snow is getting very close though. Here:
Yea I am losing faith. CAE is always on the wrong side of that snow line, so I expect nothing less.
Well, temps may not be handled completely right by these models so there's that. CAE seemed confident last night that the guidance was a bit warm. I've learned to use Newberry as a dividing line over the years. Sadly.
Shawn said:FLO said:Shawn said:FLO said:Shawn said:Posted elsewhere so will link here. Great precip through this area, just a bit warm:
Today's 12z On the Left. Last night's 00z on the Right.
Yea even the local people have said temps shouldn't be an issue. I hope they are right.
Find it hard to believe we get over an inch of liquid as all snow. The para gfs from 06z shows around half an inch as snow for a chunk of us.. but.. The cut off line of snow is getting very close though. Here:
Yea I am losing faith. CAE is always on the wrong side of that snow line, so I expect nothing less.
Well, temps may not be handled completely right by these models so there's that. CAE seemed confident last night that the guidance was a bit warm. I've learned to use Newberry as a dividing line over the years. Sadly.
Newberry almost always hits the jackpot.
Unless you are in NC/SC/extreme eastern GA the actual low track doesn't matter. For instance a hundred miles of either way won't change much. For Us in MS, AL and the rest of GA this is a overrunning, SW flow set up which is clearly visible from the QPF patterns. We need the wave to dig more and establish a stronger SW flow while having a deeper push of cold air. Unless it really amps WAA or CAA from the system itself will be minimal for us at least.
Awesome. Ty for that. Ya we don't get Nada but have the best moisture. It's the way it goes. LmaoShawn said:Posted elsewhere so will link here. Great precip through this area, just a bit warm:
Today's 12z On the Left. Last night's 00z on the Right.
Storm5 said:outside of NC, georgia and alabama really want something like the gfs/gefs to verify . all models work for NCARCC said:
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Thanks.....these are the comments that are most helpful to a novice like me