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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Something tells me this isn't going to end well for us in the coming days...I hope I'm wrong.


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Webberweather53 said:
There's a bit more phasing with the northern branch this run... Starting to give a nod to ECMWF beyond 30 HR
18z
namconus_z500_vort_us_41.png



New run


namconus_z500_vort_us_39.png
Click to expand...
Yeah that's a clear euro look

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Definitely a step towards the ECMWF/CMC camp thru 48 HR. Every run has been progressively trending that way over the course of the past few days on the NAM
 
I got attacked for giving bad PBP earlier talking about watching the 500mb charts and making sure the Euro solution from earlier wasn't right! Late range NAM I am not a good fan of though. GFS will be telling soon.

We do not want to see it start to go more towards the Euro. The last run was actually not bad for a lot of deep South areas to get snow. If we see a noticeable trend to have even more Northern Stream interaction, that is bad.
 
Looks like the northern stream is further west this run which would make it easier for stream interaction as the NAM is moving the energy a good bit faster

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I'm back thanks Shawn....

and as SD mentioned earlier there will be some interaction just how much is probably yet to be seen, hopefully the Euro gives us a tad bit of separation tonight and steps towards a model compromise
 
NAM is getting squashed right now....part in the northern branch and the other part trying to tuck west...not a good start for sure.
 
I have very low confidence that the GFS is going to look good tonight...


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If everything goes completely to the Euro and there's no meeting in the middle, then there's no reason to ever look at the GFS again.
 
This isn't channeling the energy as quickly or as severely as the CMC so by 84 we might have a decent look.
 
Once again, it's too early to start to panic.

If the interaction starts showing up for multiple runs consecutively, then we can begin to raise alarms. Plus, were looking at the NAM beyond 48 hours.
 
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