Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

Anyone else having problems posting pictures from Tapatalk? I wanted to post the latest update from Nashville.


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I have not been able to post an image from Tapatalk since early AM...

 

[Shawn]

Nam for ATL

 

[Shawn]

The last time I've seen a model be as consistent as the GFS and it's ensembles have been, we saw a similar solution at verification time. I think it's possible that this is the way it goes but with at least a little bit of a north correction.

 

[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

 

[Shawn]

euro looks pretty food so far. energy looks a tick SW but it looks juicy at the moment

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[Shawn]

WPC says toss the ukie

they are tossing the 00z run. not the ukie in general

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What was their reason for tossing the 0Z UKMET run?

 

[Shawn]

all 12z gefs members are hits here except one.

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Seriously, I had given up. Where is the snow?

 

[Shawn]

If anything I think the Euro is stronger with the s/w out west compared to other models thus far....

 

[Shawn]

euro looks similar to 00z so far

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[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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[Shawn]

Does anyone have the Map for ice off the 12z GFS


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What county are you from

 

[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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Almost 5 inches of snow

 

[Shawn]

Lol WTVC channel 9 calling for a dusting KCHA & SE TN ?

Unfortunately, that is what most of the guidance I've seen is pointing to... Even the Euro is not showing the "up to" 3 inches that WRCB is saying. I'm hoping the Hi-Res models save us, but right now I'm having a hard time getting on board with anyone that  says more than an inch for CHA. Obviously, things can still change and I hope they do!

EDIT: out of the American models I've seen so far, the NAM 4km is the big winner for Chattanooga with a whopping 0.725"...

 

[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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Its like 5 inches of snow lol not meh

 

[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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That's liquid so 10:1 snow ratio for that area would be roughly 4 1/2 inches of snow I believe is how that works

 

[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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Almost 5 inches of snow

Am I reading it wrong? I thought it was cumulative.


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[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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That is all in liquid QPF, so that is a big hit to ATL

 

[Shawn]

Got this from our subforum at another site. Very interesting if true.

"GaWx did some research on Lows taking the path of the GFS shows and found it happened once every 10 years since 1950. Last time was Feb 2010. It only happened one time ever with a +AO/NAO which I believe we are in now."


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[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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A half inch liquid equivalent falling as snow isn't meh, IMO.

 

[Shawn]

Does anyone have the Map for ice off the 12z GFS


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What county are you from

Washington county


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[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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That's liquid so 10:1 snow ratio for that area would be roughly 4 1/2 inches of snow I believe is how that works

And that's assuming all of it sticks

 

[Shawn]

1Z Euro is slightly colder in the prestorm stages.

 

[Shawn]

Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again

yeah especially since it has been so consistent. if it turns out to be wrong... then it has been consistently wrong... and is therefore garbage

If it verifies does that mean we should never trust the Euro again since it is showing the opposite?

probs should note i'm half joking, sorry if i came across as a twit. nevertheless it would be quite the failure for the gfs if it does turn out to be wrong
edit: and also for the euro too. in all seriousness don't think this will affect my overall perception of the models negatively, it is what it is

 

[Shawn]

12Z Euro is a little colder and the sfc low is slightly south of the 0Z Euro. The high pressure to the north is a little stronger.

 

[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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A half inch liquid equivalent falling as snow isn't meh, IMO.

Weenie mistake. I didn't realize it was liquid equivalent which certainly makes sense and certainly ain't meh.


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[Shawn]

Thru 48 flat with little stronger slp

 

[Shawn]

Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again

yeah especially since it has been so consistent. if it turns out to be wrong... then it has been consistently wrong... and is therefore garbage

If it verifies does that mean we should never trust the Euro again since it is showing the opposite?

probs should note i'm half joking, sorry if i came across as a twit. nevertheless it would be quite the failure for the gfs if it does turn out to be wrong

Especially considering it's shown the same idea for several runs with a few tweaks here and there.

 

[Shawn]

Even more stream separation this run out west, vort max looks stronger thru 48-60 HR

 

[Shawn]

Yeah it's gonna be a little south of 00z

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[Shawn]

precip shield a little north of 00z for us back towards my area

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[Shawn]

Yeah it's gonna be a little south of 00z

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Could it be tipping it's cap to a more GFS solution???

 

[Shawn]

Sounds like maybe a little GFS trend

 

[Shawn]

Dare I say it, is the Euro about to blink.

 

[Shawn]

the 72 hour position of the 12Z Euro is about 50 miles south of and about 1 mb weaker than the 0Z Euro.

 

[Shawn]

Make sure Brick isn't about jump.

 

[Shawn]

The EURO may just be starting to cave some to the GFS. Euro looks further south this run.

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[Shawn]

Im worried about a warm nose

 

[Shawn]

same result for those of to the west as 00z . but I'll take that run .

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[Shawn]

This run definitely trended in the right direction in more ways than one thru 72 HR. Stronger vort max, more amped wave, and a degree or two colder everywhere esp over GA & the Carolinas. Good start

 

[Shawn]

Lots of precip through Midlands of SC wasted with warmer temps before changeover.